Update no.640

Update from the Heartland

No.640

17.3.14 – 23.3.14

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

Erratum:

In last week’s Update, I reported the Crimean vote in favor of secession from the Ukraine was 89.5%, which was a premature result.  Monday morning, the Crimean Referendum Commission Chairman Mikhail Malyshev reported the final vote count excluding Sevastopol was 96.77% in favor of rejoining Russia, and in Sevastopol, the tally was 95.6% for rejoining Russia.

The follow-up news items:

-- We had Uncle Joe 70 years ago.  Now, we have Uncle Vlad.  Putin wasted no time in having the upper chamber of the Russian Parliament endorse the Crimean vote and absorb Crimea [637-9].  Russian armed forces moved quickly to take control of Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea.  Gunfire and explosions have been reported.  NATO responses have been subdued if not tepid.  It seems the EU and U.S. are attempting to sanction the perpetrators rather than punish the Russian people broadly, which is probably a wise choice, although Putin’s propagandists will work relentlessly to froth up Russian fervor for renewed confrontation with the West, turning the clock back 70 years to Stalin’s heyday.  This is a long way from being over, I suspect.

-- The search for Flight MH370 [638-9] continues with the primary focus on an area of the Indian Ocean 1,400 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, for reasons that have not been publicly made available, as yet.  Some retired general on Fox News claimed the aircraft landed somewhere in the tribal area of Pakistan.  In mathematical terms, we still have too many variables with not enough equations.  Further, the Malaysian government has attracted a fair amount of criticism for their rather herky-jerky handling of the investigation.  Unfortunately for Malaysia, they were ill-equipped to handle such a rare event of this magnitude.

At 04:00 [B], Monday, 17.March.2014 {22:00 [R] EST, 16.March}, U.S. Navy SEALs boarded and took control of the commercial tanker MV Morning Glory, a stateless vessel carrying Libyan oil and seized earlier this month by three armed Libyans. The boarding took place in international waters off the southeast coast of Cyprus, and there were no injuries in the operation. The U.S. took action at the request of both the Libyan and Cypriot governments

Michigan has joined a growing number of other states to have the federal judiciary strike down state laws regarding marriage rights.  We are only halfway to equal protection under the law for all citizens regardless of the social factors.

President Obama awarded 24 Medals of Honor on Tuesday.  Only 3 of the 24 were still alive to receive their awards:

-- Staff Sergeant Melvin Morris of Cocoa, Florida, for courageous actions during combat operations in the vicinity of Chi Lang, South Vietnam, on 17.September.1969.

-- Specialist 4 Santiago J. Erevia of San Antonio, Texas, cited for courage during a search and clear mission near Tam Ky, South Vietnam, on 21.May.1969.

-- Sergeant First Class Jose Rodela of San Antonio, Texas, cited for courage during combat operations in Phuoc Long province, South Vietnam, on 1.September.1969.

The posthumous recipients were:

-- Specialist 4 Leonard L. Alvarado of Bakersfield, California, died during combat operations in Phuoc Long province, South Vietnam, on 12.August.1969.

-- Corporal Joe R. Baldonado, born in Colorado, killed during combat operations in Kangdong, North Korea, on 25.November.1950.

-- Private Pedro Cano of La Morita, Mexico, for courageous actions during combat operations in Schevenhutte, Germany, on 3.December.1944.

-- Staff Sergeant Felix M. Conde-Falcon of Juncos, Puerto Rico, killed during combat operations in Ap Tan Hoa, South Vietnam, on 4.April.1969.

-- Specialist 4 Ardie R. Copas of Fort Pierce, Florida, killed during combat operations near Ph Romeas Hek, Cambodia, on 12.May.1970.

-- Specialist. 4 Jesus S. Duran of San Bernardino, California, for courageous actions during combat operations in South Vietnam on 10.April.1969.

-- Corporal Victor H. Espinoza of El Paso, Texas, for courageous actions during combat operations in Chorwon, North Korea, on 1.August.1952.

-- Private Joe Gandara of Santa Monica, California, for courageous actions during combat operations in Amfreville, France, on 9.June.1944.

-- Sergeant Candelario Garcia of Corsicana, Texas, for courageous actions during combat operations in Lai Khe, South Vietnam, on 8.December.1968.

-- Sergeant Eduardo C. Gomez, of Los Angeles, for courageous actions during combat operations in Tabu-dong, South Korea, on 3.September.1950.

-- Private First Class Leonard M. Kravitz, born in New York City, killed during combat operations in Yangpyong, South Korea, on 6/7.March.1951.

-- Private First Class Salvador J. Lara of Riverside, California, for courageous actions during combat operations in Aprilia, Italy, 27/28.May.1944.

-- Sergeant William F. Leonard of Lockport, New Jersey, for courageous actions during combat operations near St. Die, France, on 7.November.1944.

-- Staff Sergeant Manuel V. Mendoza of Miami, Arizona, for courageous actions during combat operations on Mount Battaglia, Italy, on 4.October.1944.

-- Master Sergeant Juan E. Negron of Bayamon, Puerto Rico, for courageous actions during combat operations in Kalma-Eri, North Korea, on 28.April.1951.

-- Sergeant Alfred B. Nietzel of New York City, for courageous actions during combat operations in Heistern, Germany, on 18.November.1944.

-- Master Sergeant Mike C. Pena of Newgulf, Texas, killed in action during combat operations in Waegwan, South Korea, on 4.September.1950.

-- Private Demensio Rivera of Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico, for courageous actions during combat operations in Changyong-ni, South Korea, on 23.May.1951.

-- First Lieutenant Donald K. Schwab of Hooper, Nebraska, for courageous actions during combat operations near Lure, France, on 17.September.1944.

-- Private Miguel A. Vera born in Puerto Rico, killed during combat operations in Chorwon, North Korea, on 21.September.1952.

-- Sergeant Jack Weinstein of Saint Francis, Kansas, for courageous actions during combat operations in Kumsong, South Korea, on 19.October.1951.

I laud the government’s initiative to correct these mistakes and humbly thank these citizens and supporters for their extraordinary service to this Grand Republic and the cause of freedom.  May God rest their immortal souls.

            I am reticent to note my struggle with establishing the basis for the review of combat awards by the Army, reported by the Press.  Several Press articles cited the source law as the 2002 National Defense Authorization Act, which is not a precise notation.  The process of localization took an inordinate amount of time as a consequence.  For those who may be interested or curious and beyond my whining about time spent, I eventually found the applicable law – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2002  [PL 107–107; S. 1438; 115 Stat. 1012; 28.December.2001], and specifically Title V – Military Personnel Policy, Subtitle F – Decorations, Awards, and Posthumous Commissions, § 552 – Review regarding award of Medal of Honor to certain Jewish American and Hispanic American war veterans [115 Stat. 1115].  The law directed the secretaries of each of the military departments to review past awards for discrimination based on heritage.  This ceremony presumably completes the Department of the Army review directed by § 552 of PL 107-107, and the other departments have yet to complete their reviews.

Turkey reported the shoot down of a Syrian warplane on Sunday – a distinct escalation of tensions along the 565-mile border.  The conditions and circumstances of the encounter have not yet been disclosed.  This could easily explode into a far hotter war in the region.

News from the economic front:

-- The Federal Reserve indicated it would not consider raising interest rates from near zero until the jobless rate fell to 6.5%, provided inflation looks likely to remain below 2.5%.   The Fed dropped the reference to the 6.5% jobless rate, which officials have come to see as too limited an indicator of the labor market's health.  They are putting less weight on the unemployment rate as a signpost for when rate increases will start, while affirming its plan to keep borrowing costs low, far into the future.

-- The Federal Reserve announced their annual test of big banks’ financial health showed that 29 of the 30 largest institutions are strong enough to withstand a severe economic downturn, potentially clearing the way for banks to reward investors with dividends and stock buybacks.  Only one bank, Zions Bancorp, fell below required minimum capital levels.

Comments and contributions from Update no.639:

“Thanks Cap.  Good stuff with a little more detail than I get from most other 'open' sources as usual.

“Not a critique; just a comment.  Once we accept the fact that we all have limits on what we know, or think we know, and what we can know, then it's only a matter of recognizing the highest floor our elevator stops on.  We can move up a couple of floors through diligent, honest research - as you do, but there's still a limit.  You have said as much several times.

“After that, it's really a matter of who you trust - or trust least.  It's a balancing act.  The top of my un-trust list is obviously the media, followed closely by this president, his staff and his 'justice' department.  Nothing destroys trust like a known lie told on an inaccessible level but revealed at one of the floors your elevator does stops on.  I do not necessarily trust the intelligence community, but I trust Feinstein less and her staff's motives even less than that.

“As for the 'legal' ways the Intel community could have proceeded; only if the staffers were part of the white, male, 'privileged' class.  This 'justice' department has a dismal record of doing anything not directly connected with the furthering of a political agenda.  As Billy Jack would say: 'When lawmen break the law, there is no law.'

“Just my opinion.”

My reply:

            I try to be thorough and understand.  I rarely get it correct, but I still try.

            Having spent some time on the dark side decades ago, I have some appreciation for the contrast between intelligence data and public information.  While I would love to see the “real” data in this case and others, I acknowledge I cannot see it as a private citizen.  So, we absorb as much as we can, connect the dots, and see what image appears.

            In the intelligence world, corroboration and source trustworthiness are key elements of the analysis process.  That is one reason multiple, independent sources are so bloody important.

            I’m not sure what “known lie” you are referring to?

            Re: Feinstein.  I’m not sure what has led you to distrust Dianne Feinstein . . . other than she is a Democrat.  I am not to that level of distrust; skeptical or inquisitive, yes, but distrustful, not yet.

            Congressional staffers, or any citizen for that matter, have NO right whatsoever to violate the responsibility to protect classified material.  I suspect citizens in both branches of government have gotten so use to “stealing” stuff from the other that now anything is fair game . . . thus your Billy Jack quotation.  So, as I said earlier, I laud the referral to the Judiciary . . . that is what the 3^rd branch is there for . . . to adjudicate spats between the other two branches.  So, let them lay out their respective arguments and let’s see what a judge has to say.  I suspect they both have a smattering of wrong-ness here, but the CIA went too far.

Comment to the Blog:

“In all the changes at Textron, I hope you fare well one way or another.

“The saga of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 370 continues. I agree with friends who say that the media and everyone else is just guessing now. The possibilities, based on the evidence and conjecture in TV and the Internet, are essentially endless.

“The Ukraine/Crimea event continues. I predict that the European nations will put their best efforts into preventing disruption of the Russian oil pipelines. Anything beyond that is anybody's guess.

“So now you and Diane Feinstein have decided the spy business has gone too far. What made either of you blind to the self-serving nature of spy organizations until now baffles me. It was ever thus.”

My response to the Blog:

            Re: Textron. Thank you. Time shall tell the tale.

            Re: MH370. There certainly is a plethora of hypothesizing going on, regarding the fate of the flight. Yet, there are unchallenged facts.

1. The flight took off from Kuala Lumpur at 00:41 [G].

2. The flight did not arrive at its scheduled and planned destination of Beijing, PRC.

3. Someone (qualified or very well trained) in the cockpit was in control of the aircraft.

4. The aircraft was not equipped with an in-flight refueling system.

Less assured:

5. The aircraft transponder stopped transmitting at 01:19 [G].

6. Geostationary Inmarsat satellite over Indian Ocean recorded a handshake ping from the a/c at 08:11 [G].

7. Estimated duration of loaded fuel supply – 08:40 [G].

There are a host of other public domain details that cannot be considered as facts since evidence has not been presented or corroborated. Given just the facts above, mechanical failure and “act of God” can be eliminated. I think it safe to say, whatever happened to MH370, it is not good.

            Re: Ukraine/Crimea. The EU / U.S. response so far has been rather tepid and meaningless.

            Re: spy business. I could not prove the Spitzer transgression, while I think the likelihood is strong. The Senate transgression was not passive listening and abusive use; it was a covert, intrusive, intentional, offensive act. So, whatever reason, yes, I am at that point – the USG is not worthy of such tools. Further, some supervisor or group of someones at CIA made the decision to break into the Senate Intell Cmte computers. Anyway, I am where I am.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)