Update no.641

Update from the Heartland

No.641

24.3.14 – 30.3.14

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

The follow-up news items:

-- The search for Flight MH370 [638-40] appears to be narrowing.  Until we have the download from the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), we will probably have no definitive indication of cause.  The authorities have stated there are no markers for terrorism . . . unspoken we might add . . . from outside the cockpit.  I might even rationalize a hypoxia event similar to the Payne Stewart accident [25.10.1999] or the Helios Airlines Flight ZU522 accident [14.8.2005], except for the MH370 aircraft course changes picked up by military RADAR in vicinity of the Malacca Straights.  I hope they find otherwise, but this looks like more and more to be a pilot-induced suicide or terrorism event. 

-- The G-7 (-1) disinvited Russia from the group of leading economies as a consequence of the Crimea situation [637-40].  President Obama flew to Brussels to reinforce NATO’s position in support of the Ukraine.  Then surprisingly, President Putin called President Obama while the latter was on the road so to speak, to discuss the Crimea and Ukraine situation – content undisclosed.  Perhaps Putin is attempting to defuse the tensions over the Ukraine, but the serious troop build up on the eastern Ukraine-Russia border suggest otherwise.  We can only hope this does not come to blows.

News from the economic front:

-- In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s banking stress test [640], the central bankers disapproved the capital plans of five large banks and approved 25 as part of its annual “stress tests” measuring a firm's ability to survive a severe economic downturn.  The five rejected institutions – Citigroup, Zions Bancorp, and the U.S. units of HSBC Holdings PLC, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Banco Santander – now must submit revised capital plans.  The Fed finding is a significant setback for Citigroup Chief Executive Michael Corbat, who sought to bolster the bank's reputation following a 2008 government rescue, and to reward investors with dividends and stock buybacks,

-- Bank of America agreed to a US$9.5B settlement with the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency over US$57.5B of mortgage-backed securities sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by Bank of America, Countrywide, and Merrill Lynch entities.  Bank of America will make a cash payment of US$6.3B to the two agencies and repurchase roughly US$3.2B of those securities at fair market value.

-- The Commerce Department revised the nation's 4Q2013 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upward to a 2.6% annual rate from the agency's previous calculation of 2.4% growth.   Consumer spending picked up late last year more than previously estimated, putting the economy on a stronger footing ahead of the recent disruptions caused by harsh weather.

L’Affaire Madoff [365]:

-- Jurors found five former employees of Bernie Madoff – two trading managers, two computer programmers and the firm's director of operations – guilty of conspiracy to defraud investors and securities fraud. The verdict shows Madoff got a wide range of support keeping afloat a scam that ran for decades and cost investors billions of dollars.

Comments and contributions from Update no.640:

“Re: the situation in the Crimea.   It may not be understood by many here, but Crimea was a part of Russia for about two centuries, after the Czar captured it.  It was ‘given’ to Ukraine, actually the Ukrainian SSR, in 1954 by Soviet head Nikita Khrushchev.  The real reason for this is unclear, as Khrushchev had recently taken over after Stalin’s death, and the party apparatchiks and other leaders were uncomfortable in challenging him.  He was from southern Russia, but spent most of his early Communist Party days in Ukraine and was there during part of the war.  Sympathy for Ukraine might be part of it- another version holds that he was drunk. No kidding.  At any rate, the reason for it isn’t clear in Soviet history.  It really meant nothing at the time, as it was within the Soviet Union.

“But with the large ethnic Russian population in Crimea, this was not an unforeseen move.  When I was posted in Moscow in the mid-90’s, my sons’ school trip to Crimea was cancelled due to a squabble over the division of the former Soviet Navy assets there.

“From the Russian view, particularly Putin’s, the West has gone back on a number of promises that were made to Gorbachev at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union- not to expand NATO into Soviet territory.  Bush I made some promises to Gorby that the Russians now are thinking have been broken.  This is part of their mind-set- we don’t have to agree with it but they- at least understand some of them feel threatened.   Also, the Russian Navy needs Crimea for a warm-water port.  The Russian Navy was begun by Peter the Great in the Sea of Azov, next to Crimea, and it has great nostalgia among Russian Naval people..a lot of retired Soviet/Russian naval officers live there.

“What Putin may have done, however, is ensure another Chechnya.  About 15% of the population is Crimean Tatar- the ethnic group that originally habited the area.  Most of them were expelled to Central Asia by Stalin after the war- hundreds of thousands died.  Gradually, a significant segment of the Tatar population returned, to where they now make up about 15% - significant, in that they are mostly Muslim.  They feel threatened, and there already have been actions against them.  This may eventually lead to problems and then violence.  Stay tuned.”

My reply:

Jan,

            Great insight.  Thank you, my friend.

Comment to the Blog:

“Russia seems to be doing its ‘loose cannon’ thing again. That goes back well before Stalin. Land-grabbing Russian leaders arguably go back to Ivan the Terrible in an almost unbroken line. Also worth noting, though, least one Ukrainian revolt against the West (in that case Poland-Lithuania) got under way in 1648. (Russian history per Wikipedia) Also note the Crimean War. While the referendum in Crimea is probably fishy, the issues there go deeper than the usual Russian desire to dominate. There are places in this world that will not be tamed by the USA's power or alleged benevolence, and this is one. In the meantime, we need to rebuild the nation we have. The European Union can take care of itself if we allow that. We also need to note that Russia has one of the larger economies in the world (6th or 8th depending on what one measures, per Wikipedia also). Regardless of Putin's personal crudeness, we need to consider the implications of that.

“Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 continues to fascinate the world. The families of those aboard need our sympathy, although I cannot imagine a material way to help them. This waiting seems to me much worse than mourning, and the spotlight makes it even worse.

“Historic change continues to favor marriage equality. While I have yet to study the specifics, I have seen a headline here in Ohio that the Michigan decision “endangers” Ohio's anti-gay-marriage statute. Good.

“I am glad the government has finally recognized 24 Latino and Jewish men who earned the Medal of Honor. That brings up the question of African-American, Native American, and other minority soldiers who might have been overlooked by the system as it was.

“You are so reticent to note your own struggle with the review process for combat awards that you did not mention your part in that. Feel free to give us more.

“I had forgotten or not realized that you had been involved with the spy community. You yourself called it the ‘dark side,’ appropriate either as an allusion to its secrecy or to its checkered history. Please understand that my attitudes about that field of endeavor are based on its history and not on anything personal. My assumption about you is that you served as honorably and capably as possible in whatever were the circumstances. The lesson of history is that a substantial number of spies and their superiors fail in one or both of those qualities. Given the importance of their responsibilities, that is a national issue everywhere, not just here.

“My reason for mistrusting Diane Feinstein may differ from your other correspondent's. Mine is her hypocrisy in supporting any level of surveillance of U.S. citizens right up until she realized she is subject to that same surveillance. That hypocrisy offends me and leads me to doubt her.

“We have had enough of winter here in Ohio, but it has not had enough of us. The projected high temperature for Columbus today is twenty degrees Fahrenheit below the average. We expect the same for tomorrow, with a little snow overnight. I want easier weather for my bicycle riding. I will ride all the same, though. Meanwhile, the world as a whole has had another warm winter season. Australia's corresponding summer re-wrote the record book for heat, and Alaska nearly failed to have snow for the Iditarod dog sled race. We live in interesting times. That will not change in my lifetime. I am 56 years old. Even if every national government took the strongest measures to stabilize the climate within a few years (not likely), the changes would continue for twenty five years before stasis or reversal began. By the time we reached 1990 levels, I would be extremely old.”

My response to the Blog:

            Re: Ukraine.  We seem to be on a Russian history journey these days.  Probably fishy . . . I’d say definitely fishy.  When do we feel compelled to intervene in the assault by a schoolyard bully?

            Re: MH370.  Yes, the uncertainty of such events, especially at this phase of the investigation, leaves the families in an obscene netherworld.  I think the experts will sort this out in time, but it may take a long time.

            Re: marriage equality.  Marriage is simply the cause de jure.  The issue at stake is much larger than marriage.  It is equal protection under the law, as guaranteed by the Constitution, for all citizens regardless of the social factors.  The journey continues . . . one small step at a time.  Kansas said the same thing with the judges’ decisions in Utah and Oklahoma.

            Re: my struggle.  What would you like to know?  How I finally figured it out?

            Re: IC.  There are bad men in all walks of life including the IC.  The public may know a few of the bad things perpetrated by bad men, but they do not know the thousands upon thousands of good things performed by good men, which is why I urge balance in leveling our criticism at the entire IC.

            Re: Feinstein.  As noted above, I give her more credit for what I surmise she knows or is aware of in her position.  The perception of hypocrisy may well be the price of secrecy in all this.

            Re: climate.  The Earth is a living organism.  It cycles; it ebbs and flows.  The Earth experienced a massive ice age of many millennia just a mere 13,000 years ago.  1816 is called the year without summer.  The Earth will continue to cycle.  Nonetheless, we must decrease our dependence on fossil fuels and other pollutants of the Earth’s air, water and land.  The only debate hangs upon what is reasonable and responsible.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“With respect to Ukraine, Russia is indeed a bully. It was ever thus, as I have pointed out. In terms of the EU, not so much. Russia's perennial expansionism has perpetually failed as it reached Western Europe. The last successful conquerors as far west as western Germany who came from that part of the world were the Mongols, and they could not or would not hold the territory. Indeed, the recent Russians, when they were called the USSR, lost much of Eastern Europe due to their own internal issues.

“I agree that marriage equality is the immediate cause of a larger change. However, I see the change as far broader than the US and deeper than the Constitution. Social progress has become the most obvious indicator for the US having fallen behind the rest of the developed world. Whether it is the most important is probably a matter of perspective, but the underlying attitudes tie it to such economic issues as health care and crime.

“Cap, you mentioned struggling with the combat medal review process but then gave no further information about your part in the process. That kind of ‘teaser’ demands a follow-up or leaves your audience unsatisfied. Good writing cries for a middle and ending to go with the beginning of that story.

“I have not said the spy community was unalloyed evil or anything close to that. I have come to believe something my mother used to repeat, ‘There's good and bad in every one.’ Nobody has ever shown me a reason to doubt that many capable and morally sound people toil in the ‘intelligence’ field. What I have said, and what history supports, is that the secrecy inherent in spying fosters the incompetent and the corrupt by making it easy and functionally important to cover their tracks. As stated, the importance of their work makes that an issue worldwide.

“The examples of climate variability you give are essentially red herrings. This planet has indeed been both far colder and far hotter than it is today. I will add 1888 to the list of colder-than-normal events because others cite it as an example. That was caused by the eruption of Krakatoa, and has no more bearing than the others. The important fact here is the rate of change. If the changes we have experienced in the past twenty years had occurred over a millennium, which would be more typical, humans and other creatures would have adapted and barely noticed. Such a change even over a couple of centuries would be met with few serious losses. On the other hand, Krakatoa caused a dramatic changed, but that only lasted a few years. The current situation bears little resemblance to those historical events. People respond poorly to events as relatively slow as climate change, and we will pay a high price for that. That facts that the Chinese and others are choking themselves with air pollution and that the U.S. and others are ruining our own water supplies will in time pale before the changes in the climate of the entire Earth.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            Re: Ukraine.  Bullies always have rationale for doing what they do; it is no different with Uncle Vlad.  To me, Russian historic schizophrenia seems to be the motivator; they lack confidence in their military to the extent they need land as a buffer for mobilization or deployment time.  The Ukraine does not belong to Russia – never has, never will, despite Russian occupation off & on over the years.  They use the “NATO threat” as their excuse, but I really think it is the simple megalomania of a bully.

            Re: marriage.  Agreed.  Spot on!

            Re: My struggle.  I just figured most folks don’t care about such things, thus my reticence.  However, I am happy to recount my journey.  Most Press references for that effort used the ambiguous “Congress directed” (if anything), which is virtually of no use.  The best I could get from any Press article on the process and the event was as noted “2002 National Defense Authorization Act.” “2002” could be the fiscal year, the calendar year, or the congressional designation.  “National Defense Authorization Act” could be a variety of different titles.  The only reference I had did not have quote marks or any other sign of precision.  As noted in last week’s Update, the precise title as enacted was “National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2002” and I add the bracket notation [PL 107–107; S. 1438; 115 Stat. 1012; 28.December.2001] – the public law number, legislative designation, statue notation, and please note the date the President signed the bill into law . . . not 2002.  Contemporary statute files do not have an index or table of contents as most of the early versions do, so searching has to be more precise.  So, there you have it.  Do you want anymore detail?

            Re: “the secrecy inherent in spying fosters the incompetent and the corrupt . . .”  I simply cannot agree.  Secrecy is not the root cause.  The majority of folks are good, diligent, patriotic citizens who do great things for this Grand Republic under that secrecy.  It is a few individuals (comparatively) who exceed their authority largely out of overzealousness or political partisanship, in my opinion.  Also, they inherently take risks; sometimes those risks work, sometimes not.

            Re: climate.  Many argue the eruption of Volcano Toba 75,000 years ago caused the Ice Age that lasted for 60,000 years.  There are many forces that affect our climate.  In our lifetimes, scientists thought we faced another ice age just 50 years ago.  Other scientists predicted an apocalyptic population “bomb” would explode 30 years ago.  Like you, I am concerned about the effects of climate change on our way of life, but I truly struggle with the inflation of man’s effect on that climate change.  I want social and economic reforms to reduce or eliminate our reliance on fossil fuels, but too radical of a change could easily be far more injurious.  The doomsday’ists do not impress me.  Someday one will be correct, but until then all have been wrong.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)