29 September 2015

Update no.719

Update from the Heartland
No.719
21.9.15 – 27.9.15
To all,

            Jeanne and I took a long weekend trip to Austin for a visit with our middle son and his family – always a pleasure.  The drive down during the daylight hours of Friday was not a pleasant experience.  Numerous I-35 construction zones were bad enough, but it was the few idiotic drivers who endanger those around them that make the drive truly painful.   Melissa and Tyson recently moved into their new home – a magnificent house on a large country plot of land in the Hill Country of Texas.  We had the privilege of watching Grandson Judson’s fútbol match on Saturday and Granddaughter Avalon’s gymnastics exercise on Sunday.  I also had the pleasure of playing a couple of games of chess with eight-year-old Judson.  He is impressively good.  Judson fought me to a stalemate.  I had never experienced it.  In fact, I did not know the state existed, or who to call the game.  Tyson had to Google it, so we could all learn.  Well done, Judson.
 Judson & Poppi matching wits in chess
Judson & Poppi chess 150926.jpg
Our time with Melissa and Tyson always seems so short, but we are grateful for every moment we have.  To our surprise, they arranged for a celestial spectacle for us – a perigee lunar eclipse . . . a so-called Super Blood Moon – on Sunday evening; and, the next perigee lunar eclipse in the United States will not occur until 2033.  We were invited to view the eclipse through Neighbor Bob’s excellent telescope with the benefit of the anti-light-pollution regulations of Dripping Springs, Texas.  Unfortunately, high cirrus clouds kept us from enjoying the full effect.  We could see the Earth’s shadow pass over the Moon, but the clouds obscured the reddish hue imparted by the Earth’s atmosphere.  Since we could not take images of our view, I have inserted an interesting sequence to show the blood moon portion of the eclipse from Ibiza, Spain.
Supermoon Total Lunar Eclipse and Lightning Storm

Image Credit & Copyright: Jose Antonio Hervás
LightningEclipse_Hervas_960.jpg
We watched through the peak, and then departed, driving through the night.  While driving all night is never easy, it was substantially easier than the daylight drive down.  The only glitch was a serious, night-time, construction zone detour north of Fort Worth – a little disconcerting in the middle of the night but as we proved . . . navigable.  We did take a short break for fuel and a nap; well, I took a nap while Jeanne availed herself of the Winstar Casino just across the Red River in Oklahoma.  We all have our priorities.  We had a great weekend.  Thank you so much, Melissa, Tyson, Judson, Avalon . . . and Bob.

            I am so confused.  We have presidential candidates who demand we place fundamentalist Christian dogma above the Constitution and virtually in the same breath demand Muslims must reject the supremacy of their interpreted religious dicta in order to become or even run for president.  The demonstrated, public hypocrisy is mindboggling.  Article VI, Clause 3 of the Constitution of the United States of America states, “. . . no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.”  Those words have remained unchanged since the Constitution was ratified in 1788. That language seems pretty clear to me.  What is so difficult to understand here?  The struggle to find the proper balance between secular governance and religious faith has been with us since before the Constitution was ratified, and as we see during this silly-season, the separation of church and state has reemerged to full flame.  So, let the debate proceed.

            On Friday, Speaker of the House of Representatives John Andrew Boehner of Ohio resigned his seat in the House of Representatives and thus the speakership. He has made this resignation effective Friday, 30.October.2015. Boehner is not the first Speaker to resign.  The Tea Party conservatives finally pushed him over the edge into the abyss.  The prognosis for the majority leadership is not so clear and may give us a preview of politics ahead of us.  We need to pay attention to this one, as well as we are able to see into the selection process.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.718:
“Regarding the Russian build-up in Syria, I would place it in a move by Russia for Russian interests- and not against the U.S.  They are very concerned with ISIS becoming more successful and moving into the Caucasus- where Russia has been fighting Islamic radicals since 1996 on and off.  They are also concerned with what will happen if secular Syria is taken over by ISIS forces.  Below is something on this point from Col. Pat Lang’s blog - as you know he is a MENA expert, Arabic speaker and long time DIA senior official.  I have had conversations with colleagues from the former Soviet Union who are very fearful of ISIS moving into the Caucasus and getting a foothold in the ‘Stans.’”
[Reprint]:
“The Sunni jihadis have made a shambles of that (the plans for regime change in Syria) policy.  JAN and IS are the real enemies of all moderation and multiculturalism in the MENA area.  The destructive U.S., Saudi, Turkish and Israeli insistence on the downfall of the Syrian Government has created a situation in which the jihadis have a real chance of being the next governing force in what is now called the Syrian Arab Republic.
“Russia has decided that it will not accept such an outcome.  The people who are babbling of Russia's desire for Syrian ports, air bases, and the humiliation of the United States are simply wrong.  What Russia wants is the survival of secularism and the Syrian State.  The real possibility that jihadism would emerge as a threat to the Russian state is unacceptable to Russia. To that end the Russians will seek to build up the position of the Syrian government through equipment deliveries and if necessary direct participation in combat against the jihadis.  The ultimate goal is a multi-confessional, multi-national coalition against the jihadis.
“The U.S. and Russia are natural allies in that fight.  There will now be de-confliction talks between the U.S. and Russia.  Most military people are practical people.  De-confliction talks will inevitably lead to coordination of operations if the military people are allowed to try to make sense of the situation.”
My response:
            The Russians should rightly be concerned about ISIL.  There is fertile ground in the Caucasus and the ‘Stans,’ going back to at least 1917, perhaps more appropriately the 1500s and Ivan the Terrible.  Stalin did NOT make nice with the Circassians, and there are many generations of resentment.
            The Wall Street Journal reported today that diplomatic sources have evidence Russia and IRI are working together to shore up the Assad regime.
            I have no expertise to argue with Pat Lang’s assessment.  I do agree that replacing the secular State with a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy ala the IRI would not be a positive outcome.
            Regardless of Russia’s motives and objectives in Syria, not coordinating anti-ISIL operations with allied C&C is an invitation to disaster, misunderstanding and escalation . . . in different directions regardless of ISIL.  Yes, Russia & U.S. are natural allies in anti-ISIL operations . . . IF they work together.  I sure hope the military leaders in theater are allowed to coordinate, and perhaps even amplify their efforts.

Another contribution:
“I wish I could get as far with apparently simplistic solutions as did that multi-talented communicator Ronald Reagan, but I am doomed by lack of credentials and political savvy, as evidenced by my record of one election and three defeats in my efforts to get the bench in Mississippi's antiquated judicial selection process (popularity contest).  Of course, I will chime in anyway: 
“I wish our leaders could be brave and principled enough to announce that as January 1, 2016, the middle east will be left to middle-easterners, without U.S. aid or intervention of any kind (no boots, advisers, aircraft, munitions, dollars, etc.) except a promise of 100% backing of Israel with all resources available, including nuclear, in the event of an attack on our only real friends in the area.  If the Russians really want Syria, let them have it. If the Muslim nations are not willing to stop Isis, let them suffer the consequences.  We can take care of the threats that result, if we merely secure our own borders and get serious with pursuit of radical Islamic sympathizers here.  It would help of course, if leaders would not worry about being politically correct and loudly demand action from so-called freedom loving Muslims worldwide.  Yes, Dr. Carson said the wrong thing, but he could have explained that until Muslims agree to junk those portions of the Koran that are incompatible with our Declaration of Independence and Constitution, they are not qualified to be President.
“Like you, Cap, I could be wrong, but I'm jus' sayin.'”
Roger Clifford Clapp
My reply:
            I certainly understand your sentiment.
            A couple of thoughts for your ruminations:
1.  I shall convey my thought in the form of a couple of questions.  What if Franklin Roosevelt had been a committed America Firster in 1940?  Would Hitler have been satisfied with domination of the UK and USSR in addition to all the rest of Europe?
2.  You know, I might actually agree with you with one small substitution – replace ‘Muslims’ with ‘all religions.’  First, not all Muslims are subscribers to the violence of radical fundamentalist Islamo-terrorists.  If fact, only a small minority are bad guys.  Further, I do believe most Muslims do not subscribe to the strictures of Sharia Law, either.
            Just some thoughts.
 . . . follow-up comment:
“1.  It was different in 1940.  We were helping real friends.  Most Middle Eastern nations are not our friends.  Let them duke it out among themselves, I say.  I guess the real question always is what are the threats to long-range freedom and liberty.
“2.  The problem I have is with Muslims who do not actively and loudly condemn and visibly contribute to the demise of Isis and the Koran dictate of worldwide Sharia law.  They are very similar to the silent German majority who let Hitler prevail.   "Tch, tch tch, my my, why doesn't someone (else) do something?"  Finally, I don't see how any other religions could have any influence on the problem of Sharia Law or any aspect of the Koran, so I don't agree with your substitution.
“3.  Keep on keeping on...”
 . . . my follow-up reply:
            I did not articulate my point well.
            If FDR had not done what he did, we most likely would have been forced by the Germans to fight on their terms.   Even as it played out, the margin of error was small.  There are several decisions made by Hitler that proved fatal and could have easily had far worse outcomes.  First, not finishing off Great Britain in the Summer of 1940, when they were their weakest and most vulnerable.  Second, turning on Stalingrad instead of pressing on to the oil fields of the Caucasus.  While FDR was hesitant to engage by supplying Britain, he made the commitment before the RAF had won the Battle of Britain.  The safe play was to withhold support, to remain truly neutral.  Even as it happened, U.S. logistics support prior to U.S. entry into the war was dangerously late arriving.  My point was, FDR took the bold move to project U.S. power, to take the fight to the enemy as best he could given the constraints of the day.  Better to fight on our terms rather than theirs.
            Sharia is an interpretation by clerics just as there were detrimental interpretations by clerics in other religions, e.g., the trial of Galileo.  Judeo-Christian dogma has a six-century head start on Islam.  I believe Islam will mature in time.  It is only a matter of that time and how much pain we and future generations must endure to allow that maturation.
            I do agree that Muslims must reject and condemn the extremists subverting their religion to feed the megalomania of the extremists.  That is precisely part of the maturation process, just as it had to occur in Judaism and Christianity.
            This Grand Republic was founded on secular governance of the public domain and sufficient separation of religion to the private domain of individual citizens.  Fundamentalist Islam interpretation that places Sharia law above the secular State clearly is inconsistent with the Founding principles of this Grand Republic.  My point here was, we bear witness even today that fundamentalist Christians seek to place their religious beliefs above secular law, e.g., Kim Davis et al.  So, I see this in broader terms than Islam and Sharia Law.

Another contribution:
“Love that choice of words there Cap: FILTRATION.  Beautiful!
“Trump was complaining the temperatures in the last debate were too high.
“Trump is high on talking points, but very low on substance, no doubt.
“Of course the seismic news on Friday was House Speaker Boehner calling it bye-bye, just one day after meeting the pope.   Wow!  Now the scramble for someone to fill the void is going to get interesting in that area we call the Beltway (let's hope the belt on the pulley will not break).
“On Russia, interesting times indeed.  Putin I understand, will be on 60-Minutes (CBS) on Sunday night.  I intend to view that.  Plus Obama is due to meet with Putin here in USA, what, next week?   The potential for error is risky when we are not communicating from any kind of unified command in Syria, with Russia, with various nation-state fighter jets doing air strikes, supposedly on ISIS/ISIL, and now to add in Russia to the mix, makes one wonder how can we operate in such a risky format?  
“From the news feeds I am seeing, it appears USA and China are forging perceived alliances and economic (and climate change) compacts.  I wonder if this is alienating Russia, since we have all those sanctions slapped against them (which may be rightfully so given there advance on Crimea).
“On USA accepting more Middle East refugees, this is what I wrote on a friend's Facebook page commenting on how many Muslims were coming out at our local amusement park: 
"Hi Allyson [Anon.], I see it too with an explosion of Muslims coming out of closets or recently arriving in San Diego. The key question is do they assimilate well into our values, culture and Christianity? The answer is no, in fact many are in direct conflict to us. Many are tapping social services yet hate America. Look at the mess France has with immigrants from Muslim hubs, that do not at all embrace their host, but deplore her."

“Weird times Cap! Geopolitics/geostrategy and what I coin as geoeconomics, is certainly faster than SPEED NORMAL. 
“Glad the pope, so far, has been kept safe.  I had a bad feeling about his NYC visit, though he got through it.”
My reply:
            Thank you for your contribution.
            Re: the current leading Republican candidate.  This is one of those moments in history where we simply must have faith that the American people (and at the moment, voters who identify as Republican) will eventually realize exactly what he is.  It seems to me that his perceived success so far is more about protest than substance – not a good rationale.
            Re: Boehner.  I have not had access to my usual news feeds this weekend, so I’m not exactly sure why he has chosen this rather drastic action.  This is a particularly rare event, kinda like a CNO committing suicide in office.  He is not waiting until his end of term either, so this will likely be a more illuminated replacement, selection process, and further I suspect the Tea Party extremists will make it a point of demonstrating their ire with the party establishment.  Fasten your seat belt and hang on; it is likely going to be a rough ride.
            Re: Putin.  I heard.  I probably will not be able to watch the interview until next week.  Yes, Obama & Putin are to meet in NYC during the UN General Assembly.  Yes, the risks at present in Syria are mounting rapidly from my lay perspective.  There are reports Russian operated combat aircraft are intentionally switching off their transponders, so allied C&C aircraft and facilities cannot see them – a very dangerous situation.  Perhaps this is exactly what he desires and intends – somebody (anybody) gets shot down – to demonstrate Russian power projection.
            Re: refugees.  I am in favor of helping refugees . . . over there.  I am not in favor of admitting people into this country who do not wish to accept and enhance our society, our culture.  I will not include religion in that objective of assimilation.  France is demonstrating exactly what happens when assimilation is not a criterion for admittance. 

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

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