Update no.662

Update from the Heartland

No.662

18.8.14 – 24.8.14

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

A classmate, friend and fellow Marine sent along the following information for readers of the Update:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/book-review-blue-eyed-boy-a-memoirby-robert-timberg/2014/08/15/6e34e65a-18dc-11e4-9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html

“That's a link to a great review of the book I'm helping publicize.  Bob and I have been friends for more than 25 years and I have been a member of the chorus urging him to write his memoir.  He finally did and it's terrific.  Check it out.”

Semper Fi,

Fred

{The review:

Book review: ‘Blue-Eyed Boy: A Memoir,’ by Robert Timberg

by Matt Gallagher

Washington Post

Published: August 15 [2014]}

Based on his recommendation alone, I downloaded and started Timberg’s “Blue-Eyed Boy.”  I will offer my review once I have completed my reading.  I read Timberg’s “The Nightingale's Song” [1995], which I read shortly after it was released.  Upon completion, I wrote, “If you ever wondered about the chain of events that surrounded the Iran-Contra Scandal and the cast of characters involved in the affair, this is the book to read. Timberg, as a Class of '64 graduate, writes with insight and balance about five Naval Academy graduates, who bracket his time and are interwoven in this episode.”  Timberg is a former Marine, who was seriously wounded during combat operations in Vietnam, and he is an accomplished journalist and author.  I suspect Timberg will bring the same quality writing, incisive insight and unique perspective to his latest work – a more personal and intimate view of his contributions to this Grand Republic.  I will definitely let you know, if my perception is correct or not. 

On 22.August.2009, as a consequence of a traffic stop, David Leon Riley was arrested upon discovery of loaded firearms in his car.  The officers took Riley's smart phone, and searched through his messages, contacts, videos, and photographs.  Based in part on the data stored on Riley's phone, the officers charged him with an unrelated shooting that had taken place several weeks prior to his arrest.  Riley claimed the search of his smart phone contents violated his 4^th Amendment rights against unreasonable search and seizure.  The Supreme Court unanimously agreed with Riley and drew a sharp line with respect to digital media and law enforcement’s authority to conduct warrantless searches incident to arrest – Riley v. California [573 U.S. ___ (2014); nos. 13–132 & 13–212].  Chief Justice Roberts delivered the Court’s unanimous opinion.  “Privacy comes at a cost.  Our holding, of course, is not that the information on a cell phone is immune from search; it is instead that a warrant is generally required before such a search, even when a cell phone is seized incident to arrest.”  The Court’s case law provides for exceptions to the  4^th Amendment’s protections, permitting warrantless searches incident to arrest in two specific areas: protection of law enforcement and preservation of evidence.  The contents of a digital phone serve neither purpose, according to the unanimous Court.  They succinctly stated that if law enforcement is convinced evidence germane to an arrest is contained in a person’s cellphone, get a warrant!

            The capabilities and capacity of digital telephones, including current “smart” phones, and with the advent of “cloud computing” and other file sharing services, the reach of an individual smart phone is monumentally greater than anything in human history.  The prospect of even greater reach demands limits on the government’s intrusion upon our fundamental right to privacy.  The Supremes have drawn a clear line with their Riley ruling – no controversy in this decision.

News from the economic front:

-- The Justice Department announced a US$16.65B deal with Bank of America to settle the government's accusations that the bank and its acquired components – Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial – sold flawed mortgage securities in the run-up to the financial crisis.  The settlement requires the bank to pay US$9.65B in cash to several states and other government agencies, and to provide US$7B of assistance for struggling mortgage consumers through direct actions such as modifying mortgages for borrowers who are upside-down with their home mortgages, or donating money to housing counseling agencies.  The agreement is reportedly the largest settlement ever reached between the United States and a single company.  Further, former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo and presumably other bank managers are reportedly still facing criminal charges for their contributions to the 2008 mortgage meltdown that led to the Great Recession.

-- At the Fed-sponsored conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen carefully avoided breaking any new ground on monetary policy, and she highlighted the uncertainty about the capacity in the U.S. labor market to create jobs before inflation begins to increase.  The implicit message seemed to be that the Fed may raise interest rates earlier than previously forecast to avoid inflation.

-- The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has signaled his growing concern about high unemployment and low inflation in the eurozone, and his willingness to support member countries having more flexibility relative to the ECB’s strict rules on government deficits.

-- In a progressing sign of the times, the Wall Street Journal reported that Burger King is in talks to buy Canadian coffee-and-doughnut chain Tim Hortons, with the intent of moving the headquarters of the combined, US$18B market value, restaurant company to Canada to avoid U.S. taxes – a scheme called tax inversion.  The takeover would create the third-largest quick-service restaurant provider in the world.

Comments and contributions from Update no.661:

Comment to the Blog:

“I disagree that investigations will prove exactly how Mike Brown's death came about. See your own discussion of Flight 800 for how disputes remain after investigation. Endlessly pursuing details typically causes the investigators to ignore social background and people's attitudes. Disputes based in those factors keep controversies going indefinitely, as in the Lincoln and Kennedy assassinations.

“The Abramski case attempts to clarify murky lawmaking. I will note that at least two of the categories as given, addicts and the domestically violent, consist mostly of the undetected. The only real point I see in this case is that law enforcement officers tend to disregard law as applied to them. This is common knowledge (or a social background issue, if you prefer) among poor people, especially among minorities. That, my friend, is what powers the unrest in Ferguson, Missouri. We assume that ordinary police officers act on their own attitudes, including racism, and give lip service to actual law. Law enforcement compounds the problem by taking the usual all-out suppression approach.”

My response to the Blog:

            Re: Brown death.  How about this . . . why don’t we wait to read the various investigation reports before we judge the results?  Facts are vital in all investigations.  Let’s see the facts, first.

            Re: Abramski.  OK, I’ll bite.  How did LE disregard the law in the Abramski case?  I think the Court majority stated the facts quite clearly.  Abramski answered Question 11a “YES” when he knew he was buying the pistol for his uncle.  The law does not make exceptions for gifts.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“Your belief in investigations and their reports would be more credible if you did not write books about Flight 800. My point refers to the fact that most poor people do not believe in police officers being well motivated or following their own rules unless they know the officer personally and have seen that trait, which is not an especially common experience among the poor.

“If I recall correctly, Abramski is a law enforcement officer or former officer who was not interested in following the law as written.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            Re: investigations.  Point taken.  We would not have had the motivation to write the book if there were not more than a few gaps in the official NTSB investigation and public statements.  As we suggested, the USG may have had several reasons to short stop the investigation and deflect public attention.  Until we see the whole picture, we will not know.  In the current case (Brown), there are apparently three independent investigations, so it is less likely anyone can cover-up the facts.

            Re: Abramski.  So, Bruce Abramski is all of law enforcement?  It is important to note, Abramski was terminated for cause, two years previous to the firearm purchase, thus his identification was technically no longer valid.  He was not involved with law enforcement when he purchased that pistol.

Another contribution:

“Good stuff.  I am skeptical of the NTSB report [regarding TWA Flight 800], especially in light of the observations of military aircrew in the area.

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/mystery-of-twa-flight-800-persists-15-years-later/

[The article:

“Mystery of TWA Flight 800 Persists, 15 Years Later”

by Roger Aronoff

accuracyinmedia.com

Published: July 22, 2011]

“And a reprise of the theory that a Standard missile from NORMANDY- off Wallops Island, VA- was the cause. And accident.”

My reply:

            The friendly fire hypothesis has persisted for quite some time.  As we analyze in our book, a Standard missile is a powerful, very capable, weapon system.  The physical evidence of a Standard missile (in any variant) impact would be pervasive, substantial, irrefutable and impossible to cover-up – massive penetrations, high energy impacts, explosive residue, et cetera.  There is no physical evidence of such an impact.  A number of the hypotheses can be eliminated by the paucity of any physical evidence – the SM-2 impact is in that category.  On point, there is a vast difference between an SM-2 impact damage and an FIM-92 (SA-13) impact damage; an SM-2 could easily destroy an B747 at 13,700 ft., while an FIM-92 would be close to its limits and would be expected to take on an engine, not such a large aircraft, e.g., the DHL A300 hit by SA-13 on climb out from Baghdad at 8,000 feet [22.11.2003]. 

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

Update no.661

Update from the Heartland

No.661

11.8.14 – 17.8.14

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

The follow-up news items:

-- The TWA Flight 800 incident [17.July.1996] remains an event of continuing and apparently perpetual interest to more than a few of us [102-4, 115, 115A, 122, 125, 140, 147, 150-1, 154, 168, 171, 222-3, 235, 240, 245, 268, 269, 272, 281, 290, 332, 345, 443, 601-2, 639, 655, 657, 661].  Dr. Tom Stalcup, PhD (physics), has been a stalwart, consistent and insightful critic of the government’s public investigation of the incident.  I missed his latest effort circa the 18^th anniversary, so I note it in this week’s Update for those who remain concerned about the government’s investigation.  Please watch this video-clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyluFVxqBlo&app=desktop

A reminder: to my knowledge, there has never been any question regarding what happened during the ground preparation, taxi and takeoff of TWA Flight 800, or what happened to the aircraft after the fuel-air vapor ignited in the Center Wing Tank (CWT), if we exclude the debate over the so-called “zoom climb,” used to discredit further discredit the CIA video.  The sole issue has been and remains: what caused the ignition of the combustible atmosphere in the CWT that evening.  The total exclusion of eyewitness data from the official NTSB investigation persists as a near extraordinary hole in the government’s investigation.  We relied upon fragmentary, incomplete information from Press reports and a few witness statements obtained from the Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office, which would be considered at best raw data, as there is no correlation to other factual data associated with the event timeline or corroboration assessments; that information was sufficient to convince me something was not correct with respect to the government’s public statements.  As Tom notes quite effectively, the government relies heavily on a CIA-produced animation to disengage the FBI and deflect, diminished or discount the undisclosed eyewitness information.  To this date, We, the People, have never received an explanation, rationale or justification for the denial of eyewitness data, which in turn raises significant suspicions regarding the integrity of the investigation.  Tom has worked tirelessly to connect with some of the eyewitnesses who have come forward or been identified, and has attempted to correlate their information with the event timeline.  That said, it is essential to note, as every accident investigator can testify, eyewitness information is rarely accurate and is often misleading, yet the collective body usually offers valuable “coloring” to the technical analysis and the process of connecting the dots to paint the picture of what happened.  In the case of the TWA Flight 800 incident, we are denied that important information, especially since the aircraft data gives us no information as to what was occurring exterior to the aircraft.  Perhaps, the USG wants to maintain the comfort of their position – trust us, there is nothing relevant in the eyewitness data as illuminated by the CIA animation video.  The 20-year mark is approaching, and I expect the missing Eyewitness Group report and the associated data to be publicly released and subjected to critical public scrutiny.  We may not gain access to the military and intelligence data until the 50-year mark, but it will eventually become public as well.  Until then, I urge you to attentively watch Tom’s latest video debunking the CIA animation video.

My evolving opinion of the violence in Ferguson, Missouri, a suburb of St. Louis, has fluctuated wildly as events transpired subsequent to Ferguson Police Officer Darren Wilson, 28, shooting and killing Michael Brown, 18, who was apparently unarmed, although a rather large man.  The events leading to the fatal, Saturday, 9.August confrontation remain far too confusing and uncertain for a clear view.  The publicly available information suggests Officer Wilson escalated the confrontation quickly and for unknown reasons.  The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have been called in to conduct a separate, independent investigation, to determine whether federal law(s) may have been violated.  Missouri Governor Jay Nixon deployed the state police to supervise policing in Ferguson and later declared a state of emergency.  At this stage, I am confident the investigators will sort out what happen leading up to the fatal shooting.  I comment today out of blooming anger over the ambulance chaser opportunists who always show up to stoke the smoldering embers of perceived injustice.  They thrive on generating what must be called mobs with essentially no control or order.  Of course, anarchists, hooligans and criminals are attracted to such crowds to degenerate and unravel what moral fabric may exist among the local protesters and populace. Then, we have looting, thievery, property damage and random violence. The bad actors use “protest” crowds as cover for their violence and destruction, just as Islamofascists use innocent citizens for cover.  The initiating event was bad enough.  What happened afterward is far worse, in my humble opinion.  Saner minds should have prevailed in the volatile environment.  Unfortunately, once again, those opportunists who apparently are far more driven by the perceived solidarity of the “protests” than they are about public safety or the plight of the local population disappoint us.  It appears recent events are meant to achieve chaos as a public price to pay rather than a demonstration about injustice.  I look forward to the day we no longer have to endure their ilk.  This has got to stop!

Associate Justice Elena Kagan wrote for the narrow 5-4 majority in the rather odd-duck, Second Amendment case of Abramski v. United States [573 U.S. ___ (2014); no. 12–1493].  The Court’s decision is not so much about the Second Amendment, other than it involves the sale of firearms.  It is more about a straw purchaser making a false statement during the requirement background check process involved in the sale of a pistol from a federally licensed firearms dealer.   The whole case boils down to a yes-no response on ATF Form 4473 – Firearms Transaction Record Part I - Over-the-Counter, specifically, Question 11a, which asks:

“Are you the actual transferee/buyer of the firearm(s) listed on this form? Warning: You are not the actual buyer if you are acquiring the firearm(s) on behalf of another person. If you are not the actual buyer, the dealer cannot transfer the firearm(s) to you. (See Instructions for Question 11.a.) Exception: If you are picking up a repaired firearm(s) for another person, you are not required to answer 11.a. and may proceed to question 11.b.”

[bold & italics as shown on Form 4473]. 

In this instance, Bruce Abramski offered to buy a Glock 19, 9x19mm, semi-automatic pistol for his uncle, Angel Alvarez.  Abramski was a former police officer who thought he could obtain a discount on the purchase for his uncle by using his no longer valid police identification credential.  Although not stated anywhere in the ruling, I suspect it was Abramski’s attempt to obtain a discount with a false police identification that actually flagged the sale in the first place.  Nonetheless, Abramski answered “Yes” to Question 11a, when he knew he was purchasing the pistol for his uncle, and he received a check from his uncle, which he promptly cashed.  Thus, according to the majority, Abramski violated 18 USC § 922(a)(6) {Gun Control Act of 1968 (AKA GCA or GCA68) [PL 90-618; 82 Stat. 1213, 1218; 22.10.1968]}.  The law was intended to prevent the transfer of firearms to unauthorized or prohibited individuals or organizations.  Neither Abramski nor Uncle Angel Alvarez were in any of the specified groups, thus both qualified as legal purchasers; however, it was Abramski’s answer to Question 11a and the Court’s very strict interpretation of “actual buyer” that generated this case in Richmond, Virginia, through the federal courts to the Supreme Court.  Kagan noted, “Abramski thwarted application of essentially all of the firearms law's requirements.  We can hardly think of a misrepresentation any more material to a sale's legality.”  She did add, “Alvarez could have [legally] bought a gun for himself.”  Associate Justice Antonin Scalia wrote for the dissent and concluded, “The Court makes it a federal crime for one lawful gun owner to buy a gun for another lawful gun owner. Whether or not that is a sensible result, the statutes Congress enacted do not support it--especially when, as is appropriate, we resolve ambiguity in those statutes in favor of the accused.”

            To me, this ruling represents precisely the most basic fear of law-abiding citizens, regarding the application of firearms laws.  Both the majority and the dissent acknowledged the congressional intent of the GCA68 was expressly to keep firearms out of the hands of:

1.  felons

2.  fugitives from justice

3.  controlled substance users and addicts

4.  mentally ill

5.  illegal aliens

6.  citizens dishonorably discharged from the military

7.  citizens who have renounced their citizenship

8.  citizens subject to specified court orders

9.  those convicted of domestic violence or trafficking in firearms

[summarized from 18 USC §922(g).]

The GCA68 law and subsequent revisions did not address straw purchases for citizens not identified in 18 USC §922(g).  Yet, in the hands of zealous law enforcement and prosecutors, this is what we get – a very broad dragnet that will undoubtedly make criminals of innocent, peaceful, law-abiding citizens.  Now, thanks to the Abramski ruling, it is illegal to gift a pistol or any other firearm to another lawful citizen, even a spouse or other family member.  If I had been in Abramski’s position and purchasing a small-caliber pistol for my wife, I probably would have answered “yes” to Question 11a as well, even though the pistol was intended for my wife.

            That said, I must note for the record, I could easily and readily argue this case from either side – it is that marginal.  Yet, ultimately, I think the Court got it wrong in that they have now allowed the prosecutorial net to be cast far too broadly beyond the intent of Congress.

News from the economic front:

-- The eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, contracted by 0.2% in 2Q2014, while the zone’s second largest economy, France, remained stagnant (0.0%) in the same period.  The disappointing results probably reflect the consequences of the continuing unrest in Eastern Ukraine and doubts about the region’s capacity to recovery from the Great Recession.

Comments and contributions from Update no.660:

“Goodness Cap a novel size update!

“Wars with the French, Trafalgar and Nelson 1815/ 65million years ago and the tribes, no we were still wallowing in the slime pits then surely?

“However a good read mate from a windy and cooler Suffolk U/K.”

My reply:

            LOL.  These things happen . . . a very long thread in the Comments section bulked up last week’s Update.

            I was suggesting we could use many examples of protracted conflict . . . between the British & French at least back to 1337, and indeed Napoleon was finally beaten by the troops of the Duke of Wellington and surrendered a month later aboard HMS Bellérophon in 1815 . . . nearly 500 years of conflict.  The 65M years milestone is a time frame when primates appeared on Earth and formed tribes for protection and survival.  I suppose the last one was a bit of a stretch.  I don’t have a marker for the slime pit, but I might suggest that might go back 400M to 4B years ago.  OK, let us use 50K years ago when anatomical homo sapiens sapiens began to dominate Earth.  Regardless, humans have been fighting for one reason or another for a very long time, so the Palestinian-Israeli tussle is quite young by comparison.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“But yes we are, us homo sapiens a war like species as we have proven so many times.

“Let’s look forward to peace in Gaza.”

 . . . my follow-up reply:

            Re: homo sapiens.  Indeed!  Perhaps someday, we shall out grow our propensity for violence and mature as a species.

            Re: Gaza.  I’m with you my friend.

Another contribution:

“From Colonel Pat Lang’s blog…not that much in the U.S. media about this in the moving into the Green Zone of mostly pro-Shia troops:

“Inkilab 'Askari (Coup d'Etat) in Baghdad?

“It appears that a putsch against the constitutional government of Iraq is underway in Baghdad.  This seems to be on behalf of Nuri al-Maliki and against the newly elected Sunni Arab president of the country and the parliament.  Maliki has been under great pressure from the U.S. to leave office because it has been thought that he has largely been responsible for the alienation of many of Iraq's Sunni Arab population.  He is said to have done this by oppressing that population as a means of advancing the interests of his own group, the Shia Arabs.

“An alternative narrative of what is occurring is Maliki's claim that he is protecting the city against someone else's coup. 

“According to early reports large numbers of Ministry of Interior police troops (overwhelmingly Shia and loyal to Maliki) have taken control of the various bridges over the Tigris River that separate Shia East Baghdad from largely Sunni West Baghdad.  These police troops are reinforced by armored vehicles that must come from the Iraqi Army.  They have moved in strength into the Green Zone, which contains the US Embassy, the Parliament and various government facilities.

“If Maliki wishes to seize control of West Baghdad it is difficult to see what would stop him.”

PL

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/10/us-iraq-security-maliki-military-idUSKBN0GA0WM20140810 and

http://www.news.com.au/world/troops-surround-baghdad-green-zone-as-embattled-prime-minister-maliki-appears-to-cling-to-power/story-fndir2ev-1227020033404

Another contribution on a different topic:

“Any thoughts on this.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpDKuN3cV_o

My response:

            In short: the hypothesis presented is plausible. 

            The Ukraine does possess several squadrons of Su-25 attack aircraft, and the Su-25 is armed with an integral 30mm cannon.  The only use of ball ammunition is for basic training purposes.  Certainly, they could load a can-load of ball ammunition, if they chose to do so.  As mentioned last week, the common combat load is usually a mix of various explosive rounds, e.g., HE, AP, WP, et cetera.  The image shown last week as well as in the vid-clip do not show indications of explosive warheads of any sort that I could see . . . just moderate-energy, ballistic impacts.

            Russia is one of the most accomplished and successful false-flag operators, which is not to say the Ukraine did not learn well from the KGB, NKVD, SVR, FSB, et al; they certainly have been the victim of Russian false-flag operations (1941/2).  The resultant international outrage and reaction would certainly substantiate the success of the operation, if it was a Ukrainian false-flag operation.  It is equally plausible the vid-clip is a false-flag, false-flag effort by the Russian to deflect accusations.

            The only hope we have of sorting it out will be an independent, expert investigation that can establish the authenticity and chain of custody for the evidentiary data.  I suspect the Russians will not be helpful to the independent investigation.

            In the light of all the conflicting information, my intuition still says the most likely scenario is a Russian firing unit, provided to the rebels, mostly manned by Russians, or possibly a Russian-trained, rebel firing crew, and an engagement of what the crew thought was a Ukrainian aircraft, but turned out to be MH-17.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“thx- interesting the analysis of the tape, as well.

“Also other commentators have mentioned the Spanish controller.  Now I see what the issue was.  A lot of loose clues floating around!!

“What is odd is that there has been no analysis of the black boxes...understand they have been found.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            Loose ends, indeed!  As the mathematicians say, too many variables and not enough equations.  It is a near perfect situation for misinformation to induce confusion and doubt. 

            Re: black boxes.  To my knowledge, both the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) have been recovered and transferred to the Dutch (and probably the British AAIB or French BEA).  I am fairly certain both units have been examined by now, probably initial and secondary interrogations.  If the status has been made public, the Press has not picked it up.  We need to know authentication of both units as well as integrity, i.e., have they been tampered with?  A few aviation sites report they have valid data from both units, but I’ve not seen official authentication.  Given the uncertainty on the ground at the crash site, I doubt the authorities will release the associated data without public demand, until the ground investigators have done as much as they can do in situ, given the proximate combat.  I would not be surprised if there were signs of SVR efforts to watch what is evolving inside the investigation team.  The FDR & CVR data should provide very important information regarding what happened. 

            Re: vid-clip.  A few additional observations on the U-Tube vid-clip: I am quite suspicious of the commentators claim the single recovered piece (we have been discussing) is a long way from being definitive of either cannon fire or “targeting the pilot.”  We need a lot more definitive evidentiary data to substantiate a claim like that in this instance.  There was way too much loosey-goosey, suggestive information, which simply heightens my doubt regarding the clips premise.  Further, if the evidence conflicts with the Russian hypothesis, it would be further implication regarding Russian culpability in this incident.

 . . . and one more round before publication:

“I am skeptical too of the Su-25 shootdown – however, I noted that some of the holes in the wreckage are round, like ball ammo – and not like that from a missile.  

“Also, the longer the black box details are kept out of the public, the more speculation- especially since the boxes are with the Dutch or another Western country.  Further, there was a NATO exercise ongoing at the time in the Black Sea region, BREEZE 2014 that should have electronic records of the MH17 flight.  The fact that nothing has been released from what records should be available is curious.

“The Spanish controller might also be a fake, and the Ukrainian General Prosecutor is reported to have said that the Ukrainian rebels did not have a Buk missile system.

“Stay tuned....”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            Re: MH-17 penetrations.  I noticed that as well.  I am not that familiar with the SA-11 warhead, i.e., I’ve not see representative, burst, test patterns.  I know it is a fragmentation warhead, which is common among SAM weapons.  It appeared the impact trajectory was a fairly sharp, oblique angle to the fuselage skin.  Fragments can make strange patterns.  I did not see signs of high energy or explosive impacts.

            Re: FDR & CVR data.  I believe the actual units have been transferred to the AAIB (UK) for download.  It is not clear who will analyze the data – probably a combination group.  I do agree; withholding the flight data will only add to speculation.  Perhaps the authorities remain concerned about the safety and security of the field team.  Once they are safe and out of the combat zone, hopefully, they will release the data for public scrutiny.

            Re: Operation BREEZE 2014.  Thx for the information; I had not been aware of the NATO, Black Sea exercise in proximity to the MH-17 event.  I have not heard anything from those warships.  I would feel a lot better if we had a U.S. Navy Aegis-class cruiser in the Northern Black Sea at the time.

            Re: rebel Buk system.  Interesting!  So, if true and it was an SA-11 missile involved in the shootdown, then it was either Russian or Ukrainian.  I am not sure how they will sort that out.

Comment to the Blog:

“I understand that the various spy agencies have long argued about who is more incompetent or crooked than whom, but that is simply the result of that dualistic outlook among the unsupervised. It's rather like giving kindergarteners real weapons with live ammunition. The question is whether the adults can regain control.

“I'll say again that the real issue facing spies everywhere is the increasing difficulty of maintaining secrecy. Regardless of any opinions about what should be, what has always been, etc., a question remains. If the spy agencies, Facebook, Google, and various other entities can obtain anyone's information almost at will, can complete, involuntary openness/transparency be far behind? That ought to be interesting.

“I had a difficult time understanding the Aero lawsuit. If the programming in question is actually broadcast (rather than delivered via cable or satellite to only paying customers), the point is probably moot anyhow. Even if not, the trip to the Supreme Court has given this technology enough publicity to open the way for an underground market that will thrive.

“In reference to copyright and several other issues, I will recommend a book. Free: the Future of a Radical Price, by Chris Anderson (ISBN 1446409554) centers on Internet commerce but touches upon numerous other topics. The basis of his discussion is how authors, musicians, and other creative people can adapt to the fact that copyright protection has become impossible. As a small-time writer, I found it fascinating and relevant. Anderson uses numerous examples from a broad spectrum of the business world to show that profitability can be maintained by a major change of perspective. (I got my Kindle copy for free, of course, but the hardback is around $14.95 on amazon.com.) Anderson published in 2008. Since then, the advent of 3D printing has made this work even more important.

“I never really expected the FDIC to become the guardian of sanity in banking, but I certainly welcome them if it plays out that way.”

My response to the Blog:

            Re: spy agencies.  We shall respectfully disagree.

            Re: secrecy.  You are probably quite correct.  However, as a consequence, we are likely to experience far more misinformation usage to cause confusion as to what is real.

            Re: Aereo.  The case was marginal at best from the get-go.  To put it simply, the Court erred on the side of the copyright holder. According to the law, the case could have easily been decided either way.  The broadcast networks are desperate to adapt to a vastly different medium than they enjoyed in their heyday.

            Re: copyright.  Without copyright protection, why should authors, musicians or artists create anything new or original?

            Re: FDIC.  Indeed.  Agreed.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

Update no.660

Update from the Heartland

No.660

4.8.14 – 10.8.14

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

The following article is nearly 15 years old and was recently sent to me by a friend and frequent contributor to this humble forum.

“The Intelligence Gap – How the digital age left our spies out in the cold.”

by Seymour M. Hersh

The New Yorker

Published: December 6, 1999

http://cryptome.org/nsa-hersh.htm

It was suggested the article’s premise and title hypothesis remain valid today.  I have not and do not subscribe to The New Yorker, so I must rely upon others to illuminate opinions, as in this case.  In a broad, general sense, I do not disagree with Hersh’s opinion.  The United States has had more than a few failures in just my lifetime.  However, I will quibble with the implications of Hersh’s opinion as well as incorrectly stated facts really irritate me.  Hersh believed the National Security Agency (NSA), this Grand Republic’s signals intelligence organization, failed to alert the U.S. Government of nuclear tests conducted by India in May 1998.  First, India detonated its first nuclear device on 18.May.1974; the testing to which Hersh refers was actually the second round of underground tests carried out by India.  More importantly, Hersh lays the blame for this clear intelligence failure squarely upon the NSA.  I will argue that to do so demonstrates a profound paucity of knowledge with respect to the history, capabilities and operations of the United States Intelligence Community (IC).

            I have often pointed my accusatory finger at the Church Committee and President Carter for signing into law the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 (FISA): [PL 95-511; 92 Stat. 1783; 25.10.1978]; it is the obvious source of our intelligence limitations.  However, even this simple point is far too simple.  There are many other previous, less obvious, progenitor culprits for our scorn regarding intelligence failures.  To offer a couple of examples, I will illuminate an opinion and action by then Secretary of State Henry Lewis Stimson, who in 1929, on his assumption of office, when he learned of the Cipher Bureau (a joint Army-State signals intelligence unit, also euphemistically referred to as the Black Chamber), he proclaimed, “Gentlemen do not read each other's mail.”  Stimson immediately zeroed the State Department’s funding contribution.  The War Department chose not to carry the funding alone.  The Cipher Bureau ceased operations.  [NOTE: Stimson changed his opinion of signals intelligence when he became Secretary of War in 1940.]  Further, even a cursory examination of the monumental, bureaucratic obstacles and myopic political in-fighting involved in the formation of the Coordinator of Information (COI) [1941] and the Office of Strategic Services (OSS) [1942] will present yet another likely source for our failings.  My point with this little trip down memory lane is, the contemporary failures of U.S. intelligence are far larger, pervasive and endemic than one segment of the IC, or even one administration.

            At the bottom line, Stimson’s 1929 opinion is laudable in a society of respect, peace and order; the definition of ethical conduct remains clear, simple and easily understood in a respectful society.  However, as Stimson recognized in 1940, evil men intent upon destruction, oppression and subjugation present an entirely different environment and conditions.  Electronic intelligence and technical means are a long way from the mind and thought processes of evil men.  Until that time comes, Human Intelligence (HumInt) is the only way to obtain vital intelligence to alert the President (and perhaps the public) to significant events like the 1998 Indian nuclear tests.  The United States has rarely been at the forefront of HumInt operations.  I could also argue the world’s preeminent HumInt organizations – Britain’s MI-6 & MI-5, Russia’s Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki (SVR), France’s Direction Générale de Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE), or Germany’s Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) – have their share of intelligence failures as well. 

            Now, with all that said and as I mentioned at the outset, I do agree with Hersh’s general opinion; the NSA has not kept up with the very rapid evolution of cyberspace and the digital world.  While the leadership of the NSA, CIA, et al, bear responsibility and accountability for weaknesses in their respective organizations, I will argue that the ultimate responsibility and accountability rests with the President and Congress, if not We, the People.  After all, it is our sense of moral outrage at the ugliness of HumInt in a world filled with a few, evil, bad men that imposes the shackles, constraints and bindings upon the IC, which in turn create significant gaps in the capabilities and performance of our Intelligence Community.

A request for my opinion:

“As a pilot, I am interested in your take on this...question of Air-Air missile or MG fire brining down the plane.

“Interesting, click on the large picture of the cockpit wreckage... I was dismissive of the thought of fire by a fighter, but when you look close up, it could be.  What appear to be round holes about the size of a 30mm are in the wreckage of the cockpit area.

“The analysis by the German pilot makes sense.  However, I haven't ruled out a proximity-fused SAM hit.- would like to see more forensics.”

Here is the article & URL:

“Shocking Analysis of the ‘Shooting Down’ of Malaysian MH17”

by Peter Haisenko

anderweltonline.com

Published: July 30, 2014

http://www.anderweltonline.com/wissenschaft-und-technik/luftfahrt-2014/shocking-analysis-of-the-shooting-down-of-malaysian-mh17/

My opinion:

            The air-to-air shoot down hypothesis, first presented by the Russians, has been around for a while.  The image in Haisenko’s Blog is a new one for me.  I have seen other “penetration” images, but that one is good.  A few thoughts . . .

            With all these “unofficial” images, the primary issue is the chain of custody, so to speak – the linkage to the aircraft via part number, serial numbers, material properties, tampering, et cetera.  From the image, I cannot establish that critical connection.  That said . . .

            The image shows clear evidence of penetrations . . . not particularly high energy, appear to be comparatively large size, with impacts at an oblique angle.  The window edge appears to be typical of cockpit windscreen exterior installations; however, I cannot identify where this piece would be located.  The experts can and probably will perform trajectory analysis on the penetrations to determine the relative source coordinates; that vector analysis will likely answer the question regarding root cause.

            What is not apparent in the image is evidence of explosive impacts that would be indicative of cannon fire – most aerial cannons at 20mm or larger use explosive warheads.

            If the assembly in the image is at it appears, I’d still say a large surface-to-air missile was the likely root cause.  I do not see the evidence of a 30mm aerial cannon as Haisenko suggests.  I also do not agree that the Russian “radar data” is definitive or even applicable; again, the experts should be able to make quick work of that stuff.

            I also do not agree with his exclusion of the Su-25.  The Su-25 is more than capable of bringing down a B777 in cruise flight at FL330.  So far, I do not see the evidence of typical air-to-air weapon damage.  Thus, I do not concur with Haisenko’s conclusion: “But that this remains pure speculation. The shelling of the cockpit of air Malaysia MH 017, however, is definitely not.”

Copyright law is an absolutely critical protection for creative folks who generate original material like music, movies, books and in a recent Supreme Court case broadcast television programming – American Broadcasting Cos. v. Aereo, Inc. [573 U.S. ___ (2014); no. 13–461].  The American Broadcasting Companies, Incorporated, claimed their performance copyrights were infringed by Aereo, Incorporated (formerly known as Bamboom Labs, Inc.) when the latter provided specific electronic equipment to allow subscribers to capture, watch and record selected broadcast programming.  Associate Justice Breyer wrote for the 6-3 majority and the Court, “Congress made . . . changes to achieve a similar end: to bring the activities of cable systems within the scope of the Copyright Act” [PL 94-553; 90 Stat. 2541; 19.10.1976].  Breyer went on to conclude, “Aereo ‘perform[s]’ petitioners’ copyrighted works ‘publicly,’ as those terms are defined by the Transmit Clause” [§ 101, 90 Stat. 2541, 2543].  The dissenting opinion written by Antonin the Impaler contended the majority inappropriately extended the definitions established by Congress.  He made a cogent and compelling argument, although not sufficient to convince me his view of the law was correct.  Nonetheless, it is important to illuminate one of Scalia’s observations.  “[The Supreme Court] came within one vote of declaring the VCR contraband 30 years ago in {Sony Corp. of America v. Universal City Studios, Inc. [464 U. S. 417 (1984)]}.  Now, that is a sobering and stark reality as well as an exclamatory punctuation on this issue.

            What the Court does not say: the law, as passed by Congress, has not kept pace with technological advancement and the entrepreneurial application of those technologies.  The explosive expansion of technical means of communication, transmittal, sharing and such have threatened copyright law for decades, and the pace of change appears to be accelerating.  While the Supremes in the Aereo case stood with the original creators, Scalia’s challenge to Congress remains precisely valid and appropriate; yet, the challenge does not rest with Congress alone.

            Television programming began a half century ago with three companies in competition for the viewer’s attention with income for their creative works coming from advertisers.  Performances could not be recorded without very expensive and large equipment far beyond the public capacity.  The same limitation was true for music, books and such.  Now, original works can be recorded, stored, repeatedly viewed, shared with others, and even easily sold without compensation to the originator.  Such capacity is pervasive in society.  The television broadcast networks are struggling with their business paradigm and protecting their creative work.  The Aereo decision is a stopgap action at the very best and certainly not the definitive legal judgment.

            As one of those miniscule individual citizens who is creating original material, I urge Congress to update the applicable laws, and more importantly, I strongly recommend every citizen be mindful of copyright law and protect the rights of the creators.  We all appreciate and seek free stuff, but doing so often penalizes the creators and ultimately stifles creative works.  ‘Nuf said!

News from the economic front:

-- The Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said the bankruptcy plans submitted by 11 of the nation's biggest banks make “unrealistic or inadequately supported” assumptions and “fail to make, or even to identify, the kinds of changes in firm structure and practices that would be necessary to enhance the prospects for” an orderly failure.  The sweeping rebuke to the big banks is just the latest move in the continuing federal action to dissipate the economic impact of the too-big-to-fail banks that contributed to the 2008 banking collapse and led to the Great Recession.  The banks must show “significant” progress by July 2015, toward acceptable procedures for an orderly bankruptcy without causing broad, damaging economic repercussions.  The Federales raised the specter of slapping banks with tougher capital, leverage and other rules as well as forcibly breaking them up, if significant progress is not made in addressing shortcomings.

-- The European Central Bank governing council kept its main refinancing rate at 0.15% and continuing to charge 0.1% on a portion of banks’ reserves parked in its coffers for the second month in a row.

Comments and contributions from Update no.659:

Comment to the Blog:

“I propose a simpler reason China might defend Russia's position re Ukraine. Perhaps they would rather Putin expanded to his west rather than attack China or its near neighbors. I continue to see an assumption on all sides that the shoot-down was deliberate. I find that hard to believe.

“I would like to see John Brennan fired or retired for his actions in hacking Senate information. While I'm not a Feinstein fan, let us remember that the CIA is supposed to serve the government, not the other way around. In order to appropriately manage the spy community, the highest levels of government must necessarily know what they have done.

“I rather like your linked article from Geopolitical Weekly, ‘Gaming Israel and Palestine.’ Mr. Friedman disregards the human cost of all this bloodshed, but then so do all the players. His assessment of the balance issue is spot on, although I find him a little optimistic with his hope for a peaceful resolution in fifty years. Each side wants its ethnic/religious group to triumph over the other and will fight to the death for that goal. Both sides, in that way, resemble Nazi Germany. Short-sighted people have carried on the underlying conflict for millennia, and I believe they will continue until one side exterminates everyone on the other side who is able to pick up arms. Maybe everyone. Neither Mr. Friedman nor I see a reason to debate the details of the latest incident. The important debate for the U.S. is why we continue to put our wealth into this conflict.

“The seeds of the dimwitted lawsuit against the President of the United States were planted on Election Night of his first term. If you re-read the statements of the Republicans from that night and the next day, you will understand that they oppose Obama personally to the exclusion of all else, including the good of the nation.

“The economy continues to improve on paper. I would like to bring up an issue that receives little discussion. One can easily find evidence that many of the unemployed served in jobs that were not sent overseas or anywhere else but were permanently eliminated by automation or other technology. Does anyone believe that the debatable growth in the economy will replace those jobs with others for which the unemployed might be trained?”

My response to the Blog:

Calvin,

            I cannot see any impact regarding your switch in word processing systems.

            Re: PRC.  Valid point . . . although Russia has shown comparatively little interest in the East, perhaps because they have far more land buffer than they have to the west.

            Re: Brennan.  I am not quite sure why you are down on Brennan beyond he is the DCI left holding the bag?  The disagreement between the CIA and the Senate Intelligence Committee staffers occurred well before Brennan’s tenure.  He did the proper thing it seems to me.  What those Senate staffers did was quite wrong and should have been prosecuted; however, what some folks in the CIA did as a consequence was far more wrong on multiple levels. 

            Re: Palestine.  The crusades ended after 150 years.  The perpetual war between France and England ended after 500 years.  We could argue Islam has been at war with anyone who does not believe as they believe since its creation in 632 AD.  The genesis of the latest violence is caught up in the tangle of propaganda.  The solution must exceed these damnable flare-ups.  To my thinking, the solution rests in a Palestinian State.

            Re: “The important debate for the US is why we continue to put our wealth into this conflict.”  The support of the United States for a Jewish homeland has been strong since 1922.  As long as the IRI, Hamas, Hezbollah, et al, profess their objective as the annihilation of Israel, I cannot see U.S. policy changing. 

            Re: House lawsuit.  Agreed.  I see the H. Res. 676 action as pure political theater for the pending election with little prospect to even reach judgment, set aside success.

            Re: “Does anyone believe that the debatable growth in the economy will replace those jobs with others for which the unemployed might be trained?”  My simple answer: yes.  I think the more germane question is, who is willing to be re-trained?  And, who will pay for the training?  The individual unemployed person clearly cannot.  So, the choices are narrowed to corporations, the State, or some combination thereof.  I am also concerned about the will of some unemployed or underemployed to seek another profession.

  “That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”

Cheers,

Cap

Round two:

“I will admit to seeing Brennan as a handy target. The reality is that given the nature of the spy services, tracking down the actual decision makers and perpetrators and actually bringing them real consequences will not be possible. By getting rid of Brennan we can at least give his successors reason to be cautious.

“Re Palestine: This began before either Judaism or Islam came into existence. Historians can document conflict back to the time the Canaanites returned from Egypt to find "their" land occupied by others. One explanation I saw somewhere for this sticks in my mind. The land east of the Mediterranean is not rich enough to support everyone but is rich enough that people are willing to fight over it. That makes sense to me. Giving Israel what it said it wanted (a country of its own) has not produced peace in the region at all after roughly 65 years. If we insist on meddling in that region, we must change our strategy.

“I think I need to distinguish between growth in ‘the economy’ versus growth in jobs. One measure of the economy is productivity, but productivity has grown enormously without parallel growth in jobs because of a variety of technology changes. If manufacturers can produce the same amount of products (or more) with less labor, the economy appears to grow even while jobs are lost. The whole premise of using updated technology, in most cases, is to reduce the use of labor. That happens across all sectors, too, in services and extractive sectors as well as manufacturing. Productivity has risen greatly in office work (think computers versus typewriters), mining, farming, and even restaurants. That is the result of automation, not rises in employment. Indeed farming and mining employment has dropped further than manufacturing. What sector or type of employment do you see increasing enough to balance those out?”

 . . . my response to round two:

Calvin,

            Re: Brennan.  OK, if we can dismiss Brennan, then we must fire Feinstein as well.  She was more directly involved in the data breach than Brennan.  While the message needs to be clear, the CIA cannot violate the law, the same message must be sent to Congress.

            Re: Palestine.  Using that logic, we can go back 65M years when pre-homonids banded together in tribes.  History is history and cannot be changed.  Thus, as you say, the policy or strategy must change.  To my current thinking that paradigm shift is the United States standing with the majority of the international community as it did in 1947, to approve and clear the State of Palestine on the West Bank.  The Palestinians deserve the same respect as the Jews did after World War II.

            Re: jobs.  Great Britain had to make the difficult transition from the labor dependent manufacturing of the Industrial Revolution to predominately a service-oriented economy.  You ask: “What sector or type of employment do you see increasing enough to balance those out?”  IMHO, we must make the same transition.  Machines will continue to replace human labor for a host of reasons.  Thus, technology service jobs are clearly that growth sector.  Think about our automobiles.  I used to do all routine maintenance on my first automobile.  Today, virtually everything in the cars today are managed by computers and required technical expertise and equipment to maintain them – beyond my capacity.  Health care is another sector of perpetual growth . . . at least until we produce intelligent automatons to replace human nurses and doctors. 

            Just a related FYI: the jobs discussion reminds me I really need to get started on writing the 3^rd book of my Anod series . . . she returns to Earth where she learns of human evolution on the Homeplanet.

Round three:

“Feinstein was at least attempting to exercise authority over the CIA. The CIA has no such argument. They are at the agency level of government; the Senate is the highest level of our government. One thing that must happen to get the USA back on track is that someone must succeed in limiting the spy community.

“My point was and is that Palestine has been an impossible place to keep the peace as far back as records go, unlike much of the globe. We waste our own resources trying to keep them from killing one another. If we grant the Palestinians a state within easy air attack of Israel, then Israel has a reason to continue the conflict. If we do not, the Palestinians have a reason to continue the conflict. We cannot bring peace to this region.

“Technology service jobs are a growth sector for the present, but not on a scale to replace the manufacturing jobs they eliminate. This does not compare to the Industrial Revolution, which created more jobs in manufacturing than it eliminated in agriculture. The technology is created for the purpose of removing jobs from the process, and it succeeds in that. The medical sector will grow until the Baby Boomers (that's us!) move through our life cycles. Succeeding generations have not continued the population growth that brought about so many changes designed to accommodate us. By arithmetic, the demand for medical people will drop even if technology does not replace people in that sector.”

 . . . my response to round three:

            Re: CIA v. Senate.  The CIA is an agency of the Executive Branch.  It is not subservient to the Legislative Branch.  Staffers of the Senate Intelligence Committee do NOT have some unbounded authority to access, copy or take documents at will.  Yes, Congress has a responsibility to monitor and oversee Executive Branch agencies, but there are rules and procedures to be followed on both sides.  This separation of powers confrontation began in 2001, when the Bush 43 administration authorized the use of Enhanced Interrogation Techniques (EIT) [416] in the prosecution of the War on Islamic Fascism.  We have discussed this issue repeatedly.  We have even reviewed a number of memoranda generated by the Justice Department Office of Legal Counsel [548] regarding the legal basis for the employment of EIT in the performance of the President’s authority to wage war successfully.  DCI Brennan publicly apologized for the actions of CIA agents.  Now, I want to see an apology from Senator Feinstein for the failure of her staffers to play by the rules.  Congress is not a unilateral authority.

            Re: Palestine.  Part of the problem in the Palestinian situation hangs upon the legal basis for the area.  UN General Assembly Resolution 181 partitioned the British Mandate of Palestine [1947] into Jewish and Arab areas.  The British withdrew [1948].  Israel established governance over their areas.  Neighboring Arab states repeatedly attacked Israel, most significantly the Six Day War [1967] when Israel gained control of the whole region.  Over the years, the Israelis have authorized autonomous regions for the Palestinian Authority.  Unfortunately, the Palestinians will not gain the necessary recognition short of statehood.  The situation has progressed on the West Bank as the Palestinians finally began to effect governance over their areas.  However, the seizure of control by Hamas in Gaza has created an unacceptable position for Israel, for reasons we have just witnessed.  It is this basis by which I advocate for statehood for Palestine at least in the West Bank, to establish the legal basis for the Palestinian people and to further isolate Hamas. 

            Re: jobs.  We are trying to predict the future.  I have offered my opinion.  To return to labor-intensive manufacturing is not reasonable in my humble opinion.  Creating more labor-intensive jobs appears to be a non-starter.  We can also discuss population growth control.  The process of transition from labor-intensive manufacturing to service-oriented has been underway for some time and we have a long way to go.

  “That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”

Cheers,

Cap

Round four:

“The CIA is an agency of the Executive Branch, not the guiding authority of the Executive Branch. That is an important distinction and one that tends to be ignored by the spy community. The point remains that the CIA and other spy agencies need to be under control of a higher authority, and the Executive Branch shows no sign of reining them in under either Republican or Democrat Presidents. As far as those Justice Department legal opinions, they carry a certain weight by virtue of their source but few reputable attorneys believe they are a final word on any given subject. And no, at this period in history the Justice Department is not necessarily reputable. Think Alberto Gonzales. Eric Holder has his own failings, as you know.

“Peace or war in the Middle East has never been simply a legal issue. If we set up a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Israel will continue to feel threatened by its proximity. They will have historical justification for that. If we do not set up such a state, the Palestinians will continue to claim oppression by Israel, also with historical justification. No solution to this paradox is in sight. Legal issues abound, but they are the trees that hide the forest.

“We will not return to a manufacturing economy as far as jobs are concerned, and jobs will decline in the parts of the world to which they have been exported as the relative cost of technology declines. I do not support any attempt to go backward. However, I believe that society must adapt to being unable to provide jobs for all who want to work. Population growth is already under control in the developed world and in China, and is a factor in higher average population ages especially in Japan. I researched that one a couple of years ago in college. However, that does not address actual decline in the number of jobs. I hope European nations or Japan will find a constructive way to address this. The U.S. has fallen so far behind in social progress that we are not a likely candidate.”

 . . . my response to round four:

            Re: CIA.  Agreed, the CIA is not an extra-governmental agency.  Likewise, Congress and the Executive do not have the authority to go rummaging through the other’s documents willy-nilly.  The proper path to settle disputes between the Legislative and Executive Branches is via the Judiciary; neither accessed that constitutional path, as yet.

            Re: Palestine.  My life experience tells me people are all the same all over the world; they want to live a peaceful life, to be respected, and for their children to grow up to have a better life than them.  Unfortunately, governments and religion create conflict and feed the violence for reasons quite akin to megalomania.  The Gaza Palestinian people would have a far better life if they lived in peace as a good neighbor to Israel.  Hamas is an obstacle to that peace, and as time goes on, Jewish right-wingers are growing in that regard.  That is why I think it is time for the United Nations and the international community to at least place the Palestinians on a comparable footing by recognizing the State of Palestine.

            Re: jobs.  Universal employment . . . interesting concept.  As with all things, the key is balance.   Intellectually, I would like every human being to be self-sufficient, live in peace, and be respected as they respect their neighbors.  Unfortunately, people procreate and often exceed the capacity of their land to sustain their lives.  Then, we feel compelled to intervene and disturb the natural course of things.  I understand, appreciate and broadly support the notion you present . . . well except for the U.S. has fallen part; however, there are very real and profound limits to the capacity of this Grand Republic and the European Union.  Procreation beyond the capacity of the land to sustain that local population is not healthy for anyone, including Americans and Europeans.  Add in rabid ideologies and we have a volatile and violent concoction.

  As always, “That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”

Cheers,

Cap

Round five:

“As far as Palestine, you are surely right that the ordinary people would prefer to live their lives, If one could find a typical Palestinian or Israeli family and bring them next door to one of us, chances are we would find them to be good neighbors. All the same, leadership can and does become entrenched and battle-hardened for generations. The other example that comes to mind is Northern Ireland. In very much the same mode, the Israel/Palestine area will not see peace until one side is finally and brutally defeated.

“I am not sure why you discuss the capacity of the land to support people in the context we have here. The U.S.A.'s population has given up catastrophic growth, as has much of the advanced world. That is a discussion for another thread.

“What I brought up is the capacity of society to support people by job creation in a situation where work is increasingly done by sophisticated machinery. The issue at hand is that people are replaced by machinery, which does their work cheaper and more precisely, without paid time off, burnout, or complaints about working conditions. That is irresistible to corporations, as it should be. It makes money for their owners. Society as a whole is left with great production capacity but with excess workers who cannot consume much and who are after all humans in trouble through no fault of their own. (The notion that poverty and other human ills are people's own choices is already refuted; see above.) How does a capitalist society deal with that when no sectors are creating a balancing number of jobs?”

 . . . my response to round five:

            Re: Palestine.  OMG, I truly hope it does not come to that . . . “brutally defeated.”  As I said earlier, this is quite like addiction.  The breakthrough might well come when both sides genuinely want peace at the same time.  When both reach their bottom at the same time, we might actually reach peace.  The other option as I suggested earlier, the United States should sponsor a revision to UN Resolution 181 to establish the State of Palestine on the West Bank, and concomitantly call for elections in Gaza supervised by the UN to determine whether the Gaza Palestinians want to retain Hamas and remain isolated, or abandon Hamas for the Palestinian Authority and the new government of Palestine.  The least we can do is put the Palestinians on an equal footing with Israel.  A new set of rules will come to play.

            Re: population.  My comment was not meant for the United States; we have been net agricultural exporters for many decades and that is not likely to change soon.  My point was meant more for 3rd world countries like Somalia, Sudan, Guatemala, Honduras, et cetera.

            Re: jobs & machines.  Spot on, which is why I say, someone needs to take care of the machines – technical experts.  My point is, workers must transition to the jobs that are needed.  Manual laborers are just not needed in as great of numbers as a century ago.  A single backhoe does the work of scores of ditch diggers, but someone must maintain the backhoe.  Balancing the number of jobs is neither the responsibility of corporations or even society.  Yes, government can and should offer a transition helping hand to stimulate company training or some such to assist the transition.  In recessions / depressions, governments can and should offer public employment for the public good; but, that must end.  Expanding government is not a stable state, IMHO.

Round six:

“On the Israeli/Palestinian issue, all I have left to say is ‘good luck.’ On occasion history does not repeat itself, but the rarity of that is why social progress is best measured on timelines measured in centuries.

“I will leave the less developed world alone for now in our discussion of jobs. Their progression resembles ours with later dates.

“There is an issue in your analogy of the backhoe replacing by-hand ditch diggers. What if it's not just blue-collar jobs? Let us say your backhoe is invented and an operator and a helper replace about ten ditch diggers. In the past, those eight people could go into factory work, learn to operate more backhoes, or in recent times go into information technology. The issue with all that is that the total number of jobs is shrinking. It's not just that the jobs are in different fields. There are no jobs.

“For a clearer example, consider amazon.com. Amazon provides far fewer people with work than a traditional store chain but sells around $75 billion in merchandise a year. This idles not just sales clerks but managers, store maintenance people, local and national advertising workers, and others on an international scale. Those eight ditch diggers are not going there for the next job. Similar cost savings via technological improvement abound. By-hand bookkeeping and secretarial work vanished in the 1980s and 1990s. Coal mining is automated and employs roughly 5,000 workers today compared to 50,000 a few decades back. The whole reason for using the technology is to eliminate jobs. Workers operating and maintaining the machines are far fewer than those they replace. Re-training is not an answer when there is no kind of work hiring. This will produce fundamental changes in society one way or another.”

 . . . my response to round six:

            Re: Palestine.  Indeed.  The status quo is just not stable.

            Re: jobs.  I’m not sure the total number is shrinking.  Nonetheless, let us assume the total number of jobs is shrinking.  My earlier point was, producing more unemployed is not helpful.  I suppose at this point we enter the realm of hypothetical and science fiction.  My image of Earth and human society five centuries hence; machines do the work; humans are maintained as a gene pool; procreation controlled by the State for a zero sum gain within a fixed environment.  That book is not written, yet, but I am thinking about the extension of the issue / question.

            Related: the publishing world is going through this exact transition now.  The traditional print publishers want to price eBooks at print prices to maintain their revenue stream even though the expense differential between print and electronic versions is large and significant.  Print publishers like brick & mortar bookstores, like ditch digging companies, are struggling with the transition from the physical to the virtual.  As you say, the change is inevitable; how we handle the changes is critical.

Round seven:

“The status quo in Palestine only appears unstable. The real, underlying status quo is unending conflict. In most armed conflicts one or both sides conclude that any peace is preferable to continued war. We have yet to see that between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

“The rate of ‘normal’ unemployment seems to rise over time, from 3-4% when I took my first economics class in 1990 to 5% in the late 1990s to, by some economists, 7% now. This is not hypothetical. Five centuries hence is not the time frame to consider in a current-events blog if your hypothesis is beginning to happen now. The question for now is: if value is not produced by humans but by machines, what happens to the humans? If machines do all the work, capitalism fails the majority of the people.”

 . . . my response to round seven:

            Re: Palestine.  Conflict is by definition not stable.  Short of total defeat, e.g., Germany and Japan [1945], peace is only possible when both sides truly want peace . . . rather than peace on their terms.  If there is to be a negotiated peace, both sides must compromise and neither side will get everything they want.

            Re: man v. machine.  My hypothesis is science fiction, not a solution.  It is simply my imagination of what might evolve from this transition.  My imagining is a plausible outcome, but it is NOT a plan for an orderly process.  We clearly cannot abandon human beings.  We can and must solve the transition problem.

Round eight:

“You pinpointed the reason the conflict in Israel and Palestine is in fact stable. "If there is to be a negotiated peace, both sides must compromise and neither side will get everything they want." Not only have both sides been willing to compromise at the same time, but ordinarily neither side has the least interest in compromise.

“I share the belief that we must not abandon human beings in pursuit of profit. The problem is that capitalism does not allow for that.”

 . . . my response to round eight:

            Re: Palestine.  Then, we shall likely have aperiodic and persistent conflict in the region.  I wonder when the United States will reach its limit of tolerance?

            Capitalism is about free commerce and the profit motive.  It is not and never has been concerned about social welfare beyond ensuring a productive labor force.  Government has always held the responsibility for the safety, well being, and good order & discipline within the society it governs, i.e., the public good.  Supervising the transition from man to machine labor rests with government not corporations.

Another contribution:

“This op-ed from Haaretz, a leading Israeli daily, will tell you what the present Israeli govt feels about the two-state solution.  What a mess….”

“There'll be more Gazas without a two-state solution – The Gaza tragedies are the most acute symptoms of the despair resulting from the failure of the peace process, but Netanyahu doesn't learn the lesson of history - occupiers always lose in the end.”

by Stephen Robert

Haaretz

Published: Aug. 3, 2014 | 12:03 AM |  2

http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.608673

 . . . my reply:

            Thx for the Haaretz article.

            The British, the United Nations, or the international community did not seek Palestinian Arab approval from the Balfour Declaration, to H.J.Res.73 [42 Stat. 1012], to UN General Assembly Resolution 181, for the partitioning of Palestine [Arab neighboring states voted against Resolution 181, but they had insufficient votes to reject it].  I think Israel knows there has to be a Palestinian State for there to be peace.  They have first hand proof in the conduct of the Fatah and the Palestinian Authority.  While there have been protests and such in the West Bank, to my knowledge, there have been no attacks or violence emanating from the Fatah area.  Frankly, I think the United States should initiate another General Assembly Resolution to declare and approve the State of Palestine in the West Bank.  I suspect when it was done, Hamas would find its support among the Gaza Palestinians evaporate in short order.  The two state solution is the only solution.  The status quo is not and never has been stable.  I have not seen a valid explanation why right-wing Israelis are so dead-set against a Palestinian State.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)