14 December 2020

Update no.987

 Update from the Sunland

No.987

7.12.20 – 13.12.20

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

 

            To all,

 

I watched the test flight of the SpaceX Starship SN8 on Wednesday, 9.December.2020.  After an aborted launch at engine start the previous day, the vehicle lifted off at 16:46 [S] CST.  I understood the flight profile in general; however, it quickly became apparent that I did not know the engine sequences to achieve the profile.  The plan called for the vehicle to climb to roughly 45,000 feet, pitch over for a maximum drag descent back to the launch pad, and use its main engines to arrest its descent and land like SpaceX uses for the first stage return of its Falcon 9 booster.  The vehicle had three Raptor engines.  One engine shut down about halfway into the powered flight, then the second engine.  The last engine was used to pitch the craft over to its descent attitude.  Assuming the engine shutdowns were as planned, the flight appeared to be nominal up to the landing.  All three engines restarted and gimbaled to erect the vehicle to its landing attitude.  One shut down or failed, then another one, and it was hard to tell but it appeared the last engine trust was not sufficient to arrest the descent rate.  The craft broke up upon impact, and the remaining fuel exploded.  If you recall the early flights of the Falcon 9 1st stage booster, they experienced a number of failures.  They learned and improved.  Now, they stick those landings regularly.  They'll learn from this and do better next time.  To me, it appears to have been a very successful flight that did not end as intended, but they will learn.  The engineering and physics of what they accomplished were impressive, nonetheless.

 

On Thursday, 10.December.2020, United Launch Alliance (ULA) launched their Delta IV Heavy rocket with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) NROL-44 satellite, finally.  An attempted launch last August aborted after engine start but before the explosive tie down bolts initiated liftoff.  From my perspective, it was a nominal, successful launch. These launches are always awesome to witness.

 

Also, on Thursday this week, we had cause to celebrate.  For the first time in nine months or so, we had a day of rain, the nice, slow, soaking kind, after 110 days of no precipitation and nine months of anything beyond mist.

 

The annual Army-Navy football game was played at West Point, New York on Saturday, in rather dense fog due to COVID19 exposure concerns.  The Bully-in-Chief (BIC) showed up for the coin toss; we were so honored.  Congratulations go to the Army cadets who commanded the game from start to finish.  Navy lost to Army 0-15.   Navy made far too many mistakes that were exacerbated by a mounting sense of desperation in the 4th quarter.  Army has won four of the last five games.  And so the wheels turn.  We shall look forward with eager anticipation to next years episode.  Go Navy, Beat Army!

 

Wow!  To say the least possible, I am gobsmacked!  When I thought we had reached the bottom for the degeneration of this once grand republic, the BIC Party (BICP) digs very hard and feverishly fast to go deeper and lower than anyone imagined possible.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed suit along with 18 other BICP state attorneys general against Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin to negate the election results in the defendant states—Texas v. Pennsylvania [Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin] [592 U.S. 22O155 (2020)].  The suit claimed the elections in the defendant states were unconstitutional.  Just for thoroughness here, Pennsylvania has a Democrat governor, and Republican Senate and House; Georgia has total Republican control—governor, Senate and House; Michigan has a Democrat governor and Senate with Republican controlled House; and, Wisconsin has a Democrat governor and Republican Senate and House. No one in the executive or legislative of the four defendant states joined the plaintiffs’ suit.  The 19 state attorneys general led by Texas sought to disallow 20 million votes in four other states.  For the record, all 50 secretaries of state including the 19 states that are plaintiffs in the Texas suit certified the results of the 2020 election.  Is this the right hand not talking to the left hand?  Or perhaps, the suit was just window dressing for one person—the BIC.  Then, we had 106 initially and now 126 BICP representatives of the House signed onto support an amicus briefing in support of Texas v. Pennsylvania.  Among those BICP representatives supporting the Texas suit were Representatives:

Joyce, Keller, Kelly, Meuser, Perry, Reschenthaler, and Thompson of Pennsylvania,

Allen, Carter, Ferguson, and Scott of Georgia,

Bergman, Huizenga, Moolenaar, and Walberg of Michigan, and

Tiffany of Wisconsin,

Also among the signatories were Representatives Biggs and Lesko of Arizona (two QAnon believers in our state).

The plaintiffs cited the Constitution, the law and even Federalist no. 68 – “The Mode of Electing the President” (Hamilton) [783 (14.3.1788)]; all of which were correct and spot on the money.  A unanimous Supreme Court, including Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett, summarily dismissed the suit for lack of standing on Friday, 11.December.2020, without hearing arguments.  Justices Alito and Thomas felt compelled to note that they wanted to hear the plaintiffs’ arguments, but would not have granted any other relief.  It was a ridiculous suit from the get-go.  The Supremes put a fork in it.  Of course, the BIC was not pleased.  Unfortunately, since the BIC has no connection with the facts or reality, he will continue his antics.

 

TIME Magazine’s Person of the Year for 2020 is President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris.  That fact alone has to grate deeply on the BIC.  Remember, the BIC is infamous for commissioning and conspicuously displaying a fake TIME Magazine cover with him on it before he ran for president.

 

            Continuing comments from Update no.985:

“Why listen to me ?? There’s tens of millions who say the same thing I do .. most fraudulent election in the history of America !  Proof is everywhere in hearings etc if you bother to listen.”

My reply:

“Why listen to me ??”  Because you are a friend.  Your opinion matters.  I may not agree with you for one or more reasons, but it is important for me to listen and try to understand.

Yes, indeed, I cannot agree that all 74M who voted for the BIC think as you do, but I suspect you are correct; there are probably 10s of millions who do.  That likelihood is significant and must be listened to in our discussions.  I’ve been listening to the BIC and his minions.  I have also read some (I cannot claim many) of the lawsuits.  I’ll repeat my previous statement.  I’ve not seen one scintilla of evidence.  I’ve seen scads of accusations, but not one fact that would stand up under scrutiny in a court of law.  Every single judge in multiple jurisdictions has agreed that there is not even probable cause, set aside beyond a reasonable doubt.  Eventually, the believers will have to face reality—the vaunted BIC lost to an old man.  I believe AG Barr, Chris Krebs, the FBI, and all 50 state secretaries of state (Republican & Democrat).  Let’s get real.  He lost!  It’s time to move on with life.

 . . . follow-up comment:

Sorry but the evidence is being put together.. has to do with Dominion algorithms giving Biden 1.1 for each vote and Trump .8 (don’t have the right ratios in front of me ) thus they kept Biden ahead by 26%.  They have found this in many sample counties. 26%.  This is enough fraud to not only delegitimize the election but send a lot of people to prison .. the mask goes over your nose and mouth, not your eyes Cap.  And there weren’t just a few people voting twice .. try many voting numerous times .. one county had a tremendous amount of votes way higher in numbers even than registered voters .. sloppy, sloppy.

 . . . my follow-up reply:

“mask goes over your nose and mouth, not your eyes Cap.”  Good one.  I didn’t know that, he said with as much sarcasm as he could muster.

Everything you said is hearsay.  Nonetheless, I shall give your opinion the benefit of the doubt.  I eagerly await the hard evidence.  I do agree, if proven in a court of law, then the perpetrators should be and I trust will be punished to the fullest extent of the law.

I find it passingly curious how so many judges have rejected these anecdotal claims.  I also acknowledge that true believers, as you apparently are in this one, are undeterred by the facts, court judgments, and public statements by experts.  QAnon is correct; everyone else is wrong.

Until I see hard evidence tested in a court of law, I shall watch and listen (with my mask below my eyes & ears), and I shall trust the experts until I have reason(s) not to do so.

 

            Comments and contributions from Update no.986:

Comment to the Blog:

“When Bill Barr turned on the Chump, all I could think of was Pinocchio wanting to be a real boy.  Sometimes even the best puppet doesn’t work anymore.

“Perhaps those insisting that others get the vaccine should get it themselves so they don’t have to worry about whether others are carriers.  That’s my plan.”

My response to the Blog:

LOL  Interesting observation.  Thx.  I do not give Barr credit with seeing the light.  I will only say I give him credit for some degree of integrity unlike the fellow he works for in the government.  He should be working for We, the People, but we have witnessed far too much of his bowing to the BIC.

“Insisting” is perhaps too strong of a word.  Encourage is a better word it seems to me.  I am against a vaccine mandate for the most part.  Just an FYI: I advised and encouraged our youngest son to take the anthrax vaccine as a Marine because it was required for the job.  I would not insist that a citizen take the anthrax vaccine; I might encourage a citizen to do so, depending upon circumstances.  I am waiting to see the efficacy and side effects of the COVID19 vaccine before I take it, but I expect to do so as soon as it becomes available to my risk group.  As I wrote, I will defend any citizen’s right to reject a vaccine, but I will also defend governmental restrictions to minimize the threat of any citizen being a carrier-spreader.  Every citizen has a right to decline vaccination, but no citizen has a right to infect other citizens.

 . . . Round two:

“I think you missed the point.  If someone is a carrier but those around them are vaccinated, the carrier still can't spread the virus.”

 . . . my response to round two:

I did not miss the point.  With 40% of our population reportedly being anti-vaxxers, there is a high likelihood 4 in 10 around you will not be vaccinated.  Further, how do you propose we determine whether any particular person has been successfully vaccinated?

 . . . Round three:

“I don't see why I should be concerned about those who refuse the vaccine if I'm protected.”

 . . . my response to round three:

Decent query, actually.  My answer: because they are human beings.  The anti-vaxxers may not have the capacity to protect themselves, but they will remain potential carriers (contagious) to other anti-vaxxers and those not yet vaccinated.  There is little we can do about the anti-vaxxers, but I remain concerned about their health.  Further, infected anti-vaxxers will expect medical treatment and thus take up valuable hospital acute care capacity that may be denied to the rest of us who develop non-COVID19 serious symptoms.

 

Another contribution:

“Cap, your item on Covid is staggeringly worrying.  You live in a modern civilised county, I’m shocked at your article on the deaths and cases of Covid.  Are you progressing with an inoculation as we are?  Worrying, well I have a cousin in Oregon and a damned good writer friend and lady living in the Sunland-stay safe you guys-I’m looking forward to that beer or giving you a sample or two of good Suffolk English beer.”

My reply:

Yes, I know, my friend.  Imagine having to live this.  We have discussed gun violence, race riots, the BIC, and now COVID19 response.  These are the ugly sides of freedom.  People enjoy the right to be stupid . . . as long as their choices do not harm or injury another living creature or property.

No, inoculations have not yet begun here, but they are close (they tell us).  I have not yet seen the priority listing the government will recommend the states utilize, but it is my understanding that frontline health care workers and first responders (EMT, fire, & police) are first, and then over 80yo, elder care, and assisted living residents.  I have no idea how far down the list we will show up.  There may be multiple different vaccines, so I’m not sure what choices we will have.  I suspect the availability will reach us by late winter or early spring.  I have no clear view of when it will be available for our children and grandchildren.  We shall remain vigilant and inquisitive.  I think y’all will be ahead of us.

I hope your cousin remains safe until the vaccine is available.

We’ll get those beers eventually.  We are certainly eager to travel again, but we are not there yet.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“Inoculations started at 0630 GMT here this morning with a 90-year-old plus lady in N. Ireland receiving the first.  Our priority list is much as yours-what the hell, we can all wait can’t we.

“This morning we hear that cases in the London area are rising somewhat rapidly, what can I say?  Do they think because we now have a drug to fight this bug they are protected even before they are jabbed up.  If so then this is a brain dead attitude.”

 . . . my follow-up reply:

Yeah, that event has been on the news over here as well.

Yes, we can and will wait our turn.  After all, we have survived 10 months of this so far.  We can endure for another month or two.

Indeed, but I’m not so sure it’s the brain-dead variant, but rather the arrogantly defiant variety.

 

A different contribution:

“As I’ve always stated about vaccines, if you are vaccinated what are you worried about if you feel the vaccine protects you ?  Don’t bully others into taking it who don’t want to .. if you are vaccinated they are no danger to you or anyone who’s vaccinated.  Only those unvaccinated will supposedly be a threat to each other so stay out of our business of personal choice !!”

My response:

Because I care about my fellow citizens, my friend.  40% of our citizens are anti-vaxxers; that means they will continue to be potential spreaders and many of the anti-vaxxers are in the macho-anti-mask group too.  I still care about them; no one deserves to be infected by this virus, and no one has a right to infect others.

 . . . follow-up contribution:

“And there’s a 99% chance you will survive .. I’ll pass on the vaccine .. will wear the mask as long as they require it.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

As I have accurately stated many times, the issue we face is NOT the mortality rate of the virus.  Your citation is correct; the virus has a very low mortality rate, i.e., an infected person is not likely to perish from COVID19 infection.  Experience tells us the majority of infected people suffer little to no symptoms.  But unfortunately, the morality of the virus is NOT the issue.  The infectiousness or contagiousness of the virus is the factor that is most worrisome, not that it will kill any individual, but that that infected person will unknowingly infect 100s of others, and of those infected, some will develop serious complications requiring ICU treatment.  It is and has always been the saturation of the medical treatment capacity.  As a further FYI: we are literally consuming our doctors and nurses, some of whom have worked 250+ extended hour days straight without a break; we do not allow soldiers to be on the line for that long.  The mortality rate may be comparatively low and yet nearly 300,000 Americans have died from acute respiratory failure.  Let’s focus on the relevant parameters, not the less relevant ones.

 

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                  :-)

2 comments:

Calvin R said...

Good morning, Cap,

I’m glad you finally got rain. That matters a great deal.

We’ve reached the point where sedition is almost a position of the Republican Party. Certainly, those who filed and supported the Texas suit to overturn other states’ laws give the appearance of supporting the dimwit militias that are, in fact, making seditious statements.

Aside from the concerns about anti-vaccination people, the vaccination process should be interesting. The logistical factor of the vaccine requiring transportation and storage at -94 degrees Fahrenheit makes a demand for dry ice and special containers, which has ripple effects. Our government refused to buy enough units of the vaccine, so that makes a potential for shortages. The priorities for vaccinations are controversial, too. Most of all, the decision-makers are ignoring the hot-spots in prisons. That’s irrational. Also, medical people and hot-spots ought to be first, but others with high public contact should be prioritized immediately after hot-spots. Retail workers, for example, should come ahead of the general public, old or not.

There are also other vaccines in the pipeline, some of which may have better bottom-line factors (cost, logistics, etc.) than the Pfizer product. Thus, the refusal to buy enough of the first vaccine for the need could become an advantage if one of the others works better or reduces the time and trouble of distribution.

On the anti-vaccine people: given that they know as much about this as we do, why don’t we let them take their chances? There’s not enough vaccine to go around yet anyhow.

Hoping you get more rain and we get less,

Calvin

Cap Parlier said...

Good morning to you, Calvin,
Thx mate. We keep looking for more rain.

Yes, indeed, which is exactly why I wrote what I did and meant what I said. The Texas suit [592 U.S. 22O155 (2020)] [987] will go down as a very low point in the history of this once grand republic. That suit also graphically displays the enormous distance we must travel to recover from the debacle of the last four years. This episode may be a greater challenge to representative democracy than anything in our past including the Civil War. I hope not, but I can see the potential. We shall overcome.
Agreed as well. The vaccination phase is going to take months to play out and is a monumental logistics effort. I do not agree that the USG “refused to buy enough” vaccine. Last spring, when these orders were placed, the USG fronted extraordinary amounts of money across a half dozen or more developers to prime the pump and hedge their bets. They had absolutely no way to predict which vaccine would be the first or the best, most successful variant, and they were also faced with what they recognized would be enormous demand worldwide. I cannot find fault with the objective and execution of Operation WARP SPEED, and the administration deserves appropriate credit for front-loading the vaccine development process. It will be interesting to see what dynamics evolve with multiple effective vaccines available. There are undoubtedly rough patches ahead before we are done with this virus. Yes, prisons are problematic. But, if we think of this early phase of vaccine deployment as a triage process, I think the USG is making the correct choices, i.e., I think health care frontliners and first responders should be ahead of us. Priority for retail workers does make sense to help get the economy running on all eight-cylinders as soon as possible.

True. You cite some of the dynamic factors that may well play out in this phase of the pandemic. There are other factors as well.

Re: the anti-vaxxers. I don’t think we have a choice. They are going to do what they are going to do regardless of what is logical or reasonable. That is one of the other factors mentioned above. I would be perfectly accepting of their freedom of choice (to decline the vaccine) if their choice was not a threat to the rest of us. If the demographic assessments are correct, 40% of our population (132M people) are anti-vaxxers. If we assume only 20% of those get infected; that’s 26M people. With the current rate of hospitalizations among infected individuals, that yields almost 3M people demanding intense medical treatment; that saturation of the medical capacity would deny treatment for other reasons to the rest of us who did get vaccinated. To me, the choice that results in denial of medical treatment to others is a public treat and thus not acceptable. If the choice of rejecting vaccination had an associated confirmation of rejecting medical treatment for COVID19 symptoms, like a DNR, then I’m good with their freedom of choice. Unfortunately, such filtering criterion is not workable. So we must tolerate the freedom of choice of others threatening our lives. I see this question in very stark terms.

“That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”
Stay safe. Take care and enjoy.
Cheers,
Cap