Update no.951

Update from the Sunland

No.951

30.3.20 – 5.4.20

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

            To all,

            Today is Day.  Tomorrow is also Day, the day I publish this week’s Update . . . I think?  The days are all blending together.

            The follow-up news items:

-- The United States now leads the world in COVID19 [946] infections and the available (incomplete) data suggest we will soon lead in deaths.  Thank goodness our leaders have started to display the numbers of recovered and/or discharged patients in addition to the numbers of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.  The numbers of infected and recovered are far larger than those who have succumbed.  We must hear the positive as we keep our eyes on the negative.

            The U.S. Navy’s two operable hospital ships have been deployed to assist in the nation’s COVID19 response—the USNS Mercy (T-AH-19) to Los Angeles and the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) to New York City Pier 90.  The hospital ships will take on cases other than COVID19 infections to free up local hospital capacity for COVID19 treatment.  Unfortunately, there are not enough of these vital ships to deploy one to all the major port COVID19 hotspots beyond Los Angeles and New York, e.g., San Francisco, New Orleans, Seattle, and Chicago.  Something is better than nothing.

            With the COVID19 pandemic dominating the Press capacity for news in the last bunch of weeks, even on the 24/7 cable news outlets, a barely reported but very important news event occurred this week.  The Department of Justice (DoJ) Office of the Inspector General (OIC) released its report on the follow-on, broader investigation of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) performance in the use of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) for surveillance warrants involving U.S. citizens.  The report’s title is: “Management Advisory Memorandum for the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Regarding the Execution of Woods Procedures for Applications Filed with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court Relating to U.S. Persons,” issued on 30.March.2020.  This is the investigation requested as a consequence of the OIG’s report to the House Intelligence Committee (HPSCI) during the impeachment hearings last fall [936].

            The latest report identified numerous errors in various FISA warrant applications that I attribute to lack supervision regarding the Woods Procedures documentation requirements.  The Woods Procedures were established in 2001 as a consequence of earlier errors discovered in the FBI’s use of FISA warrants, especially in the detailed sourcing and corroboration of supporting facts as the basis of the applications.  None of the errors noted in this report or the HPSCI report [936] point to or even hint at criminal mischief in the warrant application process, just lax use.

            Unfortunately, as with all law enforcement actions, any errors or lackadaisical use lead directly to questions of validity.  The FISA warrant applications and the Woods Procedures are laborious, time-consuming, and difficult to perform, but the processes are specifically in place to protect the precious rights and freedoms of We, the People.  The failure of the FBI to perform at the expected level casts doubt on the organization’s ability to protect our rights and us concomitantly.  The consequence in a free society will make us less safe.

            Worst of all, the FBI’s failure to perform as expected, as identified in this report and the earlier HPSCI report, gives the Bully-in-Chief (BIC) an opening to reject anything and everything that came afterward regardless of whether the FBI’s mistakes had any material bearing whatsoever.  As expected, the BIC drives a dump truck full of boulders through the slightest pinprick of a hole.  The FBI’s mistakes gave the BIC an out for his crimes.

            On Tuesday, 31.March.2020, the daily White House briefing informed We, the People, that in the best-case scenario may well yield 100,000 to 240,000 COVID19 deaths, and a worst-case result of one to two million deaths.  The stark briefing was markedly different for POTUS.  I give him credit for trying to be honest with us, but then, as always, the BIC shoots himself in the foot making it all about him and he denies any responsibility in bringing us to this point.

            On Wednesday, 1.April.2020, the BIC utilized his daily White House COVID19 briefing to trot out the Defense Secretary, the Attorney General, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the National Security Advisor to sing his praises on how good they are doing with drug interdiction operations and border security.  I have no idea what that has to do with the COVID19 crisis, but hey, the BIC gets to talk about whatever he wishes for whatever reasons he chooses.

            Lord, I wish he was a better man and we did not have so bloody much bad experience with him.  We need him to be a contributory and supportive leader, but after all he has done, we are left with one binding question—is he telling us the truth now?  Very sad, as he loves to say.

            The BIC had the perfect example of how to handle a very negative situation in a positive, uplifting and encouraging manner.  If you have not listened to or read Prime Minister Churchill’s speech to Parliament, to the British people, and to the world on Monday, 13.May.1940, three days after he became prime minister, you should do so.  Everyone should study that speech and especially listen to Churchill’s tone, meter, and the cadence of his words.  Masterful!  Churchill was blunt, direct, and honest, and yet provided words that encouraged a nation to defy the odds against them and sustained them through their darkest hours as they stood alone against the unbeaten Nazi war machine.

            “And so it goes.”

            Unemployment claims jumped another 6.6M last week—the largest one-week job loss ever recorded.  Although the cost to the economy and the welfare of millions of Americans citizens is enormous, perhaps history will record these times as the worst, the POTUS deserves credit for having the courage to declare a national emergency [948] and to encourage states to issue stay-at-home orders as they deem appropriate.  It was the right thing to do.  The BIC can be criticized for many things, but this is not one.

            Of course, the BIC being the BIC, he waited until the moment when the United States is approaching the peak of COVID19 pandemic, when the Press and We, the People, are almost solely focused on the pandemic, to fire Intelligence Community (IC) Inspector General Michael Kevin Atkinson, who did his job as specified by the law.  Atkinson was the person who received the whistleblower’s report that led to the BIC’s impeachment [940].  He announced the firing Friday evening in an attempt to bury the event in the COVID19 coverage and the weekend.  The leopard cannot change his spots; he is what he is.  Another worthy public servant pays the price for the BIC’s vanity.  Good luck to you, Mister Atkinson.  Godspeed and following wind.  You did your job, and We, the People, are grateful and appreciate your professionalism.

            Just on Friday, the BIC pronounced to the country and the world that the federal stockpile of medical supplies is the federal government’s supplies.  The states should have their own stockpiles.  In essence he is saying, I’ve got mine, where’s yours.  The federal stockpiles of anything do not belong to him, or even the federal government; they belong to We, the People, period, full stop!  The only purpose for his nonsense and false possessive discussion of the federal stockpile is to cover-up how grossly unprepared the USG was for this pandemic.  This failure belongs to him and him alone; he cannot push this one off on President Obama.  The BIC has been POTUS for three-plus years.  Stand up and be a man for once, damn it!  Further, as we know with this fellow, he will dole out those medical supplies to those governors who praise him, who throw no shade his way, and who are properly genuflecting to the altar of the Oh So Great Orange One.  He tries so hard to do the correct thing, and yet he just cannot help himself.  He is desperately but expertly trying to erase his failures in the early weeks of this pandemic; he will not be successful.  More than just me will remember what he has done.  We shall bear witness to his failures.  The only thing that will alter the BIC’s grossly egocentric attitude and actions will be for him or one of his immediate family (the most impactful would be Ivanka) to suffer the consequences of COVID19 infection.  I do not wish that on anyone; I’m just sayin’.

            In 2009, President Obama eliminated the White House Health and Security Office that worked on international health issues including pandemic and epidemic infectious events.  After the trauma of the 2014 Ebola crisis, President Obama established the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense within the National Security Council (NSC) in 2016.  The directorate had government executive responsibility for epidemic and pandemic planning and preparedness.  Since the BIC is mindlessly against anything & everything with President Obama’s fingerprint on it, true to form, he disbanded the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense at the NSC in May 2018—how prophetic!  Regardless of the BIC’s vociferous pronouncements, the USG was NOT prepared for this pandemic.  Further, as a consequence of the BIC’s gut feelings that led him to his public denials, the USG lost six weeks of potential effort to get ahead of the pandemic that the experts warned him was coming.  Mother Nature eventually slapped him in the face that his lame denials would not alter the course of the virus, and we have what we have today and must endure tomorrow.

            A reader and frequent contributor likened our current predicament to a bad movie.  To which, I responded, “Yes, an OLD, bad movie . . . a contemporary version of the Keystone Cops.  The BIC's and USG's survival of the fittest policy & position is and will be his Katrina.  This is what the mix of incompetence and narcissism does to any organization.  And, there are still people who absolutely swear by and believe in his worthless snake-oil.  God help us survive this man.”

            Another friend and frequent contributor asked, “And what would have you done as President?”  To which I responded, “I would not have disbanded the pandemic defense office in May 2018.  I would have listened to the CDC experts when the warnings first sounded in Dec 2019 and directed the ramp-up of testing, and I would not have said the extraordinarily foolish things the BIC has said in a vain attempt to clean his image.  As soon as the warning alarms were sounded, I would have directed the national stockpile to coordinate with the states to establish a prioritization or triage system for equitable support to the states. I would most definitely NOT have the states competing with each other for very limited supply due to disruption of the global supply system. I could go on, but that's a reasonable starter, it seems to me.  The experts forecasted exactly these consequences years ago. The Naval War College carried out a pandemic war game last year with devastating results.  The truth does not matter if no one will listen.”

            With the uncertainty and restrictions of the COVID19 crisis, and the inevitable conspiracy hypotheses that germinate from such events, I feel compelled to illuminate some relevant history.  During World War II, the United States and Great Britain imposed dramatic and serious restrictions including mail censorship, serious travel restrictions (both direct and indirect), food and supply rationing, limitations on the Press, among others.  The restrictions were necessary and warranted in those times.  From my perspective, the war restrictions were far more intrusive and impactful than what we face today.  The restrictions passed.  The current restrictions will pass when the need for them has passed.

            The BIC has labeled this virus the China virus or the Wuhan virus.  He is flat-assed wrong, full stop!  Those statements by the BIC inevitably led to some of the conspiracy theories, e.g., this was an intentional bio-warfare attack by the PRC, and now we see evidence of xenophobic assaults in this country.  Now, to be clear, the BIC will claim he never made that accusation, and to my knowledge he is correct.  He never directly said that precisely.  However, to the believers and consumers of the BIC’s snake-oil, they interpret it in nefarious terms.  This is the consequence of the BIC’s words, regardless of his intentions.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.950:

Comment to the Blog:

“I will note that the loudest and most official voices in the current virus panic are also the least appropriate.   I find the communication of the medical people in high government positions inexplicable and inexcusable.  It’s almost as if they wanted us to panic, or maybe they just relish their time on camera.  Their numbers and predictions have even less foundation than marketers’ numbers, and they utterly disregard the mental health and economic issues they aggravate.  Those issues around the response will likely cause more deaths and other harm than the virus in question.

“I dislike the Chump, but the fact is, an effective response to the virus is beyond the capacity of the United States.  Large numbers of test kits, the necessary quantities of medical equipment and plentiful ICU beds don’t exist here.  South Korea keeps it all handy.  After the noise dies down, we should examine the systemic issues behind that.  The Chump is being his usual bumbling blow-hard self, but he recognizes the importance of the global economic crash.  I’ve lost all respect for United States politicians of any stripe.  Every one of them and almost all the activists are exploiting this situation for their own gain.

“I watch no news coverage on TV right now.  I get my information about the virus itself from limited and reliable sources.  I’m ignoring politicians’ statements as much as possible.  All I really need to know is official limits on my behavior in the current police state.  Based on all my friends’ experiences and a professional's advice, many of us ought not to risk the anxiety and/or depression induced by any more media reports than are strictly necessary.  Much of that is sheer sensational speculation anyhow.

“I’d like to see the $1200 hit my account, but I’m not counting on it unless/until it does.  Maybe I can spend that on Amazon.  I’m sorry if someone didn’t expect corruption in the rescue bills.

“Human nature doesn’t tolerate lock-down, which is why it never holds for long.”

My response to the Blog:

            Wow!  That is a rather pessimistic assessment.  Do you believe the medical professionals are inflating their views of the current crisis?  Based on unrelated, independent evidence, it is my opinion that they are trying to give us the best evaluation of the evolving data as they can.  I do not believe they are trying to cause panic.  There are far too many doctors from across the country, too many vid clips of patients waiting in hallways for treatment . . . there is just too much independent factual evidence this is more serious than the politicians want us to know.  I trust the doctors, not the politicians.

            As I have noted previously, our health care system is a for-profit process.  As such, they size, supply and staff for routine operations to keep their paying beds full.  They are NOT sized for unforeseen surges in demand common to a pandemic crisis.  The BIC disbanded the White House Pandemic Preparedness Office earlier in his administration.  The USG had ample indications something very unusual was afoot in Wuhan, PRC, in early December, with the first case appearing in the U.S. in late January.  The USG epidemiologists sounded the alarm in January, but the BIC was more worried about his numbers [948].  Thank goodness, reality eventually got into his thick skull.

            I have not detected or recognized political posturing by any of the governors.  They remain seriously concerned about their respective situations . . . unlike the BIC.  I try not to be naïve, but I’m not quite so cynical regarding politicians.  Deep cynicism is what brought us the BIC.

            I think many in Congress tried as hard as they could to insert accountability, but with US$2.2T leaves ample opportunity for corruption.

            The individual benefit of the CARES Act is a worthy gesture, but I fear it is just a drop in the bucket.  I am not expecting anything, but I will be grateful for whatever comes.  We may be facing economic depression, not just recession, and I would not advocate we expend all our ammunition at the outset.

            Re: lockdown.  Indeed!  Especially in a free society or at least a society that was once or thinks of itself as free.

. . . follow-up comment:

“Your questioning of what I said about the medical people seems to be based on the notion of the ‘rational actor,’ a libertarian idea long since disproved.  As with every human being, their psychology influences their actions.  Whatever their motivations, their ‘best’ evaluation of the sketchy data is the most extreme, not the most likely, and they insist we rely on it.  The clips and things you discuss are anecdotal evidence. That is not to be relied on.

“I have considered the amount of the individual/family benefit of the CARES Act.   For many, it will be less than one month’s rent—and the lock-down has already been extended longer than that.  I’m already living in poverty, so it will go further for me.  I have no question that we’re facing an economic depression.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            “If you don’t believe in something, you’ll fall for anything.”

            I do the best I can with the facts I can collect.  I am very far from perfect, and I do not claim omniscience.  Like most analysts, I weight some facts more than others to arrive at my opinion or my perspective.

            We have been self-isolating on the suggestion and national initiative.  Yesterday, Arizona joined most other states in official lockdown . . . for a month (four weeks), so that will put us at least six weeks.  And, the lockdown is going to be extended longer, because the USG was so bloody late on testing (and here I mean the whole testing process: collection, analysis, reporting and action [if necessary]),  We have no idea what our real infection rate is.  Without accurate numbers, we are prone to taking incorrect actions, as we have seen.  Just a few short weeks ago, the BIC was talking about 15 people dying and the numbers were going down; today, we just passed 3,000 deaths; so much for his veracity.  IMHO, the reason we have not seen the flattening of the curve is because the virus is doing what the virus does, and we cannot see the consequences until well down the course of infection.

            I do have questions about the extent of the economic results of this crisis.  I am not at depression, yet.

Another contribution:

“You’re behind on the truth . Cuomo has had stockpiles of ventilators in warehouses and now admits it .. if you would just watch Carlson and Hannity you would save a lot of energy used to bitch and moan and the truth would come to you much faster !!”

My reply:

            Unfortunately, you offered more right-wing conspiracy nonsense.  I do not have the capacity to chase ghosts.

A different contribution:

“What a mess we are all in but it will not beat us will it. Some scathing comments in the blog re the BIC-mind you he was never well received this side so we completely understand the somewhat less than complimentary comments re your top man.

“Of course, it’s no business of us Brits is it but I do feel dreadfully saddened by the probably totally justified ‘anti’ comments by your fellow Americans.  I know we live in a democracy and as such we are entitled to be critical of each other, but it is none the less sad that this man attracts so much bad press.  Remember your time in uniform Cap-If we had a man, or woman, who was not ‘up to scratch’ you moved him on.  You took no chances when dealing with powerful weapons and that’s exactly what you are, a powerful weapon.  Find him another job-I understand he likes golf courses.  Sorry to be so facetious bud but better times are around the corner-even the darkest of nights can awake to a glorious day.”

My response:

            Yes, we shall overcome.  The question is how much pain must be endured to achieve victory.  The signs are not all negative, but the preponderance certainly are.  Our “top man” was elected to serve We, the People, but he has only served himself.  Oh sure, a few of the rest of us get his droppings, but he has resoundingly failed on so many bloody levels.

            Unfortunately, the BIC’s conduct affects us all; you are not excluded, so he is fair game as well.  I have seen him for what he is—a worthless snake-oil peddler—since I first became aware of him on the public stage.  My first recorded public condemnation of the man goes back to Update no.236 [12.6.2006 – 18.6.2006] well before he declared his official candidacy 16.6.2015 [Update no.705].  I truly look forward to the day I can ignore him as irrelevant.  Until that day arrives, I intend to persist in the devotion to my oath of office as an officer of Marines to “support and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign or domestic.”  The BIC qualified long ago as the latter.  Yes, it is very sad that this once Grand Republic has been brought low by this deeply flawed and deficient man.  You would think a genuine crisis would bring out his better, more worthy side; but alas, once again we are disappointed by his inadequacies and failures.

            As Kurt Vonnegut so eloquently and succinctly wrote in his magnum opus “Slaughterhouse Five,” “And so it goes.”

. . . follow-up comment:

“I can’t say I enjoy criticizing other country’s leaders but the temptation is boundless and irresistible in this case. 

“How’s that virus affecting your area-not too bad in this part of Suffolk but deaths are increasing currently over here-we have hope though.  The peak can’t be too far away.  We’re, well all of us, are currently under virtual lockdown. But we are fed and watered.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            I do not enjoy criticizing any leader, including the BIC.  For whatever reasons that motivated them, they stood up to the mark and took on a job of leadership.  They deserve credit for that effort.  Our duty as citizens is to hold our leaders accountable; they do not get a free pass simply because they chose to seek powerful public positions.  The BIC is a very special case, if not unique, in that he displays seriously injurious personality flaws and exhibits them almost daily.  I urge you and everyone to be as critical as you think appropriate.  We are not here to sing his praises.

            Fortunately, we have not been touched directly by the COVID19, or any other virus, so far.  Like most others, we have been affected by social distancing or self-isolation orders.  We do not have the same problems as younger folks, like our children and grandchildren, who need to work to protect themselves.  We are both retired, so fairly stable.  My writing work is pretty solitary normally, so I simply press on with those projects.  We managed to stock up for weeks; we’re not stocked for months of this.  We will have to venture out in another week or two.  The current government estimate is we might reach 100K to 200K deaths before this is all over and could reach 1M to 2M if we do not heed the precautions.  Both of us are considered in the high-risk group, so our task is avoidance and constant mutual evaluation.  Our greatest fear is a doctor telling us we do not qualify for a ventilator if the requirement ever came.  Avoidance is the key.  The current estimates are the peak should come by mid-April, although the data I see does not show that yet.  I suspect we will be under these restrictions until June, and then we face the daunting task of economic recovery.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                  :-)