19 December 2016

Update no.783

Update from the Heartland
No.783
12.12.16 – 18.12.16
To all,
The Lake Behind Our Home
[file: IMG_7435.JPG]
            The image above was taken Sunday morning – our first snow and sub-zero temperatures – and, it is not even officially winter, yet.  The photograph does not do justice to the actual scene.  The early morning sunlight made ice crystals on the frozen lake actually sparkle like diamonds scattered across the surface.  The time has come to become snowbirds.

Happy Chanukkah
Merry Christmas
Happy New Year to all.

            This is a rather thin edition.  It happens from time to time . . . not much new to talk about this week.  The only substance is in the Comments Section below.

            News from the economic front:
-- The Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point to between 0.50% and 0.75% on Thursday – the first increase in a year.  The Fed rate hike will cause other household and business borrowing costs to rise as well.  They also indicated the improving economic outlook suggests the Fed will likely raise short-term rates next year and perhaps at a faster pace.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.782:
Comment to the Blog:
“One more comment on the Electoral College: I have seen several references this week to ‘Federalist 68,’ presumably part of the Federalist Papers, wherein Hamilton argues for the purpose of the Electoral College being specifically to weed out the likes of Trump. I assume that ‘strict construction’ Supreme Court Justices might see fit to ignore that, but we have no way to know yet.
“It would be willful blindness to ignore the chance of international meddling in our election, and Russia is as good a candidate as any, except possibly Israel. Manipulating the affairs of other nations has a long history, even if we only count those who were caught. You make a good point that only Democratic Party emails were released. In ascending order of likelihood, direct changes in vote counts by outsiders are unlikely but nowadays are possible; influence on state or local officials' handling of precinct changes, allowed or disallowed votes, etc., are a bit more likely due to the Electoral College; controlling Wikileaks' choice of materials to release could have occurred, based on results; and intense pressure on FBI Director Comey to re-open his investigation in such a public way, thus influencing voters' choices, seems almost likely.
“Given both of these issues plus the conflicts of interest with Trump and his office, with Trump's appointments of campaign contributors, and among the appointees with their offices, all I can say is, ‘Fasten your safety belts. It's going to be a bumpy night.’”
My response to the Blog:
            Correct.  Federalist no.68 was written by Alexander Hamilton and titled: “The Mode of Electing the President.”  While the Federalist Papers are not law, they are a reflection of the Framers’ thinking.  Hamilton used words like: “. . . as little opportunity as possible to tumult and disorder.”  Further, Hamilton stated: “Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption.”  He refers in generality to the electoral process; there are two strongly implied points.  1.) A deliberate, independent process was necessary to achieve the objectives noted above.  2.) Electors have the higher purpose of ensuring the person to be elected is eminently qualified to be president.  Yet, the fallacy is Hamilton’s logic is, what are those qualifications and how are they measured?  Thus, it is left to the judgment of the electors, which means there is the theoretical potential of just 535 citizens defying the popular vote and electing the next president, or forcing the election to the House of Representatives.
            I can agree with your observations regarding the potential for foreign interference in our elections.  In this instance, the voters have to be susceptible to the calculated leaks, but such selection is grotesquely unfair.  Imagine, if you will, what reaction would there be if the exact same shoe was on the other foot?
            I absolutely concur with your conclusion.  This is going to be a rough ride.
 . . . a follow-up comment:
“Just to add emphasis to the issue, someone from the cyber-security firm that caught the hacking appeared on CBSN a few minutes ago (roughly 7:40 a.m. 12-13-2016) and stated that the hackers acquired Republican as well as Democratic information but only passed the Democratic information to Wikileaks. That leaves them with Republican information that might have all kinds of blackmail potential on the candidate who appears to have won the Electoral College.
“It's worth noting that this is something new to human experience because of the speed of computing and the interconnection. Even the best and fastest investigation into an affair like this would have taken months or years longer in the past and become a footnote to history rather than the central thread. The theft and use of the information would also have been a much slower process. We have entered unknown territory.”
 . . . my follow-up response:
            Pass on only DNC information . . . what does that say?  Blackmail potential . . . perhaps . . . but the election is nearly over.  It appears the Wisconsin re-count showed no abnormalities.
            New in human experience . . . absolutely . . . unknown territory indeed!
            As you said earlier, we are in for a rough ride.

Another contribution:
“Early in the campaign I wrote about my assertion that all the chatter from the left about Putin favoring Trump was easily explained by Putin's cleverness in working for a public reaction favoring Hillary, whose succession to the weak Obama he no doubt wished for instead of the strong unpredictable capitalist who promised a great America.  I still think this could be one explanation for whatever part the Russians played in the famous hacking caper that is giving the media so much fun these days.”
My reply:
            Not just the media, my friend.
            There are myriad perspectives regarding the “famous hacking caper” as you call it.  I shall not, nay I cannot, argue with your perspective.  I will only say there are very tangible reasons only DNC internal communications were disclosed.  On 7.October.2016, the Director of National Intelligence, endorsed by the chiefs of 17 U.S. intelligence agencies, signed a letter that clearly identified the Russian government on numerous electronic intrusions into the political / election apparatus of the United States.  Just the agreement of the Intelligence Community (IC) verges upon unprecedented.  Let us not GAF-off the participation of Russia simply because we liked the outcome.  How would you feel about the DNI memo if Trump lost after winning the popular vote by 2.5 million votes (2%) and the Russian hacking had been against the RNC?
            I’m just sayin’.
 . . . a follow-up contribution:
“I agree 100%, Cap.  I just hope the real professionals (the ones not bending to political pressures) in our intelligence community realize that Putin is probably smarter than many of them, and that pure business profit motives aside, he surely would have preferred eight more years of weakness in the White House over the rogue, unpredictable tough-talking Trump.  This leads to the conclusion that the influence he intended was to scare voters toward Clinton by pretending to openly favor Trump.  He is smart enough to have kept secret any real favoring of Trump because of the damage it would have done to Trumps campaign.  Simple?  No, nothing is simple.  In any event, I personally believe a cordial relationship between heads of state is a positive thing, something strangely akin to honor among thieves.”
 . . . my follow-up reply:
            Politics within a democratic society is the art of compromise for the common good.  We seem to have lost our appreciation for the artform.
            We shall respectfully disagree regarding the Obama administration being weak years.  He was certainly not afraid to pull the trigger when it was appropriate – examples abound.  His efforts to avoid war were not weakness, but wisdom and courage.  Time shall tell whether his approach was successful.
            Interesting hypothesis regarding Russia’s influence in our election.
            One way or another . . . we shall bear witness to this “cordial relationship” of which you speak.  Yes, absolutely, I would prefer that Russia and the United States were respectful allies for the common good, rather than adversaries, but that is a bilateral endeavor . . . cannot survive in unilateral form.  My concern in the soon-to-be present case is the quid pro quo of that cordial relationship.  Lining the Trump family pockets is NOT within the range of acceptable outcomes.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

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