Update no.1053

 Update from the Sunland

No.1053

14.3.22 – 20.3.22

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

 

            To all,

 

Astronomical spring arrived in the northern hemisphere on Sunday with the vernal equinox. Pool time!

 

Most of this week was consumed by a mini-vacay in Sin City—Las Vegas, Nevada. Other than Jeanne’s enjoyment of games of chance, we were there for the celebration of our number 2 granddaughter’s 21^st birthday—her choice of venue. We decided to drive, which took five hours each way. It is always a pleasure to spend time with our family, even just a few members at a time.

 

The follow-up news items:

-- As of 16.March.2022, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) [1036 & sub] has successfully completed the critical mirror alignment procedures for its 18 primary mirror segments. The JWST continues its progress toward certification and scientific operations. The first publicly released image from the JWST was a telescope alignment evaluation image of  star 2MASS J17554042+6551277, which is roughly 2,000 light-years away and well within our own galaxy.

https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap220319.html

We are getting much closer to a fully functional JWST. I eagerly await the new discoveries.

 

This topic opened with a tweet:

From: Nathalie Jacoby:

BREAKING: According to talking points sent to the Russian media, the Kremlin wanted viewers to hear from Fox News’ Tucker Carlson as much as possible because he “sharply criticizes the actions of the United States and NATO.” Do you think Tucker Carlson is a Russian asset?

5:41 PM · Mar 13, 2022

The tweet sparked my curiosity. I eventually tracked down the source.

“Leaked Kremlin Memo to Russian Media: It Is ‘Essential’ to Feature Tucker Carlson – The Russian government has pressed outlets to highlight the Fox host’s Putin-helping broadcasts.”

by David Corn, Washington, DC, Bureau Chief

Mother Jones

Published: MARCH 13, 2022

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/exclusive-kremlin-putin-russia-ukraine-war-memo-tucker-carlson-fox/

The article shows two images of the original leaked memorandum. The article claims it cannot show more in order to protect their source. All of that is entirely plausible. However, when we are relegated to a single source that cannot be validated, we are placed in a ‘trust me’ situation. My efforts to corroborate the information left me disappointed. The politics of Mother Jones have been well known since its creation in February 1976, which in turn makes me read every article with a heavy dose of skepticism. Nonetheless, I have listened to Tucker Carlson enough times in recent months and years to recognize that there were more than a few threads to the accusations. So, I swallowed my pride and went looking for video clips of Carlson’s recent broadcasts—not an easy trick, I must say. This one seems quite indicative of a stimulant that induced the accusations noted above. 

“Tucker Carlson: What does Joe Biden's 'Russia is Bad' class teach? – It was wrong about Russia attacking Ukraine on February 16 - what else is it wrong about?”

Opinion by Tucker Carlson

Fox News

Published February 17, 2022; 10:56pm EST

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-joe-biden-russia-bad

I started this week writing about Carlson’s February 17^th broadcast, but as I accumulated more and more similar broadcasts I had to change direction. The more I saw and listened to, the angrier I became. I will note, relative to the 17^th broadcast, two relevant historic dates: 1.) 21.February.2022, by the stroke of his pen, Putin declared the two provinces of the Donbass region in Eastern Ukraine were now independent states, and sent in the Russian Army to augment the “little green men” (present since 2014) to “protect the peace.” [1050]; and, 2.) 24.February.2022, the Russian military executed Putin’s orders and launched a broad, general invasion of Ukraine in the pre-dawn hours, crossing the border from multiple sites, north, east & south. [1050] Now, on Carlson’s side, he has never served a day in the military and definitely never seen combat, so it is understandable that he is woefully ignorant of military affairs. Of all the articles I have read related to this topic, the following item summarizes my opinion the best.

“Putin’s Goons Say Tucker Carlson Is Must-See TV – The Kremlin has told state-run TV to air Carlson’s pro-Russia talking points as much as possible.”

by Bess Levin

Vanity Fair

Published: MARCH 14, 2022

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/tucker-carlson-kremlin-russia-tv

On the very day that Putin’s War jumped into a much higher level, Carlson broadcast this rather stilted opinion piece:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6298658159001#sp=show-clips

I could go on and on with Carlson’s vitriol, but this is too much already, even for me. But, it is important to understand the mouthpiece that feeds fBICP ridiculousness. My question for Carlson is, where do you propose we draw the line? Is Ukraine’s sovereignty irrelevant. Apparently to Carlson, it is; he implicitly subscribes to Putin’s ‘Ukraine has always been part of Russia’ nonsense. Odd that the Ukrainians do not and never have believed that notion. He is absolutely wrong! Millions of people believe him. 

My summary opinion, for what it is worth, it is not so much what he says but how he says it that is dreadfully close to treason if we were in a declared war with Russia. But, we are not in a declared war, and Carlson’s speech and opinions are protected by the 1^st Amendment. Regardless of his rights, I adamantly disagree with and condemn Carlson’s persistent affinity for Putin and Russia, and his degradation of Zelensky and Ukraine. At the end of the day, I resoundingly condemn Carlson and his ill-informed, misaligned, jaundiced views of Putin and Zelensky. Putin is not Russia, but Zelensky sure seems to accurately represent Ukraine. I stand with Ukraine and Zelensky.

 

In recent months, I have become progressively more irritated and angrier with former Democratic Party presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii [1045]. She released a video hosted on YouTube about Ukrainian biological laboratories.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1qBhJYoqUs

I do not dispute any of the facts she presented in her video soliloquy.  To my knowledge the facts are accurate. What really jerks my chain taut is her total lack of understanding or appreciation of the significance. By her words, she laid out a roadmap for the dictator Putin to carry out a false flag operation that could allow him to introduce biological weapons in his war on Ukraine. There is zero doubt in my little pea brain that Ukraine is doing everything humanly possible to secure their nuclear and biological facilities. She further ignores the hard reality that Putin’s Russia executed an unprovoked, aggressive, military attack on a neighboring sovereign nation. It is Putin who is threatening those facilities—not Ukraine, not the United States, not the EU, not NATO; only Putin. The sheer ignorance of her statement is mind-boggling. Does she trust Putin to secure those facilities? What does she recommend we, the collective we, do about those facilities? Is she advocating for the U.S. and NATO to declare war on Russia to defend and secure those facilities? Tulsi Gabbard’s message was factually correct and absolutely irresponsible.

 

            Comments and contributions from Update no.1052:

Comment to the Blog:

“Supposedly Putin believed US assurances that NATO wouldn’t expand without that being included in treaties. That’s silly and I don’t believe it.

“The New York Times Morning column today includes a brief biography of Ukraine’s Zelensky. He seems to be a politician who acts on ideals. Nobody knows how to deal with that.

“That opinion on assassinating Putin is morally acceptable only to spies. Also, remember that Putin is still popular inside Russia. His successor would enjoy even more support.

“There is no reason to believe Putin wouldn’t go nuclear in the event of ‘full mobilization’ and its consequences. Removing Russia from the UN Security Council is a much better idea, but the notion of saving Ukraine without military intervention is a fantasy.

“Another comment reminded me how much more welcoming Europe is of these refugees than they ever were of those from the Middle East and Africa fleeing similar circumstances.”

My response to the Blog:

Putin apparently sees NATO as just another dictatorial organization that can prescribe to other sovereign nations. He refuses to recognize that Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has the right and free will to choose who they wish to associate with. Stalin did not give a hoot about the wishes of his neighbors and the “liberated” nations of Eastern Europe; he felt he earned the right by blood to dictate to anyone. Putin is following Stalin’s lead and playbook. He has no right whatsoever to demand Ukraine not join EU/NATO, or try to intimidate NATO into rejecting Ukraine’s application. As I have written previously, Putin’s War is Exhibit no.1 in Ukraine’s application for EU and NATO membership.

Interesting observation with respect to Zelensky. I think most folks including Putin seriously underestimated Zelensky in serving as a wartime leader of his country and the resistance of the Ukraine Army and citizenry.

I do not think Putin enjoys as much support as he would like us to believe. It is not our task to perform anyway.

Perhaps you are correct, only time will tell the tale. Ukraine is not Chechnya.

Another good and accurate observation, it seems to me. There are historic reasons for that, but history does not alter reality.

 

Another contribution:

“Why don't we offer volunteer pilots to take a suspended commission , or whatever we did in early days of WWII when Flying Tigers flew over Burma and Americans flew for Great Britain before we were in a declared war against Germany and Japan, so the aircraft we give Ukraine would have experienced pilots, volunteers and not our military.

“I understand these WWII pilots did not suffer a break in service when they returned to US service during the war that eventually came.”

My reply:

The notion is not without precedent. Americans flew in China, France and Great Britain before the U.S. declared war in either theater. Yes, the USG credited all of those pilots with service for their tenure in foreign air forces. The Soviets did exactly the same thing in the DPRK and the DRV.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“Again, why not now , for the beleaguered Ukrainians ? if any of your readers know, I hope they will chime in. I hate to think our Defense Department is so void of students of history that no one has advanced this idea to the top. I bet an inquiry on social media (I am among the .0001% of the world population NOT on any such ) would produce evidence of a willing number of volunteers, if not identify them). So far, Putin has used his nuclear weapons to successfully threaten us into paralysis.”

 . . . my follow-up reply:

Excellent point. Why not now? Yes, I suspect there would be plenty of volunteers. I have not heard anything about the Ukrainian pilots. Comparable case in point, the British had exceptional pilots in 1939, just not enough of them. Pilots from all the Western European countries overrun by the Germans joined the RAF as well as many of the Commonwealth countries. Seven Americans flew in the Battle of Britain. Others joined rapidly after that and transition to the Eagle Squadrons and eventually the USAAF 4th Fighter Group. Ukraine is not Great Britain, but there are similarities. Ukraine is probably more akin to China in 1941.

Yes, Putin has largely been successful in paralyzing the West with his nuclear weapons. From my perspective, I think it is another mistake President Biden is making. He should have never taken nuclear weapons off the table, period. I doubt Putin is that stupid or deranged launch on the U.S. or NATO, but he might on Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have demonstrated remarkable restraint in not taking the fight to the Russians. And it seems to me that Zelensky has conducted a master class on the use of media in wartime. Putin is looking more and more like just another feckless dictator. Sadly, Putin’s “if I can’t have it, I’ll blast it into rubble” policy may well earn him a seat in the dock at the International Criminal Court.

 

A different contribution:

“You are correct, ‘discount’ was not the correct word for what I wanted to convey. My intent was to say that very little of his speech was meant for us to believe, it was aimed at the domestic audience. The only words of Putin that  he wanted us to pay attention was his apparent disregard for common sense and his willingness to use the word ‘nuclear.’ He succeeded in getting many to doubt his mental stability and scared many western politicians from being leaders. Putin is not insane, he expected the West to avoid direct confrontation at almost any cost.

“His only error was his reliance on 25 years of military spending to have given him some comparison to the old Red Army. I am working on an article outlining a couple of unique ideas about why the Russian Army screwed up simple things like joint arms operations and even basic artillery coordination. As I see it, the only Russian military service to have succeeded even in large part was the Navy. The most accurate weapons strikes have been naval including the ten cruise missiles the other night on the far side of the country on the Polish border. The amphibious admixture to the Crimean troops has done their job on the coast. The Air Force has been dropping dumb bombs. 

“The Russian ground troops came into the country using three different grid map series which made some artillery support to armor impossible and requests for air support impossible. Ukraine has three different 10-degree longitude sectors, each of which has different map grids. I was once given a commendation for finding out the Russian missileers in East Germany used a different map grid than their targets in West Germany due to a longitude edge 10 degrees East sitting on the border between East and West. (Their ensuing errors were once-upon-a-time Top Secret Codeword thanks to yours truly.) Ukraine is so big that it has three 10-degree longitude slice edges so the Belarus-based (20-30°), Kursk-based (30-40°) and Rostov-based (40-50°) Russian Army units had different grid maps issued to them. When they had to merge into one campaign inside Ukraine it took them a week to be able to describe the same target. To explain, each longitude section is a huge triangle with a base on the equator stretching to the Pole and at the Equator is the only place where a map grid along the bottom is actually a full square. At 50-degree north latitude half of the triangle has disappeared and the map using square grids overlapping that angled slice have to be extrapolated out across the neighboring longitude triangle. Maps issued in one longitude section do not match maps issued for use in the next one over. Oops, Rostov artillery cannot support Kursk armor and the same for the troops who were earlier training inside the main part of Belarus and moved south directly from that exercise cannot work well toward Kiev that is ‘Beyond the Map Fold’ into the next section east or with the Kursk troops who were also in the eastern section. Big planning oops. I saw it in the errors and some stories told by captured troops. There was a good reason the troops coming down from Belarus on the southeast leading road mysteriously stopped for many days precisely on the 30^th Longitude where the map grids switched.

“Here is an example of the gross errors involved in the opening volleys. The Russian Air Force actually bombed three Belarusian villages instead of the Ukrainian villages farther south.”

“https://uacrisis.org/en/terorystychna-provokatsiya/amp”

My response:

Yeah, and he erroneously expected Ukraine to fall in a few days. Surprise! Unfortunately, President Biden played directly into Putin’s playbook by taking U.S. and Allied reaction off the table, e.g., no direct combat forces, no nuclear weapons, no indirect support that might be interpreted by the dictator Putin as direct combat support, i.e., no fly zone. Those were serious mistakes from my perspective. Biden has gone farther than Roosevelt & Churchill in the “spheres of influence” nonsense they subscribed to with Stalin, but the USG response is woefully inadequate. If the Allies fail to help Ukraine defend itself, then we might as well prepare who what is inevitably coming in Taiwan. Regrettably, President Biden’s “not on the table” declarations have made my recommendation virtually worthless—general mobilization. Putin would see it for what it would be another Allied bluff. The old adage, going back centuries, that the best way to avoid war is to be fully prepared to fight a war remains absolutely true. Imagine if the British and French Armies had mobilized and deployed properly in 1938; yes, it would have cost a great deal of money, but that cost would have been far less than what they ultimately had to pay.

Good summary of the comparatively meager military efforts of the Russian armed forces. Putin’s gross miscalculation in Ukraine has exposed the general weakness and frailty of the Russian armed forces. They have, reportedly, 70% of their conventional combat power involved and committed to the invasion of Ukraine, and they are broadly stymied. The Russian military performance in Ukraine has been mediocre at best, which has caused Putin to resort to the old Russian paradigm—if they won’t give it to you, blast it to rubble and burn it to the ground. Tragically, the Ukrainian people are paying a very heavy human price for Putin’s desperation. He chose a very risky gamble, and I suspect he must have victory to survive.

Once again, you educated me. Thank you for that. I did not know about the mapping differences. Your previous intelligence work has shown its value, again. I never experienced that problem in my military service, and I am glad I did not. You would think the Russians would have known such things long ago. Or, at least, learned from and copied the Ukrainians in operating with the mapping anomalies. It does make me wonder how the NATO and American armed forces would deal with it.

 

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                  :-)