19 October 2015

Update no.722

Update from the Heartland
No.722
12.10.15 – 18.10.15
To all,

            The follow-up news items:
-- On Tuesday, the Onderzoeksraad Voor Veiligheid (OVV) ["Investigation Council for Safety"; AKA Dutch Safety Board] issued its report titled: “Crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17” dated October 2015, offering the product of their analysis of the downing of the hapless Malaysian Airlines over Eastern Ukraine on 17.July.2014 [657, 665].  The findings are quite conclusive.  The aircraft was shot down by a Russian-made Buk Mk-1 {SA-11} Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) launched from Russian (oh wait, to be politically correct, I should say rebel separatist) held territory of Eastern Ukraine that detonated above the left, forward fuselage outside the pilot’s windscreen, instantly killed all three flight deck crew members, and caused an in-flight break-up of the aircraft.  The OVV produced an excellent trajectory analysis and investigation, especially given the reality that the wreckage was spread over a 25 square mile area in an active combat zone.  The OVV report Figure 50 trajectory analysis depiction is the most demonstrative I have seen in quite some time.  While we know definitively what destroyed the aircraft and killed everyone onboard, we will not likely ever know who pulled the trigger or more importantly who ordered the shoot down of a scheduled commercial aircraft cruising at altitude.
            For those who may be interested in technical details of such events, the OVV produced an excellent animation of their trajectory analysis.  See URL:
            As an ancillary but related side note, the physical evidence provided in the OVV report serves another independent purpose – it essentially disproves the U.S. Navy SM-2 missile strike, friendly fire hypothesis on TWA800 [102 through 661].  The SA-11 and SM-2 missiles are roughly equivalent in capability, size, warhead and lethality.  There was no (zero, none, nada, niente) impact damage on the TWA800 fuselage reconstruction even remotely comparable to the damage seen on the MH17 forward fuselage – classic high-energy penetrations from a modern SAM warhead.
-- In an interesting (and in my opinion, inappropriate) twist, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has file suit against the two principle psychologists who advised the U.S. Government’s Enhanced Interrogation Techniques (EIT) program [457, 501 541, 678].  I do not know what contractual arrangements the two advisors had with the government, but I expect the government to vigorously defend the two men.
 “ACLU files lawsuit against psychologists behind CIA's interrogation program – James Mitchell and Bruce Jessen, two psychologists from Washington state, are named as defendants in the lawsuit.
by Doug G. Ware
United Press International
Published: Oct. 13, 2015 at 5:38 PM
-- This is really rich!
“Kremlin Says Russian ‘Volunteer’ Forces Will Fight in Syria”
by Andrew E. Kramer, Helene Cooper and Ceylan Yeginsu
New York Times
Published: OCT. 5, 2015
Putin has tried this routine more than once – Crimea, Eastern Ukraine.  Since Putin has not suffered sufficient consequences for his aggressive conduct, I suppose he feels this ‘volunteer’ nonsense is working for him.

            Tuesday evening, the first debate for the Democratic Party presidential candidates occurred.  There were many elements of interest, but only one that struck a nerve for me to comment upon at this stage of the silly season.
            This group of hopefuls appears to be unanimously against free trade agreements, arguing that such agreements allow jobs to go outside the country.  They argue that jobs should be forced to remain in the U.S.  Not only do they demand jobs be retained here, but they also argue that entry level and/or low skill jobs should be paid substantially more money, i.e., raise the minimum wage.  From my perspective, this is yet one more example of a knee-jerk, populist treatment of symptoms rather than root cause(s).  The rhetoric sounds nice, but it is wrong.  Such insular policies may play well for those citizens who rely on low skill jobs, but they are ultimately injurious to society and the economy.  We will not progress by remaining in the past and trying to make labor even more expensive than it already is in this Grand Republic.
            Well, now that I think of it, one more opinion, if you will allow me.  I understand the urge to tax the wealthy and more importantly to plug certain tax loopholes that allow hedge fund and investment bankers to avoid taxes while making obscene amounts of money gambling with other people’s money.  We do not need to tax the wealthy into poverty or even into the middle class.  Yes, they should pay the Treasury more than they do today, but we must find a reasonable balance.
            If we lump all silly season nonsense into the ball of junk, I will add one last observation from this week’s allotment.  The joint whiners-in-chief, AKA Trump and Carson, threw a hissy-fit and pout-fest demanding they be allowed opening and closing statements before any further debates, and that debates must be limited to two hours, or they would boycott the next debate event.  To my shock and horror, CNBC, who will host the next Republican Party presidential candidates debate, bowed to their demands.  I am gobsmacked to say the least.  To me, this is a blatant effort to command attention and squeeze out the other candidates and avoid as long as possible any discussion of substance.  Three hours was not long enough to hear all the candidates; two hours will make it virtually impossible.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.721:
“No doubt there is an information war, exercised by many countries as to what is really going on in Syria.  The two major players, America and Russia can masterfully manage the perceptions to their audiences in their respective countries. 
“I've not been following Russia's military too closely over the years, but the launch into Syria, seems to show their military is more advanced than I was thinking.  And as you mention, Putin's directive to his military leaders, is impressive from the standpoint they have the resolve and capacity, to strike what they call ISIS targets.  Our own information campaign whether from in GOV or out, seems to suggest Russia is hitting the Assad opposition, which we have helped to train and arm, versus just targeting ISIS.
“I read somewhere yesterday while out and about, that Russia has established a direct line to Israel's military command, as to coordinating the airstrikes on Syria by Russia.  At least this is an overture at deconflicting, what could be a bad incident between the multiple nation-states playing a role in Syria (France just conducted some airstrikes this past week).
“I understand Russian and USA airplanes in Syria have gone as close as to have visuals amongst each other, though CBS News said no provocative acts occurred.
“Being aware I send an abundance of material out each week, I did already send this opinion piece by Henry Kissinger in the Wall Street Journal, yesterday, but it can easily be missed in the bulk of emails, so I am linking you to it here:
“Some folks might suggest I don't take anything from Dr. Kissinger too serious as to de-escalation in war,  à la mode Vietnam.
“The Op-Ed you sent in your last Update by Gates & Rice, is interesting, but they too could be accused of helping to start/maintain this whole mess that many would suggest started with Iraq in 2003.
“The geopolitics of what we see in that region of Syria, is a MATRIX.  I assume much of religion there is also being manipulated/presented as to further what clearly are resource wars and billion dollar contracts to weave pipelines through various countries. 
“I might refer to the classic Donald Rumsfeld message:

"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."

“There was an interesting debate on the BBC a couple weeks back I tuned while coming back from LAX.  The round table was an interesting and respectful panel discussing Russia's adventures in Syria.  One of the questions raised, was whether the economic sanction imposed on Russia from The West, may have triggered Putin's moves on the grand chessboard, into Syria.  It seemed a few "experts" did think this was the correct logic for the domino effect.
“On the recent college shooting in Oregon, I agree that through intelligence and laws keeping mentally ill people from acquiring/possessing guns, that if such efforts could actually reduce violence, it might be something many could get on-board with.  We know with software and machine learning, we can use predictive analysis, similar to what we saw in a masterfully done movie MINORITY REPORT.  Of course the begging question is how is this accomplished without breaching the 2nd Amendment and intruding on our rights to privacy?
“As we now see developing in Israel/Palestine, daily knife attacks.  In China we've seen mass knife attacks that killed more than 20 people.  So how do we now attack knives and keep them out of the hands of violent or insane people?  
“I'm sure you and I will agree the focus should be on the actor and not the tool of choice.  Violent repeat felons with evil ambitions, routinely and each day, acquire guns.  There are tons of laws on the books to keep them from doing that, but it happens.
“On the Colonel Pat Lang’s Blog you have in your current Update, interesting reading below.  I might add that with Islam, I am increasingly a believer there is no "moderate" or "conservative" but as to the Islamists fighting for their religion on a global scale or caliphate, there are only RABID Muslims.  And we know what we must do with rabid dogs.”
“Addendum:
“Knew I was missing something important.  On the recent mass shootings--The most important item I forget to stress is that we need to be examining the role that psychotropics, other drugs, violent video games (shooting simulators), lack of God in our nation, destruction of the traditions and family structures, and social insulation/isolation due to Internet, video games, etc..  I would say these contributing factors are much more important than our focus on guns.  The hypocrisy of the politicians who use these tragedies to further their own selfish agendas, should also be examined.
“If Obama & his cartel (and their handlers), wanna talk gun control, start with Chicago.”
My response:
            Thank you so much for your continuing support and for your observations, opinions and contributions . . . always appreciated.
            Putin and the Russians may have numerous motives for their insertion into the Syrian situation.  I’m sure those motives are a designated Essential Element of Information for the Intelligence Community (IC).
            Finding the balance between a citizen’s fundamental right to privacy and government’s proper intelligence collection requirement is an illusive objective, but it must be resolved and reconciled.  Our system of justice hangs predominately upon punishing actions rather than intentions, largely because of our emphasis on freedom of speech and thought, which in turn makes intelligence collection an anathema in our society.  I will be so bold to say that ALL of these mass shooters should have triggered alarms in a properly alert and aware society.  The IC has worked very hard to find and intercede with various terrorist threats with notable but not complete success.  We need the same focus on potentially violent, mentally ill or unstable citizens to stop these events, or at least some of them, before they happen, and any innocent citizen is injured or even threatened.  We are a very long way from such an intelligence system.
            I do not share your ‘no moderate Muslims’ opinion and I will leave it there.  Religion alone is not the problem, but rather the intolerance of cleric interpretations that lead to extremism.  The Islamofascists want us to make it a religious war; they want us to validate their crusades accusations (1095-1291 AD); we must resist that temptation and erroneous path.  This fight is about bad men intent upon harming and oppressing free people.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                 :-)

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