Update no.771

Update from the Heartland

No.771

19.9.16 – 25.9.16

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

            The follow-up news items:

-- Independent, open-source investigators with Bellingcat believe they have calculated the launch site location of the Russian Buk Mark 1 Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) system (NATO: SA-11) that shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 (17.July.2014) [657, 665, 722].  They believe the missile that brought down MH17 was fired from a field south of the town of Snizhne, in the contested Donetsk region of Eastern Ukraine – in rebel-held territory.  So, whether a Russian or a rebel crew fired the fatal missile is immaterial.  The Russians either fired or supplied the Buk SAM system to whoever fired the missile.  It is my opinion only, since I cannot prove it, that the Russians operated that SAM system and fired the fatal missile in an airspace denial operation on behalf of the so-called rebels in Donetsk.

Reconstruction of MH17 Cockpit

[File: MH17 contruct.jpg]

[Photo credit: Getty Images]

In the associated, FYI category: I chose to add the MH17 image above for one reason only.  This is a near perfect example of what happens to an aircraft that is hit by an SAM, like the Russian Buk SAM system, which is roughly equivalent to the U.S. Standard and Patriot SAM systems.  Note the numerous penetrations on the upper left side and the shredding in that area of the fuselage (compared to the almost pristine lower fuselage).  This image is exactly why I have contended a U.S. Navy Standard missile could NOT have brought down TWA 800 (17.July.1996) – the associated damage would have been virtually impossible to cover-up.

-- A French appeals court ordered former Société Générale trader Jérôme Kerviel to pay €1M (US$1.12M) to his former employer.  As part of his sentencing in October 2010, a French court ordered Kerviel to repay the €4.9B to the bank – the amount the bank lost in the affair.  Kerviel argued that he could not bear sole responsibility for the bank's entire loss from unauthorized, risky trades in 2008 [353, 460], so the latest court ruling was quite a recovery for Kerviel.  The legal wrangling continues between Kerviel and his former employer.  This was one of the precursor events for the Great Recession.

            What is it that is so hard for some folks to comprehend . . . compliance with a law enforcement officer’s orders is the best course of response, especially when the officer involved is aiming his pistol at you.  Non-compliance, no matter how passively aggressive such conduct might be, is a threatening action in that the officer has no idea what the subject is thinking, his intentions, what weapons he has access to until he is cleared and secured.  The non-compliance threat has absolutely nothing to do with the pigmentation of a subject’s skin.  Now, we could argue, why is the law enforcement officer aiming his pistol at someone?  The reality is, the reason does NOT matter.  S/he feels threatened from some reason – situation, intelligence, action, whatever – it does not matter.  Many years ago, on a traffic stop, proper or not, I always got out my automobile and moved to the curb side of the car – out of respect for the officer being exposed on the street side.  Then, one day, decades ago, a police officer barked at me to stay in the car.  I did exactly as he instructed me to do.  Rather than rioting, perhaps community instruction sessions would be useful.  Every citizen, regardless of skin pigmentation or apparel, should simply comply with instructions from a law enforcement officer.  I believe that there would be near zero of these controversial officer-involved shooting if the subject simply complied with the officer’s instructions.

            News from the economic front:

-- The Bank of Japan announced an interest-rate target for 10-year government bonds, as part of a new policy framework to achieve its inflation objective of at least 2% annually.  The central bank also indicated it would continue quantitative easing until the target is met.  After the bank’s announcement, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond briefly rose above zero for the first time since March.

-- The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged.  In the central bank’s public statement, they said, “The [Fed] judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.”  The statement suggests there are internal divisions within the policy committee that leave the potential for a rate hike before year-end.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.770:

Comment to the Blog:

“Maybe I just don't take the presidential race quite as seriously as others with political interests. One reason is that either of the two major-party candidates will face a hostile Congress upon winning. Trump has been publicly disowned by enough Republicans that we might best consider him as an outsider who has taken the GOP nomination. However, should he achieve election, he's unlikely to accomplish anything the Republican Establishment opposes. Clinton continues to be popular with the Democratic Establishment who, however, do not control Congress and are gradually splitting along progressive versus centrist lines. (Regardless of platform statements, Clinton will act as a centrist. Her funding sources will permit nothing more.) Either of those two aligns with Wall Street, and either will permit the ‘too big to fail’ banks to bring the economy to its knees again. Neither will be able to repair our international image as a bully with a pitiful side. And neither will act on the climate issues that will ultimately make life far harder for everyone on the planet.”

My response to the Blog:

            That seems like a particularly cynical perspective; however, I must confess, you may well be correct; it is definitely plausible given the reality of what we have endured this silly season.  I certainly hope you are wrong, no matter who becomes the 45th POTUS, but regrettably, I suspect you are closer to being correct than wrong.

            It is most unfortunate and a serious disservice to the citizens of this Grand Republic that the federal Commission on Presidential Debates cannot find a more reasonable and representative threshold, or just ignore their money masters and do the right thing.  We need Gary Johnson and Jill Stein to be in those debates . . . a full 4-way.  As we approach the first debate, a week away, we know they will not be in the first debate, and I suspect they are not likely to “qualify” for any of the debates.  CNN has been the only major news source that has given the Libertarian and Green Party candidates a national / international stage.  I hope they can find the courage to do that again in the last two months of this silly season.  If nothing else, have Johnson and Stein debate each other.

Another contribution:

“Re: Herr Drumpf, the foreign policy establishment - both R’s and D’s - are becoming united against him.  And he has already caused a lot of damage to the United States with his comments.  That is clear.

“From the Post - Eliot Cohen, an active anti-Trump voice, said that he has never seen foreign-policy professionals so stridently hostile to a candidate.

“He is not only an ignoramus, but he’s a dangerous ignoramus who doesn’t know the first thing about foreign policy and doesn’t care and has some very dangerous instincts,” Cohen, who served in the George W. Bush administration, told The Washington Post in a recent interview. “Part of what is so dangerous about him is not just his ignorance and contempt for our alliances, but his failure to understand how important these have been to our security since 1945. And he has already done a lot of damage. Our allies are deeply shaken by this election.”

----------------------------------------------------

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/foreign-policy-experts-grow-more-hostile-to-trump-as-n-korea-tests-missiles/2016/09/18/401648de-778c-11e6-8149-b8d05321db62_story.html?wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

My reply:

            Herr Drumpf indeed!

            Subscribers and readers of this humble forum are shaken by the lack of respect and dignity in this particular silly season.  Unfortunately, it is the outrageousness of one particular candidate that has stimulated and attracted so many American citizens that apparently support that outrageousness – let’s shake this place down to the bricks attitude – have told the myriad pollsters they support his drivel.  We cannot say anything about the votes he got in the primaries, since far too many state primaries were open primaries and votes for him could have just as easily been Democrat leaning voters seeking a Republican candidate they figured would be easiest to beat in November; we cannot separate real votes from anti votes.  The same with polls, frankly.  People can and do say what they want the pollsters to hear.  The only way we are going to determine the end of this is by our votes on 8.November . . . and even then, I think what he has done will have lasting effects.  I suppose we ceased to be a nation of debate, negotiation, and compromise . . . oh, perhaps we could peg the transformation at Nixon’s paranoia and crimes, or maybe even Johnson’s foolish and costly attempt to do just enough . . . who knows.

            As I did in the 70’s, when so much was going wrong, I have to maintain my faith in this Grand Republic.  We shall endure no matter who becomes POTUS.  I would prefer not to return to those ugly days of the 60’s and 70’s, but I have faith we shall overcome.

A different contribution:

“Also, Trump exploiting fear and hate to gain power is exactly what Hitler did, and what every demagogue does.”

My response:

“Quite so.”

One last contribution:

“At least [Trump] got the media to give him free coverage of the people who support him … clever move!”

My reply:

            Yes, indeed.  We must give him credit for that.  He has played the media quite well.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

Update no.770

Update from the Heartland

No.770

12.9.16 – 18.9.16

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

            The follow-up news items:

-- A large section of B777 flap system was discovered on Pemba Island, off the coast of Tanzania, and was clearly identified by part and serial numbers as belonging to the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 (8.March.2014) [638, 691, 711, 716].  The images I saw of the new MH370 part found show comparatively little distress or damage.  The mounting physical evidence continues to point to a low speed, low energy, water impact, which in turn suggests the event was carried out by a skilled pilot in a controlled ditching, i.e., an intentional and deliberate act.  I doubt anyone else other than the pilot at the controls of that aircraft was alive at the end.  If this hypothesis is correct, it was clearly planned to generate as much cost as possible, and create as much uncertainty and lack of confidence in the international aviation system as possible.  Whether it was a terrorism attack, we may never know, since to public knowledge, no political motivation has been attributed to the incident.

            The Republican nominee is a salesman – first, foremost and always.  As the colloquialism goes, he can sell ice to the Eskimos.  My father saw salesman as the highest calling and most revered profession.  I do not share his opinion . . . probably because I never shared his opinion.  Performing the task of sales has always felt like putting my hand in another person’s pocket – a disgusting process to me.

            The latest example was the obscene effort by the Republican nominee to claim the “Birther” movement was created by Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential campaign and he – the heroic agent of right and good – put an end to the nonsense.  The sad reality is, there will be far too many American citizens who will actually believe his sales pitch, since it plays to their ill-informed preconceptions.  The reality is, the Republican nominee has been and remains the most prominent spokesman of the “Birther” movement, and his latest statement is nothing beyond deeply cynical hypocrisy.

            Every professional military person knows, almost as an axiom, that any successful defense must be a defense in depth – a single line, e.g., a wall – cannot and will not ever be successful.  Another near axiom: there is no such thing as a perfect system, thus the need for a multi-layered, defense in depth.  The insistence upon border security first before immigration reform defies logic, reason and any semblance of wanting to find a solution.  The reality is, there will be no improvement to the abysmal illegal alien situation until Congress produces better, more comprehensive laws AND provides the funding for the necessary enforcement of the new laws.  While I acknowledge the reflection of the failure of Congress to properly address immigration control represented in sanctuary cities, the notion and very basis of sanctuary cities cannot be accepted or tolerated.  Unless we intend to make the President a dictator and pass our version of the Enabling Act of 1933, the problems we face with border security and immigration control cannot and will not be solved by the Executive Branch.  The task belongs squarely with Congress – the Legislative Branch.  Lastly, the root cause of illegal alien entry to this Grand Republic is far more complex than we appear to be willing to recognize, and we will never find solutions until we recognize the root causes of illegal alien entry.

            An un-attributed poster stated:

509 citizens have been killed by cops this year.

484 were male 25 female.

238 were white 123 were black.

420 had known weapons, the rest unknown.

More than half were mentally ill or on drugs.

Almost all had prior criminal records.

We don’t have a race problem or a cop problem.

We have a MEDIA problem, a drug problem, a mental illness problem and an entitled welfare state breeding thugs problem.

I have no idea whether these are precise, factual statements, or even what timeframe “this year” refers to in the statement.  Nonetheless, I do believe the sentiment conveyed by the poster is accurate and spot on.  We need to deal with the root cause(s) of our societal issues rather than resort to emotional, knee-jerk actions that may make us feel good but have no prayer of dealing with the root cause of the problems.  Of all the video clips of police-involved firearm shootings I have seen in the last few years, far too many (a definite majority) have involved belligerent individuals defying police, resisting arrest and doing provocative (threatening) things.  Are there bad cops who exhibit racist conduct and shoot (often fatally) unarmed citizens?  Yes, absolutely!  Let us deal with those bad cops rather than condemn all police, who are simply doing their job to the best of their ability.  Everyone, including police officers, can improve and be more respectful of each other, but alienating police from the communities they serve will NEVER be a successful or worthy endeavor.  Emasculating law enforcement cannot be the answer, either.

            News from the economic front:

-- The U.S. Census Bureau reported the median annual household income increased in 2015 by 5.2%, after adjusting for inflation, or US$2,800 to US$56,500 – the first increase for family households in eight years.  The rise still leaves household incomes about 1.6% below the 2007 level, before the Great Recession of 2008.

-- The Bank of England held its benchmark rate steady, and suggested that the central bank may make further cuts later this year, if the U.K. economy continues to weaken.  The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark rate at 0.25%, after cutting it from 0.5% last month.

-- The Wall Street Journal reported that the board of the Bank of Japan is split regarding the path forward for the central bank in its 3½-year struggle to stimulate the country's sagging economy.  The WSJ also indicated there is mounting unease in the central banking world, where years of easy monetary policy have failed to achieve goals in Europe as well as Japan, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is fretting with how and when to follow through on a long-advertised tightening.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.769:

“To quote one of my favorites, ‘There you go again,’ (delivered with that head tilting nod and smile that Reagan was famous for):      You cannot resist advancing one of the insults of Mr. Trump that the left wing press has carried on loyally for the Clintons.  For you to remind us with  ‘Can anyone imagine Winston Churchill singing the praises of Adolf Hitler?’ is worthy of the best of Clintonian advisers, which I know you are not among.  I must respond with my own reminder: Trump is not a polished politician but a bombastic and tough deal maker accustomed to being himself and saying what he thinks without vetting the words for future political impact, and unfortunately he has not allowed himself the luxury of smart enough speech writers to dampen his careless tongue.  He did not receive the polish in British manners or education in international politics that Churchill had, is not as prepared for political leadership, and is nowhere near the statesman.  That said, Trump's other leadership traits and personal convictions are strong, and he is not as stupid as he sometimes seems in his tweets, as he foolishly tries to do the modern thing on social media.  What he admires in Putin is the way the man exercises his own convictions in his own way against the tide, leadership qualities unfortunately in Vladimir's case bolstering international expansionistic threats admittedly characteristic of Hitler.  I have never heard Trump express admiration for Putin's agenda or his dictatorial successes themselves.  Yes, Trump should never have used the word ‘admire’ if he indeed used it referring to Putin, because that word carries a connotation that extends to all Putin's intentions, and detractors jump on it predictably.   Wait, wait, I know you are wiser than that and truly sense a danger in Trump's daring to express any compliment for Vladimir Putin, but I for one am not concerned.  Did say he admired Hitler?  No.  I continue to weigh the alternative to The Donald and find her far more dangerous for far more far reaching reasons, at least so far.  We will never, at least in time for the election, learn the whole story about Hillary's latest extensive treachery, but how can you seriously want someone with her consistently selfish ambitions and socialistic views to be president?”

My response:

            What am I going to do?  Please, my opinion is not part of some mythical, vast, left wing conspiracy to thwart the will of the people.  My opinion was NOT driven by any media coverage.  I heard his words live from his mouth – no filter, no decoder ring, no interpretation, just his words.  No, he did not say he admired Hitler . . . the German dictator is not alive to flatter the Republican nominee or feed his ego . . . only one of the contemporary variety of dictators.

            Re: “extensive treachery.”  Really?

            Re: Clinton.  I have no idea why you assume my vote is going to Clinton, but you are entitled to believe as you wish.

Another contribution:

“Not just Der Führer, but Il Duce.  Mussolini promised to make the trains run on time. There actually are similarities between the R nominee and Benito - check the Pathe films and you tube videos.

“There is a reason he [Trump] was called ‘the Manhatten Mussolini.’”

My reply:

           Indeed!  There are similarities between all of the dictators of that era, including Uncle Joe (as Churchill and Roosevelt called him), although we rarely classify Stalin as fascist, since he was communist, but the similarities are there, nonetheless.  I suppose Il Duce is a better example, since to my knowledge, the Republican nominee has not killed or ordered killed anyone (yet).  While Mussolini could not meet that simple threshold, he was the least of the three from that era.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

Update no.769

Update from the Heartland

No.769

5.9.16 – 11.9.16

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

            Jeanne and I planned a little mini-‘vacay’ around the annual Kansas Book Festival in Topeka on Saturday.  Unfortunately, Mother Nature did not smile upon us this year.  Beginning Thursday evening, it began to rain with the worst of it coming early Friday morning.  When I got up 02:20, the rain gauge showed 2.25 inches and the lake was still at its normal level.  By dawn, the rain gauge was up to 4.5 inches and the lake was over the banks and approaching my threshold for installing our flood panels.  We watched and waited.  I even made a tour of the watershed that feeds our lake that yielded mixed results and was generally positive.  For reasons I could not determine, the lake was slow to crest and recede, and more rain was forecast for the evening.  So, long story short, we did not get the dogs to the boarding kennel and did not leave town as planned.  Then, the rain started, again, and added another 2.5 inches.  The lake level rose, again.  We were both already tired from a long day fretting about the flood and how to adjust our plans.  We agreed to take shifts watching the rain gauge and water level.  By the time my shift started, the rain stopped, the radar looked clear, and the lake was still short of the threshold for action.  We went to bed near midnight with an agreed to plan; if conditions were acceptable, I would cover the book festival and Jeanne would stay home with the dogs.  I checked the rain gauge (no change), checked the lake (peaked and receding), and checked the radar (nothing close).  I decided to clean up, get dressed, load the car, and head out.  I could continue his narrative, but I have probably lost everyone already.

            After all that turmoil and a long drive in the dark, I was actually one of the first authors to be set up in tent booths erected in the plaza on the north side of the state capitol building.  It was my first time at the capitol book festival.  I was pleasantly surprised by the attendance.  I actually sold some books . . . never as many as I would like, but hey, sales are sales.  Folks, young and old, stopped to talk, ask questions, and showed interest.  Then, there are always a few who seem virtually anti-social.  My biggest disappointment was the Wi-Fi set up for the event, which was just not stable enough to upload credit car purchases.  Another mistake I made (in hindsight): I chose not to take a cash pouch for cash payments.  I am still getting the hang of this retail sales process.  Toward mid-afternoon, the governor showed up to say hi to everyone.  I am not high on the man, but I am respectful of the office he holds.  After a long day (with no nap), I drove home, which took a little longer since I stopped about halfway to take a combat nap.

            The flood came at the worst time, but we manage to recover.  Unfortunately, Mother Nature ruined what had been a good plan for a mini-‘vacay.’  C’est la vie.  Life goes on.  I must publicly profess my gratitude for everything Jeanne does for us.  For those who may be curious, the lake was back down to its normal level by Sunday.

            The follow-up news items:

-- Various aviation information sources indicate the investigators for the MetroJet Flight 9268 (KGL9268)[724] incident have begun to reassemble the wreckage, which should enable them, along with the FDR/CVR and radar data to precisely determine the root cause and sequence of the in-flight break-up.

            The Republican presidential nominee seems to have found a kindred spirit in President Rodrigo Roa ‘Rody or Digong’ Duterte of the Philippines  . . . just insult people with whom you disagree or dislike.

            On Friday morning, 9.September, a 5.3 magnitude earthquake was detected in northwest North Korea at a comparatively shallow depth and likely marked the fifth test by the rogue nation of its evolving nuclear weapons development program.  Initial estimates place the yield at 10-20 KT – in the size range of ‘Little Boy,’ the Hiroshima device. 

            Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson stumbled this week when MSNBC reporters asked him about the situation in Aleppo.  He did not know what Aleppo was; “What is Aleppo?”  I was disappointed in that initial response.  Yet, I was truly impressed by his recovery.  He owned it, and regretted his lack of knowledge about the Syrian civil war and refugee crisis.  Gary responded in a calm, direct, forthright manner – a dramatic and refreshing contrast with the insult deflections of the Republican nominee and the word-parsing obfuscation of the Democratic nominee.  Yet, I dare say, most of us know what is going on in Aleppo.  Many of us can actually locate the besieged Syrian city, or at least what is left of the city, on a map.  The stumble was not an encouraging sign.

            Can anyone imagine Winston Churchill singing the praises of Adolf Hitler?  There is zero doubt that Hitler had extraordinary leadership qualities to be able to convince, coax, cajole, dominate and oppress an entire, civilized nation, and convinced virtually the entire professional military leadership to go to war for his purposes.  Churchill was a student of leadership, and an accomplished national and international leader in his own right over many decades, including two (2) world wars.  He recognized Hitler for what he was.  He knew what the German dictator had accomplished, and he also understood long before the negative traits became clear to the world the danger the mercurial German leader represented to Germany, to Europe and to the World.  And yet, Churchill never praised the German dictator for anything, not even conceding the good completed like the Autobahn highway network and making the trains run on schedule.  I wonder what other dictators the Republican nominee admires?

            One additional thought: apparently all you have to do to get on the good side of the Republican nominee is flatter him.  OMG, what lays ahead for us all?

            News from the economic front:

-- The European Central Bank (ECB) announced no changes to its monthly asset-purchase program of €80B (US$90B) will continue until at least the end of March 2017, if necessary.  The ECB continues to fight stubbornly low inflation (growth).

            Comments and contributions from Update no.768:

Comment to the Blog:

“The SpaceX rocket failure seems pretty much par for the course of vastly expanding a field of endeavor quickly. Given the nature of the investigators, we shall never know whether the object you described has any significance. My personal opinion is that an operation of this magnitude ought not to be in private hands. The oligarchy sees only potential return on investment and does not concern itself with cost to others.

“I see Colin Kaepernick as wise to do his protesting in a very public place and situation. Otherwise, he could become one more unarmed black man shot by the police, as so many have been. Alternatively, he could be attacked with dogs as the peaceful pipeline protesters in North Dakota have been or with pepper spray as were protesters at a peaceful rally on a college campus in California a year or two back. Nobody believes Mr. Kaepernick speaks for his football team, but no police officer is unwise enough to take revenge on him in a full stadium with cameras recording every square foot of it. He is merely following the example of Muhammad Ali and others who have used their prominence to further their cause. The shame of it is that the cause has not advanced more since Ali made his stand.”

My response to the Blog:

            Re: SpaceX.  Interesting perspective . . . certainly not devoid of truth, it seems to me.  The NTSB should be doing the investigation . . . as they do with railroads, ships, highways and aircraft; but, as we know, even the NTSB is not removed from political influence, although by law, it is supposed to be beyond politics.

            Re: Kaepernick.  While I agree in part, I cannot agree with the premise anyone can say whatever they want whenever they want and in any circumstance they wish.  Muhammed Ali spoke for himself; he represented no one else except himself.  But hey, apparently, that is just my opinion . . . and that don’t matter a hoot for nothin’.

Another contribution:

“Don't know if you saw this, but they shut down 37 of the 4,200 deep wastewater injection wells in the state. From what I can tell the ability to pinpoint the wells causing the problem is not nearly that precise.”

URL:

http://www.kansas.com/latest-news/article99957507.html – emlnl=Morning_Headlines

My reply:

            Thx mate.  That was what I was referring to, without direct citation, regarding the shutting down of some of the wastewater injection wells.  Pinpointing . . . exactly, they can identify an area, but when there are more than one such wells in the area, precise location becomes nearly impossible.

A different contribution:

“Thanks for another informative piece.  While 768 did not directly raise the question of why a reluctant vote for Trump is wiser than a reluctant vote or any vote for another Obama, I mean Clinton, I have a logical reason that at least by implication 768 invites:

“We may not know exactly what Trump will do, but we do know what Hillary will do (more executive Obama orders, more disrespect of the constitution by our Supreme Court, more illegal aliens on our welfare roles and in our hospitals having free babies, more votes for the federal nanny state, more disrespect from our enemies, more questionable Clintonian shenanigans, more taxation of what is left of our nation's producers, more voters dependent upon government, etc., etc., etc.).  I am willing to take a chance on the coarse but refreshingly independent Republican businessman even though the Repandcrats in charge of the GOP are quite willing to suffer the above results of a Clinton victory so that they can have a few more years in Washington.  Of course, the Clinton worshippers and the timid Trump fearers will follow the main stream media's urgings that we must not have a man like The Donald in the White House when we could have the first female president there, a nice mother with some political experience and only a few scandals per decade behind her.”

My response:

            Well done!  You have made a valiant attempt to draw my vote into the public domain.  First, I have NOT decided who I will vote for in the coming election.  Second, I want to retain an open-mind to the greatest extent I am able for as long as possible.  That said, the closest I’m going to get to a vote declaration prior to the election is my words in the Comment section of Update no.767.  Let it suffice to say that you are far braver than me.  We are conducting a national job interview, and we only have four candidates and a mandatory requirement to pick one for the job.  The current incumbent is barred by the Constitution from remaining in the office he has occupied for nearly eight years.

 . . . the last word on this thread:

"One last thing: I wish I could think that a vote for the Libertarian would not help Hillary, but I am a realist in that regard."

Yet, another contribution:

“Thank you again Cap.  I am sorry for the loss of your friend Lieutenant General Frank Emmanuel Petersen, Jr.

“The quake in your region, is another sign to me that Donald Rumsfeld was a genius in stating (or restating from the works of others):

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know."

And that would be the water injection you refer to below, involved in the fracking process.  I might also refer to Donald Rumsfeld's quote related to the spraying of Naled to contain the Zika Virus, as large kill offs of bees and other insects (and what else?) appears to be happening due to trying to kill the mosquitoes.

“That's it for now, hope to contribute more later...”

My reply:

            Thank you for your kind words.  He was a good man.

            Rummie certainly popularized the “unknown unknowns” in contemporary culture, but he is not the originator of the logic.

            Re: wastewater injection.  The issue, as I understand the geologic processes, is actually the wastewater disposal from the fracking process injected far deeper than the recovery zone.  There are certainly “unknown unknowns” with that process.

            Re: Zika spraying.  Insecticide is like that . . . kills everything and only by dosage regulation they hope to avoid killing humans.

            Contribute more when or if you wish.

 . . . a follow-up comment:

“On Zika spraying, my concern is that we do not know the long term health effects on humans from the insecticide, but also equally important, do try to kill possible Zika carrying mosquitoes, there is now collateral damage to bees and many other species, including effects on plant life, that has an ecological impact that could be more dangerous than Zika, considering statistics, long-term changes, and the ‘unknown unknowns.’  I would even say there is enough we do now know, if bees are killed, that we should seriously consider what we are doing spraying these insecticides.  I believe industrial diseases and our efforts to control nature or add scientific methods for our own benefit, is counterproductive and may be the reason we see things like the cancer disease high measured per capita.”

 . . . my follow-up reply:

            Well said.  A couple of little related factoids . . .  The SS used Zyklon-B in the extermination camps; Zyklon-B began as an insecticide developed by the German chemical company I.G. Farben.  Another one: the U.S. military used Agent Orange herbicide that was widely used in Vietnam; it was considered safe; we now know it was not.  A large number of veterans exposed to the stuff in theater developed fatal diseases.  One last example: broad scale usage of DDT in the 50’s & 60’s likewise produced un-intended consequences for humans exposed to the stuff.  The collateral damage to good, beneficial insects was catastrophic.  The list could go on.  There are good and historic reasons to be suspicious of the Zika insecticide dispersal.  The government undoubtedly believes the risk of Zika infection is greater than the health risk of the insecticide they are using.

 . . . a follow-up, follow-up comment:

“Thank you Cap for bringing this to light, for all that can see it.  Good information.

“If spraying for Zika was being done in my area, I also would be concerned for pets.  I've always been concerned over many of the chemicals we use all around our homes and yards, and tell people do not even use basic cleaning supplies in your home unless well ventilated and one considers wearing rubber gloves (our skin is our biggest organ, absorbing everything in contact). 

“I have not had time but would like to do some R&D on Zika's origins too.”

 . . . my follow-up, follow-up reply:

           We should all be concerned . . . the smaller the creature the less tolerant of neurotoxin exposure they are.  I’ve never been a proponent of general spraying, quite like carpet-bombing, i.e., indiscriminate collateral damage, unless the intention is to eliminate all living things in an area.

This last contribution for this week:

“Good day my friend from a country I know you love - a country that had a very serious earthquake recently.  Yes, we experienced one in Cyprus and Germany too - they can be very unnerving.  Well, here in Venice the temperature was 34 degs C when we arrived yesterday . . . something of a shock after U/K weather.”

My response:

Peter,

            Well, we learn something new every day.  I did not know England, Cyrus or Germany experienced perceptible earthquakes.

            Enjoy your holiday in Italy.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

Update no.768

Update from the Heartland

No.768

29.8.16 – 4.9.16

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

            We endured a rather unusual earthquake out here on the Great Plains of Kansas, circa 07:00 [S] CDT, Saturday, 3.September.2016.  I have felt my fair share of earthquakes growing up in California, and living in Japan and Italy.  This one was the longest duration earthquake I have ever experienced – several minutes by my estimate.  I did not have a seismograph, so I was only relying upon the physical evidence in my study, e.g., computer screen shaking, pictures rattling and such.  About a ¼ of the way through this event, we had a 5.6 spike.  The epicenter was near Pawnee, Oklahoma.  This one appears to have done a lot more serious and expensive damage in Oklahoma than previous earthquakes.  According to the local news, the State of Oklahoma has ordered a cessation of deep wastewater injection, which is believed to be causing these earthquakes where no faults exist.

            With genuine and profound sadness, I report the passing of Lieutenant General Frank Emmanuel Petersen, Jr., USMC (Ret.), 83, on Tuesday, 23.August.2016.  I knew of him and his accomplishments as a Marine long before I knew him as a friend.  I was introduced to Frank in 1991, when I joined the Board of Directors of the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP), along with Admiral Elmo Russell ‘Bud’ Zumwalt, Jr., USN (Ret.).  Frank had retired from active duty, and at the time, he was Vice President of Corporate Aviation for DuPont DeNemours Inc. – one of many common points of intersection.  He was an extraordinary man – friendly, gregarious, generous and compassionate, and a great man to be around.  If you have not read his autobiography – “Into the Tiger’s Jaw”, I strongly and enthusiastically encourage you to read carefully.  We have lost a great American.  May God rest his immortal soul.

            We appear to have experienced a major malfunction . . . in space biz parlance. Space X and the Cape Canaveral launch team were preparing a Falcon 9 vehicle to send a communications satellite into orbit.  The payload was sponsored by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and intended to significantly enhance Internet access for the continent of Africa.  During a preparatory test, the second stage exploded in dramatic fashion – an unusual occurrence in contemporary space launch events.  The video can be seen at:

“SpaceX Rocket And Its Cargo Explode On Launch Pad In Florida [VIDEO]”

by Bill Chappell

National Public Radio

Published: September 1, 2016; 2:08 PM ET

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/01/492230187/spacex-launch-pad-in-florida-is-scene-of-large-explosion-days-before-launch

Conspiracy theorists wasted no time in suggesting the rocket assembly was destroyed by a UFO – Unidentified Flying Object.  When the launch pad video is slowed down, a round object can be seen transiting the field of view in a straight line, right to left, at the time of the explosion.  Each video frame represents 0.01 second.  We could calculate the angular velocity of the object, if we knew the lens characteristics and focal length setting.  Yet, without knowing the range to the object, the angular velocity cannot be transformed into a linear velocity.  Further, nothing untoward is observed emanating from the object.  The noted object is a curiosity item.  However, I shall wait for the official accident report before solidifying my opinion.  Regardless, it was a dramatic failure after so many impressive successes.  The engineers will learn what happened and why, and once that is done, they will sort out a solution.

            A friend and frequent contributor offered the following thread.

“My big problem with TWA#800, was whether the fuel tank fuel/air mixture was prime or not, I never really could buy into believing the ignition source was what the NTSB purported.  In other words, I never could believe in an ignition source for the CFT (Center Fuel Tank).

“Lots of stuff was going on over those waters on that night long ago.  And when you get military pilots reporting they witnessed a streak appearing to be a ground (water) to air launched rocket, then hitting TWA #800, that is noteworthy (as did other wits report that from land).

“The fact Westinghouse (or another contractor[s]) was doing some testing of high energy directed weapons in that vicinity, thus why all the military assets in area, and the MOA, and the TFR's (I believe), makes one ponder.

“Was it Cashill (the author below) that collected rocket motor fuel evidence from some of the seats in the wreckage reconstruction of TWA #800?

“The only other parallel I recall of TWA #800 was that Iranian Air B-747 that had an in-flight explosion over water (if I recall correctly).”

The article reference to above was:

“TWA 800: My Improbable Lunch with the Chairman of the NTSB”

by Jack Cashill

American Thinker

Published: August 29, 2016

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/08/twa_800_my_improbable_lunch_with_the_chairman_of_the_ntsb.html

My reply contribution:

            Yes, it was Cashill who came into possession of recovered seat material with a residue consistent with solid fuel, rocket propellant.  There were inconsistencies in that line of inquiry, not least of which was such material burns to exhaustion once ignited.  There were other attempted explanations such as glue, some having similar composition.  BTW, Cashill got cross-wise with the law when he disclosed that particular seat material sample.

            I have little doubt regarding the fuel-air ratio in the CWT was highly combustible at the time of the incident.  The CWT atmosphere was experimentally recreated in similar conditions.  There is also no doubt that ignition of the CWT residual fuel vapor (FAV) and subsequent explosion caused the forward main spar to rupture, resulting in the separation of the nose section.  The issue has always been the CWT FAV ignition source.  The NTSB’s “guess” has been and remains highly questionable for a host of reasons.  Other potential ignition sources could not be eliminated, e.g., the missing scavenge pump and a high-energy projectile penetration, and thus remain on the table.

            I think you are referring to an Imperial Iranian Air Force B747-131 in-flight separation of the left wing as a result of a lightning strike & subsequent fuel tank explosion near Madrid, Spain [9.May.1976].

            We have passed the 20-year mark since the TWA-800 incident [17.July.1996].  Some of the classified material should be declassified and made available to the public.  We might have to wait for the 50-year mark, after which ALL classified material should be declassified and released.  There is still hope we might one day have a clearer picture of what happened that night.

            Given all of the publicly available information, the most likely scenario remains an extraordinarily lucky SAM impact.  Just one warhead fragment would qualify as a high-energy projectile, as noted above.

  “That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”

Cheers,

Cap

Erratum: Above, I erroneously attributed Cashill as the author of an early theory regarding the TWA 800 incident.  Actually, the author involved with the illegally obtained seat material from TWA 800 was James D. Sanders, who did collaborate with Cashill on a subsequent book with respect to the TWA 800 incident.  I offer my most humble apology for my error with imprecise attribution.

Follow-up comment:

“Thanks for bringing back some facts to my memory.  Yes, CWT not CFT.

“The classified material you mention on TWA #800, I am curious why anything was classified in an investigation that we thought was transparent?

“Do you buy the lightening strike and subsequent explosion/wing-failure on the Imperial Iranian Air Force B747-131 near Madrid?  Just was curious on that one.  Could that have been a similar event to TWA#800, if TWA#800 was not downed by an external method (SAM)?

“So you mention the classification of materials related to TWA#800.  You might note in many of my mentions of the event, I will talk about the high energy directed weapons R&D that was being conducted nearby.  I mention the MOA and many military assets in the area.  I often have wondered if there was weapons (high energy directed) testing that went amiss that affected TWA #800.  Then the CWT explosion and even a SAM by terrorist actors on a boat, are the cover for a huge error.  Just throwing that out there.”

The contributor added a third-party contribution:

“Good questions, no doubt!

“Most things surrounding the Clintons seem to smell like rotten fish.”

The third-party comment:

“This [is] a favorite conspiracy subject of mine.

“There are many fishy things about the investigation:

Why did the NTSB play such a minor role in the investigation?

Why was the FBI the lead-investigating agency?  Same with the Coast Guard?

Why did Clinton sign an Executive Order exempting crewmembers of the USS Grapple and USS Grasp from federal whistleblower protection?

Who believes that there are bare electrical wires running through B747 fuel tanks that could cause a spark?

“Author James Sanders wrote a good investigative book about TWA 800.

“This was nothing more than a huge government cover-up designed to protect Clinton in the 1996 election.”

 . . . to which I replied:

            Good Q’s indeed.

            Re: “Why did the NTSB play such a minor role in the investigation?”  The FBI jumped very quickly on this incident largely due to the initial eyewitness statements of a streak of light ascending into the sky in the vicinity of and followed by the explosive flashes of the in-flight break-up of the aircraft.  I have faulted the FBI for jumping too quickly without sufficient evidence to justify superseding the NTSB, which has a legal mandate to primacy for public transportation safety investigations. 

            Re: “Why was the FBI the lead investigating agency?”  If there is probable cause of a criminal act, then the FBI does become the lead agency.  The law says that until there is probable cause of criminal act, the NTSB is the lead agency.  Given the early evidence, I think the probable cause threshold was met.

            Re: “Why did Clinton sign an Executive Order exempting crewmembers of the USS Grapple and USS Grasp from federal whistleblower protection?”  Short answer: the USG wanted all evidence collected during the recovery phase to be under the protection of the Classified Information Procedures Act (CIPA) [PL 96-456; 94 Stat. 2025; 15.10.1980][548], i.e., the USG wanted strict control of information being disseminated to the public, which is exactly why we have seen essentially none of the notes and evidence collected by the FBI or other federal agencies beyond the NTSB.  That action must be considered highly suspect in a commercial aircraft accident / incident investigation . . . perhaps even unprecedented.  This is also why I noted the classification duration expiration threshold in my earlier missive.

            Re: “Who believes that there are bare electrical wires running through B747 fuel tanks that could cause a spark?”  My answer: only people who know nothing of aircraft design and manufacturing practices, or believe the USG without question.  The NTSB’s ‘errant spark’ hypothesis defies engineering and physics, and the NTSB knows that.

            Re: “James Sanders wrote a good investigative book.”  Yes, he did.  Unfortunately, I do not believe the evidence supports his likely hypothesis.  He did offer a compelling case, nonetheless.

            Re: “a huge government cover-up designed to protect Clinton in the 1996 election.”  Plausible, yes.  Again, unfortunately, I have insufficient evidence to justify this hypothesis.  This is why the classified material thresholds are so important.  Eventually, the information will become public.  If this hypothesis is correct, it will probably come to light after ‘Bill-ary’ have passed.  To be frank, I was disappointed Bush (43) did not declassify all information associated with the TWA 800 investigation.  He did not, so we wait.

            Another contributor raised a query regarding a different commercial aircraft incident.

“I have not seen any new info on MS804.  Have you?  Shouldn’t we have seen something from the CVR/FDR examinations well before now?  The longer this goes on the more suspicious this becomes.”

My response:

            Re: MS804 [753].  There is no obligation or rule about releasing CVR/FDR data before the final report.  Many investigating agencies do release CVR/FDR data because of so much public interest, but there is no requirement.  I suspect the Egyptians feel they were burned by the KGL9268 fiasco [724].  If they have not released the data by now, I doubt they will release it until the final report, which might take a year or more.  I think they are being overly cautious rather than conspiratorial.

Follow-up comment:

“Yes, I suspected the same with the Egyptians.”

My follow-up reply:

            We’ll eventually see the final report for MS804 . . . as well as KGL9268 . . . someday.

            For those who are too distant from American football, the 49ers first string quarterback Colin Rand Kaepernick chose to remain seated on the bench during the playing of the national anthem – a disrespectful passive-aggressive action.  He claims that his ‘protest’ was just a simple exercise of the First Amendment rights to freedom of speech. Kaepernick explained his conduct in a public statement.  “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color. To me, this is bigger than football and it would be selfish on my part to look the other way.  There are bodies in the street and people getting paid leave and getting away with murder.”  Oh my, if the world was only that simple . . .

            The problem I have with Kaepernick’s “statement” boils down to the reality that he was “speaking” in the uniform of a professional football team.  He was not expressing his opinion as a private citizen.  He is seen in the image of the entire San Francisco 49ers football organization.  His action is no different from a police or military officer, or the President of the United States in a similar personal protest . . . as an agent of the larger organization he represents.  He is wrong and comes across as a pampered, over-paid, arrogant hypocrite with some sense of entitlement and special status.

            News from the economic front:

-- The Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 in August.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged from July at 4.9%.  While the hiring growth was lower than expected, the August numbers indicate the economy is still growing.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.767:

“I still don’t envy the responsibility of the Grand Republic - your choice is reedy with squeaky CVs from the combatants.  What can be done?  I assume it’s too late to encourage fresh alternative and prospective candidates.  Why has this Stein suddenly materialized?

“Anyway my friend keep working - I’m looking forward to reading your books.”

My reply:

            Indeed!  The best we can do is suck it up and pray sufficient numbers of citizens do the correct thing on Election Day in November.  Yes, it is too late for any new candidates, I do believe.  The filing deadlines for various states occur in late spring and summer, e.g., the Kansas filing deadline was 1.August.  So, for this year’s presidential election, the candidates are set.  We have what we have.

            Re: Jill Stein.  Well, actually, she has been prominent in the Green Party for quite some time.  She was the Green Party presumptive nominee for several months, although the Green Party did not have primaries like the Democratic and Republican Parties.  In Trump-parlance, the system is rigged to favor the Democratic and Republican Parties, and even the Commission on Presidential Debates is stocked with political operatives from the two major parties.  This is the time for the Libertarian and Green Parties to break through the barriers of the two-party system, reinforced by those same parties in Congress and by the law.

Comment to the Blog:

“What we face now with the limitations on Presidential debates is a unique potential fiasco.  One or both of the mainstream candidates may be eliminated by law enforcement, overwhelming scandal, or health issues. (Trump is lying about his health; Clinton is silent.) In that event, many voters will vote for either the Green or the Libertarian candidate without ever knowing how they perform under pressure or even much about their positions.

“In regard to how we choose who to include, I like your criterion but I would settle for 40 states with continuing effort until a month prior to the election. In most cases, that would include enough voters to carry an election, particularly if we eventually go to a multi-party system. My only cautionary note is that we need to consider ballot access in the various states.”

My response to the Blog:

            Well, for the sake of this Grand Republic, I hope you are wrong.  Regardless, we need all four parties represented in the debates, although we are not likely to reach a reasonable placement.

            Re: criteria.  The requirements common to all states is Article 2, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution:

1.  Natural born citizen

2.  At least 35 years of age

3.  Minimum of 14 years of residency

States usually have additional requirements beyond the Constitution to qualify to be placed on the ballot in a particular state.  In Kansas, an independent candidate must file a petition of qualification with the signatures of 5,000 qualified voters by the filing deadline of 1.August.  Even a write-in candidate must file an affidavit of qualification for any of the votes for him to be counted.  Well, 40 or 50, I’m not hard over for either one.  Ballot access remains the domain of the states.  Gaining ballot access in 40 or 50 states would still take money and organization well in advance to meet the requirements before the deadline in each state.  I think we have what we have for this quadrennial presidential election.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)