05 September 2016

Update no.768

Update from the Heartland
No.768
29.8.16 – 4.9.16
To all,

            We endured a rather unusual earthquake out here on the Great Plains of Kansas, circa 07:00 [S] CDT, Saturday, 3.September.2016.  I have felt my fair share of earthquakes growing up in California, and living in Japan and Italy.  This one was the longest duration earthquake I have ever experienced – several minutes by my estimate.  I did not have a seismograph, so I was only relying upon the physical evidence in my study, e.g., computer screen shaking, pictures rattling and such.  About a ¼ of the way through this event, we had a 5.6 spike.  The epicenter was near Pawnee, Oklahoma.  This one appears to have done a lot more serious and expensive damage in Oklahoma than previous earthquakes.  According to the local news, the State of Oklahoma has ordered a cessation of deep wastewater injection, which is believed to be causing these earthquakes where no faults exist.

            With genuine and profound sadness, I report the passing of Lieutenant General Frank Emmanuel Petersen, Jr., USMC (Ret.), 83, on Tuesday, 23.August.2016.  I knew of him and his accomplishments as a Marine long before I knew him as a friend.  I was introduced to Frank in 1991, when I joined the Board of Directors of the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP), along with Admiral Elmo Russell ‘Bud’ Zumwalt, Jr., USN (Ret.).  Frank had retired from active duty, and at the time, he was Vice President of Corporate Aviation for DuPont DeNemours Inc. – one of many common points of intersection.  He was an extraordinary man – friendly, gregarious, generous and compassionate, and a great man to be around.  If you have not read his autobiography – “Into the Tiger’s Jaw”, I strongly and enthusiastically encourage you to read carefully.  We have lost a great American.  May God rest his immortal soul.

            We appear to have experienced a major malfunction . . . in space biz parlance. Space X and the Cape Canaveral launch team were preparing a Falcon 9 vehicle to send a communications satellite into orbit.  The payload was sponsored by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and intended to significantly enhance Internet access for the continent of Africa.  During a preparatory test, the second stage exploded in dramatic fashion – an unusual occurrence in contemporary space launch events.  The video can be seen at:
“SpaceX Rocket And Its Cargo Explode On Launch Pad In Florida [VIDEO]”
by Bill Chappell
National Public Radio
Published: September 1, 2016; 2:08 PM ET
Conspiracy theorists wasted no time in suggesting the rocket assembly was destroyed by a UFO – Unidentified Flying Object.  When the launch pad video is slowed down, a round object can be seen transiting the field of view in a straight line, right to left, at the time of the explosion.  Each video frame represents 0.01 second.  We could calculate the angular velocity of the object, if we knew the lens characteristics and focal length setting.  Yet, without knowing the range to the object, the angular velocity cannot be transformed into a linear velocity.  Further, nothing untoward is observed emanating from the object.  The noted object is a curiosity item.  However, I shall wait for the official accident report before solidifying my opinion.  Regardless, it was a dramatic failure after so many impressive successes.  The engineers will learn what happened and why, and once that is done, they will sort out a solution.

            A friend and frequent contributor offered the following thread.
“My big problem with TWA#800, was whether the fuel tank fuel/air mixture was prime or not, I never really could buy into believing the ignition source was what the NTSB purported.  In other words, I never could believe in an ignition source for the CFT (Center Fuel Tank).
“Lots of stuff was going on over those waters on that night long ago.  And when you get military pilots reporting they witnessed a streak appearing to be a ground (water) to air launched rocket, then hitting TWA #800, that is noteworthy (as did other wits report that from land).
“The fact Westinghouse (or another contractor[s]) was doing some testing of high energy directed weapons in that vicinity, thus why all the military assets in area, and the MOA, and the TFR's (I believe), makes one ponder.
“Was it Cashill (the author below) that collected rocket motor fuel evidence from some of the seats in the wreckage reconstruction of TWA #800?
“The only other parallel I recall of TWA #800 was that Iranian Air B-747 that had an in-flight explosion over water (if I recall correctly).”
The article reference to above was:
“TWA 800: My Improbable Lunch with the Chairman of the NTSB”
by Jack Cashill
American Thinker
Published: August 29, 2016
My reply contribution:
            Yes, it was Cashill who came into possession of recovered seat material with a residue consistent with solid fuel, rocket propellant.  There were inconsistencies in that line of inquiry, not least of which was such material burns to exhaustion once ignited.  There were other attempted explanations such as glue, some having similar composition.  BTW, Cashill got cross-wise with the law when he disclosed that particular seat material sample.
            I have little doubt regarding the fuel-air ratio in the CWT was highly combustible at the time of the incident.  The CWT atmosphere was experimentally recreated in similar conditions.  There is also no doubt that ignition of the CWT residual fuel vapor (FAV) and subsequent explosion caused the forward main spar to rupture, resulting in the separation of the nose section.  The issue has always been the CWT FAV ignition source.  The NTSB’s “guess” has been and remains highly questionable for a host of reasons.  Other potential ignition sources could not be eliminated, e.g., the missing scavenge pump and a high-energy projectile penetration, and thus remain on the table.
            I think you are referring to an Imperial Iranian Air Force B747-131 in-flight separation of the left wing as a result of a lightning strike & subsequent fuel tank explosion near Madrid, Spain [9.May.1976].
            We have passed the 20-year mark since the TWA-800 incident [17.July.1996].  Some of the classified material should be declassified and made available to the public.  We might have to wait for the 50-year mark, after which ALL classified material should be declassified and released.  There is still hope we might one day have a clearer picture of what happened that night.
            Given all of the publicly available information, the most likely scenario remains an extraordinarily lucky SAM impact.  Just one warhead fragment would qualify as a high-energy projectile, as noted above.
  “That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”
Cheers,
Cap
Erratum: Above, I erroneously attributed Cashill as the author of an early theory regarding the TWA 800 incident.  Actually, the author involved with the illegally obtained seat material from TWA 800 was James D. Sanders, who did collaborate with Cashill on a subsequent book with respect to the TWA 800 incident.  I offer my most humble apology for my error with imprecise attribution.
Follow-up comment:
“Thanks for bringing back some facts to my memory.  Yes, CWT not CFT.
“The classified material you mention on TWA #800, I am curious why anything was classified in an investigation that we thought was transparent?
“Do you buy the lightening strike and subsequent explosion/wing-failure on the Imperial Iranian Air Force B747-131 near Madrid?  Just was curious on that one.  Could that have been a similar event to TWA#800, if TWA#800 was not downed by an external method (SAM)?
“So you mention the classification of materials related to TWA#800.  You might note in many of my mentions of the event, I will talk about the high energy directed weapons R&D that was being conducted nearby.  I mention the MOA and many military assets in the area.  I often have wondered if there was weapons (high energy directed) testing that went amiss that affected TWA #800.  Then the CWT explosion and even a SAM by terrorist actors on a boat, are the cover for a huge error.  Just throwing that out there.”
The contributor added a third-party contribution:
“Good questions, no doubt!
“Most things surrounding the Clintons seem to smell like rotten fish.”
The third-party comment:
“This [is] a favorite conspiracy subject of mine.
“There are many fishy things about the investigation:
Why did the NTSB play such a minor role in the investigation?
Why was the FBI the lead-investigating agency?  Same with the Coast Guard?
Why did Clinton sign an Executive Order exempting crewmembers of the USS Grapple and USS Grasp from federal whistleblower protection?
Who believes that there are bare electrical wires running through B747 fuel tanks that could cause a spark?
“Author James Sanders wrote a good investigative book about TWA 800.
“This was nothing more than a huge government cover-up designed to protect Clinton in the 1996 election.”
 . . . to which I replied:
            Good Q’s indeed.
            Re: “Why did the NTSB play such a minor role in the investigation?”  The FBI jumped very quickly on this incident largely due to the initial eyewitness statements of a streak of light ascending into the sky in the vicinity of and followed by the explosive flashes of the in-flight break-up of the aircraft.  I have faulted the FBI for jumping too quickly without sufficient evidence to justify superseding the NTSB, which has a legal mandate to primacy for public transportation safety investigations. 
            Re: “Why was the FBI the lead investigating agency?”  If there is probable cause of a criminal act, then the FBI does become the lead agency.  The law says that until there is probable cause of criminal act, the NTSB is the lead agency.  Given the early evidence, I think the probable cause threshold was met.
            Re: “Why did Clinton sign an Executive Order exempting crewmembers of the USS Grapple and USS Grasp from federal whistleblower protection?”  Short answer: the USG wanted all evidence collected during the recovery phase to be under the protection of the Classified Information Procedures Act (CIPA) [PL 96-456; 94 Stat. 2025; 15.10.1980][548], i.e., the USG wanted strict control of information being disseminated to the public, which is exactly why we have seen essentially none of the notes and evidence collected by the FBI or other federal agencies beyond the NTSB.  That action must be considered highly suspect in a commercial aircraft accident / incident investigation . . . perhaps even unprecedented.  This is also why I noted the classification duration expiration threshold in my earlier missive.
            Re: “Who believes that there are bare electrical wires running through B747 fuel tanks that could cause a spark?”  My answer: only people who know nothing of aircraft design and manufacturing practices, or believe the USG without question.  The NTSB’s ‘errant spark’ hypothesis defies engineering and physics, and the NTSB knows that.
            Re: “James Sanders wrote a good investigative book.  Yes, he did.  Unfortunately, I do not believe the evidence supports his likely hypothesis.  He did offer a compelling case, nonetheless.
            Re: “a huge government cover-up designed to protect Clinton in the 1996 election.  Plausible, yes.  Again, unfortunately, I have insufficient evidence to justify this hypothesis.  This is why the classified material thresholds are so important.  Eventually, the information will become public.  If this hypothesis is correct, it will probably come to light after ‘Bill-ary’ have passed.  To be frank, I was disappointed Bush (43) did not declassify all information associated with the TWA 800 investigation.  He did not, so we wait.

            Another contributor raised a query regarding a different commercial aircraft incident.
“I have not seen any new info on MS804.  Have you?  Shouldn’t we have seen something from the CVR/FDR examinations well before now?  The longer this goes on the more suspicious this becomes.”
My response:
            Re: MS804 [753].  There is no obligation or rule about releasing CVR/FDR data before the final report.  Many investigating agencies do release CVR/FDR data because of so much public interest, but there is no requirement.  I suspect the Egyptians feel they were burned by the KGL9268 fiasco [724].  If they have not released the data by now, I doubt they will release it until the final report, which might take a year or more.  I think they are being overly cautious rather than conspiratorial.
Follow-up comment:
“Yes, I suspected the same with the Egyptians.”
My follow-up reply:
            We’ll eventually see the final report for MS804 . . . as well as KGL9268 . . . someday.

            For those who are too distant from American football, the 49ers first string quarterback Colin Rand Kaepernick chose to remain seated on the bench during the playing of the national anthem – a disrespectful passive-aggressive action.  He claims that his ‘protest’ was just a simple exercise of the First Amendment rights to freedom of speech. Kaepernick explained his conduct in a public statement.  “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color. To me, this is bigger than football and it would be selfish on my part to look the other way.  There are bodies in the street and people getting paid leave and getting away with murder.”  Oh my, if the world was only that simple . . .
            The problem I have with Kaepernick’s “statement” boils down to the reality that he was “speaking” in the uniform of a professional football team.  He was not expressing his opinion as a private citizen.  He is seen in the image of the entire San Francisco 49ers football organization.  His action is no different from a police or military officer, or the President of the United States in a similar personal protest . . . as an agent of the larger organization he represents.  He is wrong and comes across as a pampered, over-paid, arrogant hypocrite with some sense of entitlement and special status.

            News from the economic front:
-- The Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 in August.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged from July at 4.9%.  While the hiring growth was lower than expected, the August numbers indicate the economy is still growing.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.767:
“I still don’t envy the responsibility of the Grand Republic - your choice is reedy with squeaky CVs from the combatants.  What can be done?  I assume it’s too late to encourage fresh alternative and prospective candidates.  Why has this Stein suddenly materialized?
“Anyway my friend keep working - I’m looking forward to reading your books.”
My reply:
            Indeed!  The best we can do is suck it up and pray sufficient numbers of citizens do the correct thing on Election Day in November.  Yes, it is too late for any new candidates, I do believe.  The filing deadlines for various states occur in late spring and summer, e.g., the Kansas filing deadline was 1.August.  So, for this year’s presidential election, the candidates are set.  We have what we have.
            Re: Jill Stein.  Well, actually, she has been prominent in the Green Party for quite some time.  She was the Green Party presumptive nominee for several months, although the Green Party did not have primaries like the Democratic and Republican Parties.  In Trump-parlance, the system is rigged to favor the Democratic and Republican Parties, and even the Commission on Presidential Debates is stocked with political operatives from the two major parties.  This is the time for the Libertarian and Green Parties to break through the barriers of the two-party system, reinforced by those same parties in Congress and by the law.

Comment to the Blog:
“What we face now with the limitations on Presidential debates is a unique potential fiasco.  One or both of the mainstream candidates may be eliminated by law enforcement, overwhelming scandal, or health issues. (Trump is lying about his health; Clinton is silent.) In that event, many voters will vote for either the Green or the Libertarian candidate without ever knowing how they perform under pressure or even much about their positions.
“In regard to how we choose who to include, I like your criterion but I would settle for 40 states with continuing effort until a month prior to the election. In most cases, that would include enough voters to carry an election, particularly if we eventually go to a multi-party system. My only cautionary note is that we need to consider ballot access in the various states.”
My response to the Blog:
            Well, for the sake of this Grand Republic, I hope you are wrong.  Regardless, we need all four parties represented in the debates, although we are not likely to reach a reasonable placement.
            Re: criteria.  The requirements common to all states is Article 2, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution:
1.  Natural born citizen
2.  At least 35 years of age
3.  Minimum of 14 years of residency
States usually have additional requirements beyond the Constitution to qualify to be placed on the ballot in a particular state.  In Kansas, an independent candidate must file a petition of qualification with the signatures of 5,000 qualified voters by the filing deadline of 1.August.  Even a write-in candidate must file an affidavit of qualification for any of the votes for him to be counted.  Well, 40 or 50, I’m not hard over for either one.  Ballot access remains the domain of the states.  Gaining ballot access in 40 or 50 states would still take money and organization well in advance to meet the requirements before the deadline in each state.  I think we have what we have for this quadrennial presidential election.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

2 comments:

Calvin R said...

The SpaceX rocket failure seems pretty much par for the course of vastly expanding a field of endeavor quickly. Given the nature of the investigators, we shall never know whether the object you described has any significance. My personal opinion is that an operation of this magnitude ought not to be in private hands. The oligarchy sees only potential return on investment and does not concern itself with cost to others.

I see Colin Kaepernick as wise to do his protesting in a a very public place and situation. Otherwise, he could become one more unarmed black man shot by the police, as so many have been. Alternatively, he could be attacked with dogs as the peaceful pipeline protesters in North Dakota have been or with pepper spray as were protesters at a peaceful rally on a college campus in California a year or two back. Nobody believes Mr. Kaepernick speaks for his football team, but no police officer is unwise enough to take revenge on him in a full stadium with cameras recording every square foot of it. He is merely following the example of Muhammad Ali and others who have used their prominence to further their cause. The shame of it is that the cause has not advanced more since Ali made his stand.

Cap Parlier said...

Calvin,
Re: SpaceX. Interesting perspective . . . certainly not devoid of truth, it seems to me. The NTSB should be doing the investigation . . . as they do with railroads, ships, highways and aircraft; but, as we know, even the NTSB is not removed from political influence, although by law, it is supposed to be beyond politics.

Re: Kaepernick. While I agree in part, I cannot agree with the premise anyone can say whatever they want whenever they want and in any circumstance they wish. Muhammed Ali spoke for himself; he represented no one else except himself. But hey, apparently, that is just my opinion . . . and that don’t matter a hoot for nothin’.

Cheers,
Cap