Update no.1119

 Update from the Sunland

No.1119

19.6.23 – 25.6.23

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

 

To all,

 

OceanGate, Inc., is (or may soon be referred to in the past tense) a U.S. company based in Everett, Washington, that advertises itself as providing crewed submersibles for tourism, industry research, and exploration. Recent events began a week ago Sunday and culminated this week. The OceanGate, deep-sea submersible Titan began a mission to the wreckage of RMS Titanic resting on the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean at a depth of 12,500 feet (pressure depth of roughly 370 atmospheres). The design of the Titan stepped away from conventional deep-sea submersible design practice in that it utilized a carbon fiber pressure hull with hemispherical titanium endcaps. Passengers were literally bolted into the vessel with no internal means of emergency egress. The available public information suggests the vessel catastrophically imploded circa 1:45 into the dive on Sunday morning, which would have put them near the ocean floor. Debris clearly from the Titan vessel has been found on the ocean floor approximately 1,600 feet from the bow of the Titanic. 

Those who are familiar with carbon composite technology know that carbon fiber matrix constructions are exceptionally strong in tension but not so much in compression.  I agree with James Cameron, the Titan application, i.e., pressure hull cylinder, was an inappropriate utilization as an external pressure vessel. The system was exposed to repeated very high-pressure applications, and no one knew what the durability of the structure would be, i.e., how many pressure cycles would the structure withstand. In comparison, aircraft are physically tested to flight load profiles equivalent to several lifetimes of stress. Such endurance testing was not performed on the Titan structure.

If there is a positive side to this tragedy, the five men inside the vessel died instantly. The collapse probably came without warning and happened in a fraction of a millisecond. I suspect there will be some, perhaps not the least being the governments of Canada and the United States, that will soon seek to end the operation of non-standard, insufficiently tested, experimental systems carrying commercial customers. The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) have both opened formal investigations into the Titan event.

 

We, the People, can still be pleasantly surprised when the system works.

On 6.April.2021, the Arkansas legislature overrode Governor Hutchinson’s veto of a controversial bill, enacting it into law. The law in question was House Bill 1570, titled: Arkansas Save Adolescents from Experimentation (SAFE) Act, codified at Arkansas Code Annotated §§ 20-9-1501 to 20-9-1504 and 23-79-164 (AKA Act 626). The law prohibits gender-affirming medical care for adolescents diagnosed with gender dysphoria. Several affected then-adolescents with their parents filed suit claiming the law violated their constitutional rights under the First Amendment and the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection and Due Process Clauses.

United States District Court Judge James ‘Jay’ Maxwell Moody Jr. issued his ruling in the case of Brandt v. Rutledge [USDC AR ED CDiv Case 4:21-cv-00450-JM (2023)]. Footnote 2 set the tone for the entire 80-page order, “The Arkansas Legislature titled the Act as ‘Arkansas Save Adolescents from Experimentation (Safe) Act.’ Because the title is misleading, the Court will refer to the Act as ‘Act 626’ in this order.” Judge Moody went onto eviscerate the law as failing to serve its stated purpose and harming those it was purported to protect, i.e., children affected by gender dysphoria. The State utilized an interesting circular argument . . . let’s ban a medical procedure because we don’t know enough about the long-term effects—an action that virtually guarantees we will not learn, and affected children will suffer.

The judge also informed me about three important organizations intended to help gender dysphoric children:

-- World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH) 

-- Endocrine Society

-- Arkansas Children’s Hospital (ACH) Gender Clinic

Each organization has guidelines, standards, and protocols for treating gender dysphoria in children. The judge enjoined the state to cease and desist any enforcement of the Act 626 law, which means the law is irrelevant and medical practitioners are free to provide medical services in the best interest of their patients.

The Brandt order is a prime example of the former GOP, now fBICP, MAGA bunch, and their far-right evangelical supporters have become the political party of ignorance over knowledge. Act 626 is the consummate example of why I have arrived at that conclusion. Brandt is the epitome of ignorance over knowledge. Fortunately for all of us, Judge Moody stood up to ignorance. We are grateful that the system worked.

I imagine the hard right will insist that the state appeal the district judge’s order. I expect the 8^th Circuit Court of Appeals and the U.S. Supreme Court (if the appeal makes it that far) will reject the appeal and affirm Judge Moody’s order.

 

Most of us, if not all of us, have undoubtedly seen and heard of the happenings in Rostov Oblast, the Russian province on the eastern border with Ukraine, and specifically in the capital of Rostov Oblast—Rostov-on-Don. Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch, one time friend and confident of Putin, and founder & leader of the infamous Wagner Group, announced and showed the world that the Wagner Group had apparently entered into open rebellion against the Putin government. Armed units of the Wagner Group including main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers had taken over and occupied Rostov-on-Don. They occupied the headquarters of the Southern Federal District of Russia and other government facilities in Rostov. Prigozhin had voiced his distinct and strong disagreement with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General of the Army Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov over many years. His insurrection demanded a meeting and reform of the military. The Wagner leader had many gripes about the incompetence wasteful ineptitude of the two Russian leaders. He specifically did not criticize Putin. Prigozhin claimed his effort was not a coup d’état (perhaps not yet, but it surely looks like the beginning of such an insurrection). He called his conflict a “March for Justice.” Prigozhin ordered his armed troops to march on Moscow for the meeting he demanded. The Russian government ordered the main from Rostov to Moscow seriously torn up to slow down the Wagner advance on the capital. Then, as quickly as the insurrection burst into public awareness, the action dissipated even more quickly when Prigozhin was offered no prosecution and asylum in Belarus. I cannot imagine that Prigozhin feels safety in Belarus, but that deal was sufficient for him to call off the march north to Moscow and order an end to the rebellion.

I am feeling very prescient in this situation. I can see Prigozhin mysteriously falling to his death out of a six-story window or balcony somewhere in Belarus within 12 months. I suspect the FSB and GRU will take their vengeance in the name of Putin on those they can identify as having participated in the March for Justice. There will be no justice—only death. The Wagner Group will be disbanded, and the surviving troops will be dispersed among frontline units to serve as cannon fodder.

Just an FYI sort of observation, I suspect it was the Wagner Group that provided the anonymous “little green men” who invaded the Donbass in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. The group’s mercenary armed forces have been and still are being employed in multiple international locations, reportedly 23 conflict sites.

The Prigozhin insurrection tells us far more about Putin and his regime than it does about the mercenary oligarch. From everything I have seen and read over the last 18 months, Putin and the far-right nationalists supporting him are using Ukraine as a catalyst threat of their own making to hold onto power. After all, it is what fascist dictators do; they need a boogeyman. I think the Russian people will see the Prigozhin insurrection for exactly what it was—an attempt to shine a bright light on a very weak and incompetent dictatorship. What the Russian people do with the information is yet to be seen. Putin may not be long for this world.

 

Comments and contributions from Update no.1118:

Comment to the Blog:

“Tiny himself remains unworthy of my energy. The judge, as of now, is one Tiny appointed who has extremely little trial experience and a history of favoring him.

“We’re familiar with the MAGAts. Many people won’t vote unless they’re offered better candidates than Biden.

“The Electoral College makes manipulation easier. Scoundrels need only focus on enough of the backward states to thwart the more advanced majority. Hence, Trump and W.”

My response to the Blog:

True and agreed. However, as long as he remains a negative influence over millions of American citizens, I cannot ignore him. I tried that in 2016; I seriously underestimated the gullibility of so many citizens back then. I refuse to do the same now.

Your assessment of Judge Aileen Cannon is spot on correct, and her judicial supervision of this case must be closely watched.

“MAGAts” = nice imagery in that one.

“People won’t vote” . . . well then, the reelection of Tiny moves all the closer to reality. Voter suppression is exactly what the fBICP wants and needs. Their believers vote no matter what. So, perhaps we should prepare for another quasi-administration of [the person who shall no longer be named] and even a presidential administration with ihr Anführer in prison. And so it goes. We shall deal with what comes. The next go-around (if it happens) will be far worse than the first episode; he will feel zero restraints in his drive to be a dictator.

The fBICP (former GOP) know the rules, and they can and will use the rules to their advantage as we allow them to do. We can poo-poo the rules as not to our liking, and then we must accept the fBICP taking over the White House, both chambers of Congress, and loading the Judiciary with their believers. I am only one vote among millions. Voting is a choice (although I believe voting is an obligation of citizenship). I must accept and deal with what comes. I will do so as long as I am able.

 . . . Round two:

“It’s good to discuss voter suppression, but that’s not what I talked about. Voter apathy probably costs the Democrats even more votes than it does the Republicans, and apathy’s the biggest reason so many who could vote don’t bother. Many of those who would otherwise vote for Democrats have lost their faith that Democrats would actually carry out the policies they campaign for. That goes straight back to the Clinton Administration.

“I’ll note here that the Democrats have made little to no effort to change the rules the Republicans abuse. Others have also noticed that.”

 . . . my response to round two:

Apathy and complacency are just additional versions of voter suppression. Whether directed, purposeful, governmental Jim Crow suppression or just the paucity of inspiration, the result is the same. By any mechanism or process, not voting abdicates decisions to those who do vote. I have chosen not to join any political party for a host of reasons, which means, among other things, that I do not get to select the candidates. I must decide who is the best of the candidates presented in the general election. My message has remained the same for decades. My only claim to success is our children and of-age grandchildren fulfill their obligation to vote. In our circumstances, my greatest concern today with voter suppression in all of its myriad forms may well yield a far worse and more destructive result than 2016. To make momentous societal changes requires a significant progressive majority on the scale of the majorities Franklin Roosevelt enjoyed . . . that means voting for change.

Your criticism of the Democrats is certainly justified. They have missed opportunities. However, I must remind you the Democrats passed and implemented the PPACA [23.3.2010], which is the closest we have yet come to universal health care. The Republicans have relentlessly attacked the PPACA, chiseled away elements of the law, but the law and process still stand to this day.

 . . . Round three:

“Apathy and complacency result from negative campaigning and from loss of faith both in the parties and in one's vote actually counting. Both of the major parties and the Constitution itself each play a part in that.

“The PPACA is a gift to the insurance industry. Nobody's making a serious effort to replace it with something better.”

 . . . my response to round three:

Perhaps so; your assessment is as good as any. I will note, however, the result and consequences are the same . . . election of the least capable person. We get what we vote for. And so it goes.

Yes, it was . . . an essential element of the compromise it took to pass the law. Nonetheless, the PPACA was the closest we have yet come to universal health care. You are also quite correct in that the GOP attacked and chiseled away at PPACA, but did absolutely nothing to improve the PPACA or offer a better health care law. I will note here that the Democrats passed the Social Security Act [PL 74-I-271; 49 Stat. 620] [546], Medicare & Medicaid {Social Security Amendments Act of 1965 [PL 89-097; 79 Stat. 286]}, in addition to the PPACA [PL 111-148; 124 Stat. 119]. Let us give credit where credit is due despite the fact that none of the noted laws is perfect. Something is better than nothing. I remain guardedly optimistic that we will find a path to improve and one day achieve universal health care. We will remain distant from that objective if the majority does not vote. ‘Nuf said.

 

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                  :-)