Update no.958

Update from the Sunland

No.958

18.5.20 – 24.5.20

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

            To all,

  

            Today is the day we remember those who gave their last full measure of devotion to this nation over the centuries of history.  Let us all give thanks lest we ever forget.  We owe our freedom to those who stood to the mark and were not found wanting.  May God rest their immortal souls.

             Remaining true to form, on Monday this week, the Bully-in-Chief (BIC) made an unscripted, off the cuff, highly controversial statement to dominate the headlines for the coming week.  Holding out his hands, as he so often does, like he is gesturing ‘it was this big really,’ the BIC publicly declared at an impromptu ‘Presser’ that he is taking the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine.

A lot of good things have come out about the ‘hydroxy,’ a lot of good things have come out.  You'd be surprised at how many people are taking it, especially the frontline workers before you catch it, the frontline workers, many, many are taking it.  I happen to be taking it.  I happen to be taking it.  [incredulous reporters]  I’m taking it, hydroxychloroquine.  Right now, yeah.  A couple of weeks ago, I started taking it, because I think it’s good.  I've heard a lot of good stories [about hydroxychloroquine] and if it's not good, I'll tell you right.  I'm not going to get hurt by it.  It’s been around for 40 years for malaria, for lupus, for other things.  I take it.  Frontline workers take it.  A lot of doctors take it.  [reporters’ questions]  Excuse me.  A lot of doctors take it.  I take it.  I hope to not be taking it soon because you know I hope they come up with some answers, but I think people should be allowed to [take it].  I got a letter the other day from Westchester, New York, around the area.  He didn’t want anything.  He said sir I have hundreds of patients.  And I give them hydroxychloroquine.  I give them the Z-Pak, which is azithromycin [Zithromax; an antibiotic], and I give them zinc.  And out of hundreds of patients, many hundreds, over 300 patients, I haven’t lost one.  So please, keep pressing that sir.  I take, for whatever it’s worth, I take it.  I was, I would’ve told you that three or four days ago, but we never had a chance, because you never asked me the question.  [reporter: Did the White House doctor recommend that you take that, is that why you’re . . . ?]  Yeah, the White House doctor.  He didn’t recommend it, but no, I asked him, what do you think?  He said, ‘Well. If you like it.’  I said yeah, I’d like it.  I’d like to take it.  A lot of people are taking it.  A lot of frontline workers are taking hydroxychloroquine.  A lot of frontline, I don’t take it, because, hey, people say oh maybe he owns the company.  No, I don’t own the company.  You know what, I want the people of this nation to feel good.  I don’t want them being sick.  And there’s a very good chance this has an impact, especially early on.  But you look at frontline workers.  You look at doctors and nurses.  A lot of them are taking it.  As a preventative.  And they’re taking, totally unrelated, but they take the Z-Pak, or the azithromycin, for possible infection.  Now, I haven’t taken that other than an original dose, because the, all you need is only, you don’t have to take it simultaneously, but the zinc you take.  I’m taking the two, the zinc and the hydroxy.  All I can tell you is [it really is this big] so far it seems to be OK.

Do you believe anything in the BIC’s statement?  History tells us the BIC is lying—not one word is likely true, not even his “this nation to feel good” sentence.  His statement that he has been taking hydroxychloroquine for “a couple of weeks” is quite consistent with his many performances over the years as a snake-oil salesman.  When he says such things, think of him standing on his medicine wagon, holding up a purple glass bottle with cork stopper, and proclaiming to the gathered, captivated crowd that his magic elixir reconstructed his deformed hand, reconnected his severed spinal cord, and returned his sight from prolonged blindness.  He clearly believes in his snake-oil elixir—good for him.  Unfortunately, the scientific data does NOT validate his claims (it might when the medical studies are complete, but it does not now).  So, when he states that hydroxychloroquine works for him, think of that image—the BIC holding that purple bottle labeled Trump’s Magic Snake-Oil Elixir.

            The Center for Disease Control (CDC) publicly stated that no proper, controlled, scientific study has indicated the use of hydroxychloroquine for prophylactic use against or treatment of COVID19 infection.

            To the BIC, ‘stories’ are more important, far more important, than hard factual, scientific data.  As he has so often told us, his gut feelings override all facts, just as it did for Clark Stanley and his Snake Oil Liniment over a century ago.  As he says, “what have you got to lose?”  Oh, I don’t know, perhaps your life!

            Just a little historic factoid here might be appropriate.  In no small measure, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was established on 30.June.1906 by the Pure Food and Drug Act [PL 59-I-384; 34 Stat. 768] to deal with worthless ingestible substances like Clark Stanley’s Snake Oil Liniment.

            If you wish to believe the BIC, fine that is your choice.  You can swallow his elixir and believe it cures your ills.  I believe in freedom of choice . . . that is until your freedom of choice hurts other people.  As for me, I will stick with science and the proven processes.  The emperor has no clothes, folks, and the snake-oil elixir he is hawking is worthless . . . and might actually harm you.

            With all the weighty issues that must be dealt with today, why on God’s little green earth does he continue to spend all that precious time hawking hydroxychloroquine?

            The hits just keep coming.  As the BIC left the White House enroute to Michigan [below], the self-proclaimed ‘stable genius’ left another brain-fart on the wind.

And I tested very positively in a, in another sense.  So, yeah, this morning.  I tested positively toward negative, right?  So no, I tested perfectly this morning.  Meaning I tested negative.  But that’s a way of saying it.  Positively toward the negative.

From the BIC’s language (faithfully) transcribed above, an intelligent person might think the fellow who spoke like that had a very poor education as a child.  When he speaks like this, he makes George W. Bush seem like a master of rhetoric, logic, and speech.

            So now, the protective facemask has become a machismo thing for the BIC (and others)—some kind of offense to his manhood.  He visited a Ford plant in Michigan on Thursday, and of course, he refused to wear a protective mask when everyone else was wearing one and openly defying the company policy for all people working or visiting the plant.  He declared, “I’m not going to give the Press the pleasure of seeing [me wearing a mask].”  He is so bloody disrespectful.  The BIC is truly a petulant child—worse, a petulant child in a powerful office.  This is a consequence of malignant narcissism at work, and I have very little doubt that his malignancy will cost many precious lives.  Of course, all the defiant protestors are cheering him on, and he is all too willing to feed their anarchistic or fascist bent.  I suppose the only thing that will satisfy them will be millions of dead.  The BIC could not care less; he’s got his protection.  The rest of us are free to fend for ourselves; he has declared it’s every man for himself.  He seeks to make this pandemic an us versus them affair.  Heck, maybe this is the root of the conspiracy, to intentionally kill off his opponents before the election.  He is working very hard to make voting harder rather than easier for that purpose as well.  These are the times in which we live.

            The BIC’s idiocy has led us to even more division—us versus them.  The protective facemask, which should be about reducing the transmissibility of the dangerous virus, has become his symbol of defiance and power.  So, we witness his supporters with their political campaign banners and confederate flags protesting at close quarters without protective masks.  His believers have guzzled down his magic snake-oil elixir and publicly proclaimed they have been cured and immunized against the COVID19 virus and all other diseases

            I reject the BIC’s idiotic selfish foolishness.  I will continue to respect other citizens around me and wear my PPE in public.  I’ve given up on the BIC’s supporter respecting my rights, my freedom of choice, my safety; they have joined him in his symbolic defiance of the government’s own published guidelines.  I shall have to pray respectful citizens are protected through this crisis.

            I listened intently and with surprising gratitude to an interview with Timothy Michael Cardinal Dolan of the Archdiocese of New York.  With far too many “Christian” clergymen across the country yammering about violations of the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, it was extraordinarily refreshing to hear Cardinal Dolan speak about responsible worship during these troubled times.  There are even so-called “Christian” clergymen who are openly defying the guidelines as some First Amendment protest . . . thanks in no small measure to the BIC’s rejection of the personal guidelines.  Thank you very much, Cardinal Dolan, for being a voice of reason and spiritual leadership.  We need many more of you in this once grand republic.

            Despite the BIC’s openly negative example, we do see encouraging reports from various news sources and media of American citizens who are using their ingenuity, caring and concern for their fellow citizens in very positive, uplifting ways.  It is truly a blessing to see a 12-year-old child who is displaying far greater leadership than the BIC has ever shown.  There is hope that we will survive this episode in our history and become stronger for the experience.  Thank you so very much to all the decent American citizens representing the best in us.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.957:

Comment to the Blog:

“I haven’t read that book, but it’s certainly the quickest to take advantage of the current situation.

“I understand the politics of Manafort’s release, but I’d like to call attention to the role of prisons and jails in spreading contagious diseases, including the current virus.  I see no remedy for that except some form of release for large numbers of prisoners.  Perhaps prison employees and available technology could be used for home confinement.  That would serve both a medical and a legal purpose.

“I see a future of some of the Chump’s statements as examples in psychology textbooks.  What really bothers me about him is the number of people who voted for him.

“The attempt at a lock-down is essentially the result of our poor preparedness and isn’t the method of choice for dealing with the pandemic.  We’re still not doing test-and-trace or providing actual, effective PPE to the general public.  I find myself in agreement with people I dislike that the Law of Unintended Consequences is kicking in hard and will continue far beyond the timespan of the virus.  I only used ‘unintended’ here because of the staggering lack of foresight and insight among the ‘leaders’ and their medical advisers.  We pay a high price for possibly saving the lives of those at risk in the other lives of domestic violence victims, overdoses, and various other dead people.  That cost is not being reckoned.  Also, I haven’t seen civil liberties taken away and then restored in my lifetime.  For example, the PATRIOT Act is still in force.”

My response to the Blog:

            If you do choose to read “Viral,” please let me know what you think of the story.  He uses his knowledge to hypothesize a better way of dealing with pandemic potential pathogens.  Very intriguing story.

            Re: Manafort.  I just think the “coincidence” is just too convenient, i.e., the BIC made more than a few statements of his considering a pardon for Manafort; just too damn fishy.  BTW, prisons feature large in the “Viral” story.  I think you will like how he deals with it.  I’m not against compassionate release of prisoners in this crisis.  It is Manafort specifically that sets off alarms for me.  There are certainly more than a few non-violent, low-risk prisoners, e.g., marijuana possession, who deserve to be released.  A long-time friend of mine died in prison (Florida) in February; he had medical issues and got very poor, complacent treatment—no compassion in his case.

            There are way too many issues that bother me about the BIC, not least of which is the large number of people who voted for him.  I seriously underestimated tribal herd mentality in getting him elected.  Up until the very end, I could not see how anyone would vote for such a flawed and incompetent person [six (6) bankruptcies]; but, they did—62M Americans.  That reality cannot be underestimated, again.  At present, I’m assuming those 62M American will vote for him, again.

            Yes, lock-down is an anathema in a free society.  What must not be forgotten in all this is, the denial by the BIC for 70 days squandered our opportunity to contain the spread.  Once the containment window closed (circa 23.January.2020), lock-down became the only effective option to break the chain of infection.  The continuing climb of the infection rate to this very day (passing 90,000 fatalities) is testament to the failure of more than a few folks to abide the lock-down rules of conduct.  The lock-down was drastic and prone to failure even without the BIC’s non-compliance example, but it did slow the spread.  We had spot exceedances of local treatment capacity thresholds (I’m so grateful we don’t live in those areas), but not generally overwhelming the health care system.  New York City is a good example.  You are spot on correct.  We have no general plan for test & trace, and now, we have the BIC’s minions openly defying the protection rules and demanding we pull out all the stops.  From my perspective, we are rushing head over heels toward a far worse second peak.  I desperately want to be wrong, but the signs are not good.  All this clamoring to reopen will simply prolong the pain, but such is life.  We shall endure.  It did not have to be this bad.  So many bloody failures by the BIC directly and his administration, and he has begun in earnest his misinformation campaign to deflect any attention from his failures.  He is very good at what he does.  Unfortunately, his successes have nothing to do with serving We, the People, and our safety.

            We have a very clear choice this November.  We must encourage every eligible voters to cast their VOTE.  62M is not a small number and will not be easily overcome.  VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!

. . . Round two:

“I agree that Manafort’s home confinement is corrupt. No news there.

“I favor releasing many prisoners in general, and that would be compassionate, but it would benefit society at least as much as it would the prisoners.  Guards and others have close contact with prisoners.  Then they go into the community daily.  Most prisoners are released after their sentences without quarantine as a condition of release.  Changing their imprisonment from the facilities to ‘home confinement’ would contain the virus far more effectively.

“I referred to much more specific effects of the lock-down than ‘anathema in a free society.’  The concrete question for which there’s no concrete answer yet is: are we losing more lives due to increases in domestic violence, mental illness, addiction, and economic desperation than we are saving by shutting down society?  How about health costs and other damage?

“I agree that Chump’s response to the pandemic is extremely late and misdirected.  I doubt that containment was ever possible, but marshaling of PPE (for everyone) as well as test-and-trace materials, personnel, and facilities could have begun months earlier and still lacks force.  I will note, however, that hospital facilities are far from overwhelmed here.  People aren’t seeking treatment for non-virus issues even if they need it (more deaths).  A contact who works in a hospital here tells me they have many open beds, and the corporate parent of that hospital has made nice money installing outmoded equipment in an ‘overflow’ facility that has yet to see a patient.

“I’m still not voting for a ‘lesser evil’ candidate this year.  Neither are millions of others.  Not Trump is not enough.”

 . . . my response to round two:

            Agreed fully.  ‘Nuf said on Manafort.

            I’m with you on prisons, although meticulous care must be taken to not release dangerous prisoners.  There is no question prisons are ‘spells trouble’ facilities.

            Balancing health and economic contra-forces will always be a challenge, especially when we approach the boundaries as we are now.  The process of finding the balance is a matter of experimentation, i.e., try this, see what happens.

            Containment was possible.  We’ve successfully done it with Ebola, Zika, SARS, and others.  The processes are well known, as documented by the Obama administration playbook.  With a highly contagious virus, the window for containment is unusually narrow.  From my perspective, the window for COVID19 was days to a few weeks wide—very narrow.

            The USG has been behind this virus from the get-go and remains behind in virtually every category from PPE, to testing, to contact tracing, to guidance for reopening.  Now, the second peak is a very real threat.  In this instance, too much capacity is far better than not enough.  Early on, we focused on reducing the infection rate to avoid medical treatment saturation.  In reality, the other half of the equation is capacity.  Several states were successful in increasing capacity, which made the system more tolerant of infections.

            The question we should be asking, if we did so well with the lockdown, why is the infection rate still quite positive (no inflection point yet).  New York has been successful in turning the corner; the United States has not.  That fact alone does not bode well for reopening the economy.

            You can look at our choices as voting for the “lesser evil.”  However, a glass is half full approach is the “best of our choices.”  Abstention or outright complacency will quite likely ensure the BIC is re-elected.  He may not get 62M votes this time, but I’ll bet his vote count will be close to that level, since his believers are intransigent, and they vote.  No human being is perfect, not Bernie Sanders, not Joe Biden, not Justin Amash, not anyone, not even Karl Marx or Vladimir Lenin.  Abstention is a de facto vote for the BIC, IMHO.

 . . . Round three:

“The issue with containment is that this virus spread before we knew it.  I’ve seen a report of a U.S. case from December.

“You didn’t address the deaths caused by the lock-down rather than the virus.  I’m aware that the lockdown's not stopping the virus.

“You can go ahead and say whatever you like until you’re blue in the face.  It didn’t move voters before and it won’t now.  The fact is, negative campaigning has won elections mainly by turning off voters.  Welcome to the 21^st Century.”

 . . . my response to round three:

            Perhaps.  I’m certainly no expert.  As a forensic engineer, I have had to perform many investigations like this to sort out.  You look for one clue that leads to two, and then more until the problem is solved.  Yes, absolutely, the comparative slow gestation period coupled with the non-symptomatic contagious individuals dramatically complicates the investigation process.  In this instance, seemingly indirect infection paths and the rapidity of travel added even more complexity.  But, respectfully, I still contend the containment window existed, not for long, but it still existed.  The PRC took extraordinarily aggressive actions (not practically possible in a free, democratic society) but those measures worked (to the best of our knowledge).  I don’t think the December case has been confirmed as a COVID19 infection fatality.  Comparable unconfirmed reports that the first detected case (patient zero) occurred in Wuhan, PRC in early November.  We do not know the details, but the point remains we need dedicated contact-tracking experts as the core for temporary teams when the need arises.  No matter when or how broad, the containment period occurred; we missed the window.  To put this question in context, imagine a virus with the contagious potential of COVID19 and the lethality of Ebola—very scary.

            Trying to ascertain fatalities attributed to other related causes like stress, confinement, economic burden, et al, will never be easy, if it is even possible.  We should try in order to understand the full dimensions of such actions in dealing with pandemic situations.  The more we understand, the better we can refine our actions.

            The lockdown had a positive effect in places, i.e., reduced infection rate, but we clearly had far too many people who did not abide the guidelines and respect others.  If we cannot take appropriate actions to reduce the infection rate, then our only remaining option is the other side of the equation—treatment capacity.  We must develop a clear, broad, general plan to surge capacity where and when required.  We did that as well, but far too late and far too spotty.

            I am not sufficiently naïve to disregard your pessimistic view of American voters.  Yet, history is on your side, not mine.  As such, we must prepare ourselves for the real potential of the BIC being re-elected for another four-year term.  I shudder to think of what might happen if that potential comes to fruition.  His staunch supporters vote.  They are a minority, but they are a dedicated minority.  We have born witness for the last 3.5 years, but a second term where even the remotest concern for public opinion vanishes is hard to imagine.  That potential alone is depressing, so I remind everyone who will listen that we must vote.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                  :-)