Update no.949

Update from the Sunland

No.949

16.3.20 – 22.3.20

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

            To all,

            To So Few – Hunter is Cap Parlier’s 16^th published book and the 8^th book of the To So Few series of historical fiction novels.  It is available in print and all digital formats from bookstores and on-line retailers.

To So Few – Hunter Front Cover

            In the wake of the devastating attack on Pearl Harbor, the American volunteer fighter pilots serving in the Royal Air Force in England seek transfer to the U.S. Army Air Forces and are told to be patient; transfer will come in time.  Losses and defeats continue to mount for the Allies—Singapore, Hong Kong, Tobruk, Malaya, the Philippines and Wake Island fell to the Axis—although winter and the Soviets stopped the German advance on Moscow.  Brian ‘Hunter’ Drummond and his No.71 Eagle Squadron brethren press their contributions to the United Kingdom and freedom itself.  The squadron is involved in some of the most significant aerial combat engagements of 1942 like the Channel Dash, the Bruneval Raid, and Operation JUBILEE—the ill-fated Dieppe Raid, as they take offensive air operations to the Germans in Occupied France.  Charlotte and Brian raise their young son Ian, and use some of Brian’s inheritance to expand their property holdings in Hampshire.  Finally, No.71 Squadron is officially transferred and becomes the 334^th Fighter Squadron of the newly arrived U.S. Eighth Air Force.  As the squadron transitions, Brian is ordered home to join other celebrities in support of the First National War Bonds Drive.  He had no assurance he would be ordered back to England.  Brian reluctantly leaves Charlotte and Son Ian on the farm outside Winchester with an uncertain future of wartime.

            As always, Cap invites readers to write a review, tell your family and friends about the book, and offer constructive criticism.

            The follow-up news items:

-- The COVID19 virus, also known as 2019-nCoV or novel coronavirus 2019 [946], crisis expanded substantially this week.  On Monday, 16.March.2020, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted 30 seconds into trading triggering the Level 1 circuit breaker halting trading.

The NYSE has three progressive trading circuit breakers levels:

Level 1 – 7% drop of the S&P 500 – trading halted for 15 minutes for cooling off,

Level 2 – 13% drop of the S&P 500 – trading again halted for 15 minutes, and

Level 3 – 20% drop of the S&P 500 – trading halted for the rest of the day.

The DJIA fell nearly 3,000 points (13%) during that day’s trading alone.  The DJIA has lost more than 10,000 points in two weeks, one third of its value.  The signs I see point to further losses.  The bottom will come eventually.

-- Less than two weeks after Congress passed and the President of the United States (POTUS) signed into law the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020 [PL 116-123; 134 Stat. xxxx; 6.3.2020] [948], they added larger follow-on legislation on Wednesday, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act[PL 116-127; 134 Stat. xxxx; 18.3.2020] that expand the U.S. Government’s (USG) COVID19 response.

            Some of the states began to implement the USG recommendations regarding social distancing and self-quarantining to break the chain of the COVID19 infectious spread.  California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Connecticut issued lockdown orders to all public interaction except essential activities.  The USG began to mobilize with the new laws noted above.  The POTUS cited a 70-year-old law—Defense Production Act of 1950 [PL 81-774; 64 Stat. 798; 8.9.1950]—utilized by President Truman during the early days of the Korean War to transition industry from commercial to war production.  The POTUS suggested the USG might use the 1950 law to mobilize U.S. industry to support the COVID19 response.  The disruption of the economy has been significant and will likely get much worse before we turn the corner.  The market has slipped into Bear Market territory, and the experts are forecasting unemployment may reach 20 million.  The Fed cut interest rates to near zero.  Talking of recession and even depression have begun to percolate into public intercourse.  Congress is struggling to generate a US$2-3T stimulus package legislation that dwarfs the combined stimulus packages at the beginning of the Great Recession signed into law by President Bush {Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 [PL 110-343; 122 Stat. 3765; 3.10.2008]} [355] and President Obama {American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 [PL 111-005; 123 Stat. 115; 17.2.2009]} [374].  Considering the rapidity and depth of this current economic downturn, the current version of the USG’s economic stimulus is probably warranted—a lot of American citizens do and will need help.

            As some of us continue to call out the Bully-In-Chief (BIC) for making matters worse during the COVID19 crisis, he and his supporters always default to wrapping themselves with the flag.  They advocate vociferously for those like me to stop criticizing the BIC and support his efforts to save the country and humanity.  If he would just keep his mouth shut and stop doing bonehead things, there would be no reason to criticize him.  As long as he continues to do the crap he does, I will continue to illuminate his myriad foibles, flaws, and mistakes.

            The daily briefing on Saturday by the USG demonstrated in graphic and dramatic form by the BIC is incompetent as POTUS or any position of public responsibility.  Just the tone, demeanor and words of contrast between the president and vice president.  When the BIC speaks, his words are disjointed and sometimes incoherent.  When he is questioned by the Press, he is argumentative, antagonistic and unresponsive.  He often degenerates into me, me, me.  When the BIC verbally assaults a journalist for doing his job, the BIC is violating his oath of office.  He swore before God and We, the People, to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States,” which he is violating in his attacks on the 1^stAmendment.  The job of the Press is to ask probing, challenging, argumentative, and even antagonistic questions of the POTUS and every government official—it is their job!.  The BIC clearly resents being challenged, so he lashes out as he did on Saturday.  When he violates his oath of office, I am obligated by my oath of office to confront the offender; that is precisely what I am doing now.

            I am not a fan of Vice President Pence, as the consummate moral projectionist; however, he acts and speaks as a president should; he is calm, measured, factual and unemotional.  He takes the tough questions from the Press (most times) and responds as he should.  At troubled times like these, Pence would be a far better president than the BIC ever has been and ever will be.  Unfortunately, the BIC is our duly elected POTUS, and he is terribly wanting.

            After we lost precious weeks as a consequence of the BIC’s denials, obfuscation and refusal to listen to the medical experts, as is his nature, the BIC is now trying to claim he recognized it was a pandemic “long before [the medical experts] called it a pandemic.”  And of course, we believe him implicitly, right?  Respectfully, he still does not get it based on Saturday’s White House press conference.  We were able to tolerate his buffoonery when the economy was booming . . . not so much in this crisis when the economy has tanked, and we desperately need an inspirational leader.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.948:

“I am sending your Update to the combined geopolitical/econ and aviation lists.  Thank you for your work with your weekly Update.

“Trump in his infinite wisdom goes live and tells the nation how the markets will love the FED (who he has been pressuring and unduly influencing) and their emergency move on a Sunday of lowing the FED rate to 0.25%.  Right now market circuit breakers are activated as the DOW Jones Industrial Average has dipped to over 2,400 points!  So much for the above logic.  Now the FED has no ammo (or little, except to go to negative rates) to maneuver with.

“We are now in uncharted waters.  Fasten your seat belts.

“Keep Calm and Carry On!

“Take care and everyone check your toilet paper inventories, and if low, go to Staples and buy legal pads.”

My response:

            As always, you are most welcome to distribute as you wish.  All comments and contributions are encouraged.

            Yeah, the oh so great, infinitely wise one tells us all the time that everything is peachy-neat.  Despite his unwavering belief in his omnipotent image of himself, even he cannot fool Mother Nature.  The bill will come due; always does.  Regardless of his false claims, the Oh-So-Great-Orange-One (when he decides to apply his face paint) watched with the rest of us as the New York Stock Exchange tanked in gross fashion reaching the Level 1 and Level 2 circuit breaker thresholds, stopping trading, and left the DJIA down 3,000 points (13%) in one day.  Yeah, quite so, thanks to the BIC’s incessant berating of the Federal Reserve to inflate his ego, and in doing so, as you note, the Fed has very little ammunition to fight recession and/or depression.  Thank you very much Oh-So-Great-Orange-One.

            We have been in uncharted waters since November 2016.  The waters got substantially more turbulent in the last month.  Strap in, indeed, and cinch it up tight.

            Wise counsel we should all endeavor to heed.

Another contribution:

“Well we may be approaching the equinox, but the English weather still believes it’s winter…this virus is turning the world upside down.  There’s now talk of us over 70s being locked up in doors!  Not sure who’ll do our weekly shop!  Like you I believe, your family are not on the doorstep.

“Hey, we’ll survive-the Nazis didn’t beat us and neither will this.”

My reply:

            Yeah, we are facing the same restrictions in the colonies as well.  I hope we can avoid the lockdown state.

            Yes, indeed, this too shall pass.  Stay strong my friend and abide the government’s instructions.  Take care, stay warm & dry, enjoy what you can.

 . . . follow-up comments:

“Good day Cap, it is only an ‘amusing’ few lines re your head man say something like this on the virus,

“‘More people are going to die than have died before’…

“We are just about in ‘lockdown’ and we’re still losing people-however the results coming out from China are encouraging.

“We will endure-is there any choice? No.

“How’s the writing?”

 . . . my follow-up reply:

            Our “head man” is barely either.  He has said so many foolish, verging upon maliciously ill-informed and inarticulate, things in the last few weeks . . . well, actually in the last 50 years of his life.  He is completely devoid of any semblance of compassion, empathy, understanding or knowledge.  He is singularly driven by one paramount, if not sole, motivation—pumping up his grotesquely inflated ego . . . me, me, me!  Social distancing or worse lockdown are intended to break the chain of transmission.  Yes, the information from the PRC and RoK is very encouraging.  The important lesson is this event is, be vigilant and careful; paranoia and freezing life does not help anyone.

            Yes, we will endure.  Humanity survived the Black Plague and the 1918 H1N1 Influenza pandemic.  We will overcome this one as well.

            My writing had a little hiatus for taxes; Uncle must get his due.  This week’s Update will announce my latest book—To So Few – Hunter.  It is my 16^th published book and the 8th book of the To So Few series of historical fiction novels.  I’m currently working on another divergent novel; the story takes a different approach to the so-called war on drugs.  I’m also working on my outline for To So Few – Struggle (Book 9 of the series) that takes the characters through 1943.

A different contribution:

“I always thought BIC was bitch in charge. :-)”

My reply:

            LMFAO.  Good one and it works nicely for the man who is the BIC.

Yet another contribution:

“Re JB and BS .. They are knowledgeable, informed, articulate and persuasive???? Where on the “green earth” could you deduct that ?? Ha !! They are BS artists !!  And Biden is clearly the puppet who may just slip Hillary in as his running mate, then should he insanely get enough votes to win, will somehow leave office and wellah she becomes President.. scary thought.  In some ways I almost hope it happens just so I can rub it into you but no ... my love for this country prevails and your continued bitching and moaning and weekly anti Trump tirades aren’t worth being concerned with.

“And don’t worry about the virus.. Trump has plenty of agencies paid to take care of the issue..just as these same agencies handled health issues in previous administrations.. as for using a teleprompter we all know who did that most .. and he also had plenty of writers !!  So Trump goes teleprompter once and you criticize.. yawn..”

My response:

            I appreciate your inherent revulsion to Democrats.  So, perhaps you have not had the opportunity to listen to the debate.  If not, you really should and try to keep an open mind.

            This may come as a shock but neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton are running for any public office.  I suppose it is possible to choose Hillary as a VP, but I think that is highly unlikely for a host of reasons.  For reasons previously stated, I would not be able to support such a ticket.

            To be frank and candid, I would love to be singing the praises of our POTUS.  Unfortunately, the man who currently occupies our Oval Office, as our employee, gives me far more to criticize than to praise.

            Don’t worry about this virus crisis . . . really?  I respect Mother Nature even when the BIC believes he is more powerful than Mother Nature.  No matter how powerful he thinks he is, even he cannot fool Mother Nature—the virus will do what viruses do without regard to the omnipotent image he holds of himself.  I presume you are going to vote today; enjoy.

            President Obama is no longer president; the BIC is!  He is on the hotseat, not Obama, or Bush, or Clinton, or Carter.  The BIC cannot hide.  So far, he has been showing himself to be wanting.

            Oh, the BIC has gone teleprompter before—same outcome.  Just a little serious practice would really help him do better.  I strongly recommend you take some time to read and listen to Churchill and Roosevelt, even John Kennedy.  The BIC just does not measure up.  We need a viable leader, and we get the BIC’s claim he is “not responsible.”  He can deny his position, but history will judge, and I suspect history will not be kind to this president.

 . . . follow-on comment:

“Highly Judgmental One, Yes that is just your opinion ..”

 . . . my follow-on response:

            Yes, I suppose so . . . and that is all that it is . . . my opinion.

Comment to the Blog:

“Well, it’s finally happened. I agree with the Chump, at least in his perception of the ‘pandemic’ and in what I perceive as his intention.  The actual infection rate per capita for COVID-19 is highest in Italy, where it’s at 350 per million.  That works out to a tiny fraction of 1%.  Beyond that, 80% of cases don’t need hospitalization or even prescription medications.  What people are not pointing out is the total population involved versus the number of actual or potential cases.  Also, ignore worst-case scenarios. They serve a planning purpose but are not intended to be realistic.  I’ve studied marketing and, thus, perception.  There’s a great, needless panic underway.

“What is disastrous is the response to the pandemic news.  Unemployment has risen by fiat, the entire travel-and-tourism industry is in a coma along with entertainment, and the Dow Jones Average has dropped from over 29,000 to under 21,000.  Other markets match the rate of loss.  The human harm is already extensive based on my Facebook groups and what remains of my human contacts.  Did anyone consider what alcoholics do when bars stay closed?  How about people who can’t pay rent or buy food?

“I believe the Chump has picked up on the panic.  His real understanding will be the market mess.  He’s well aware that fact and logic don’t move people much, and he’s right that we need people to stop panicking.  He’s doing what he can by saying soothing things, however irrational.

“However, I agree with the New York Times’ Dealbook newsletter this morning.  The central banks have done all they can with monetary policy.  We need fiscal action.  Supporting the unemployed, covering healthcare costs, and somehow helping businesses and industries that have lost (and will lose) huge amounts of revenue would address the panic.

“Draining the swamp will mean drying up the income of both major political parties and going from there.

“We already have the dangers of a national emergency.  Please God don’t bring the military into it.  I don’t have the money to move to another country, and this one would be over.”

My response to the Blog:

            Yes but . . . what he failed to grasp is the underlying reason for the sense of urgency among the medical experts and professionals is the lack of surge capacity in our treatment processes.  If we had unlimited respirators & ICU capacity, we could do what the BIC has advocated for so long—relax folks, let the disease run it’s course; this will pass; this is not so bad.  That is not reality.  We have very limited capacity as a consequence of the profit motive in the health care service community.  Once we exceed that capacity threshold (which some reports have suggested we already have in hot spot areas), then the triage decision will decide who lives and who dies.  I do not want to be in that latter category.  Thus, I do not support or appreciate the BIC’s message.  He thrives on chaos, and chaos is NOT what we need right now.

            The consequences of the panic induced by the BIC’s bizarre, conflicted and confusing words is one level of disaster.  An altogether greater level of disaster is his persistent denial, deflection, snake-oil crap cost us 4-6 weeks of early response when “flattening the curve” would have been easier, more efficient and more successful.  Unfortunately, by the time the BIC realized he could NO LONGER deny Mother Nature, the USG response induced panic.  We are finding ways to adapt to our new temporary new normal, but this has been a terrible wastage due to the BIC’s incompetence.  His words have not been soothing or calming; they have been indirectly inciteful.

            The die was cast last January when the BIC refused to listen to the medical experts.  The PRC has not been the paragon of virtue in this episode, but they isolated the virus in December, sequenced the genetic code for the virus, and notified the WHO on 7.January.2020.  Now, the BIC is pointing his crooked finger at the PRC rather than himself.  He created the panic we are in now.  Regrettably, we are now relegated to weathering the storm.  The BIC’s early denials and refusal to respond has made the costs of this infection far greater than it needed to be.  The PRC, the Democrats, everyone who disagrees with the BIC are not to blame in this serious situation we find ourselves; there is only one culprit—the BIC.  As always, We, the People, pay the price for our incompetent POTUS.  As I write in this Update, the contrast in leadership between the BIC and Vice President Pence was on dramatic display in Saturday’s White House press conference; we do not need more evidence.

            So far, you are the only response I have received to my drain the swamp question.  Thank you for that.  Money is certainly a root cause for the swamp.  Unfortunately, the many attempts to curtail the influence of money in DC have ultimately failed and been struck down by the SCOTUS decision in Citizens United; thus, we must have a constitutional amendment to overcome that threshold.  Citizens United made that objective much more difficult.

            I suspect our situation is going to get significantly worse before we see improvement.  The precipitous drop of economic output in the last few weeks portends deeper consequences.  Strap in, this is going to be a rough ride.

 . . . follow-up comment:

“The more I study the history and background of this disease, the stranger the response seems.

“First of all, I did college-level coursework in crisis communications.  This is not how it's done.  Even if the panic-stricken voices were correct, the presentation is utterly wrong.

“Secondly, we're not even attempting to follow the best practices here.  Best practices mean doing whatever gets the best results.  Those are in South Korea, followed by Taiwan and Singapore.

“There's more. I actually spoke to eight or ten people yesterday (don't tell the government), and at least three of them wondered aloud if they'd already had this virus in November or December. Something certainly went around that was passed off as "a virus" or "stomach flu." Given the state of diagnostic practice, those "flatten the curve" charts could be seriously off. In any case, people lie with charts and graphs.  It's easy.

“At this point, I'm complying with legally-enforceable directives to the extent I can. I learned long ago that panic never helps in any situation, and I'm annoyed with the many voices urging me to panic, regardless of party or the relatively factual content of their statements.

“I agree about the role of capitalism on this particular event.  I'm not sure what it will take to get capitalism out of politics, but if it doesn't happen life will only get worse for most of us.”

 . . . my follow-up response:

            I am with you on that one, Brother.  I have been doing exactly the same thing.  Understanding the timeline and sequence is important.  The BIC is depending on us (as he always does) to not pay attention to such details.  Like the snake-oil salesman wants . . . do not look too closely.

            I did not study crisis communications, but I truly believe you are correct.

            I think the scientists are struggling mightily to convince the USG to follow best practices; however, when the boss remains in denial, or creates and feeds chaos, it is not surprising that we get this disjointed, confusing result.  I have little doubt he will make this situation more difficult than it needed to be, but we shall endure and overcome.

            I do not think your conversationalists had the virus unless they visited Wuhan, PRC in October or November of last year.  Whether the charts are accurate in this instance is irrelevant.  The principle represented is accurate to my knowledge and understanding.

            Like you, we are complying with USG & state guidance.  We really must break the chain of infection, to reduce the infection rate.

            Panic serves no purpose and usually makes matters worse.

            There are some segments of civilized society where the profit-motive does NOT belong.  All signs point toward worse before better.

 . . . one more round . . . :

“Best practices would include some semblance of what South Korea has done. 

“Some doubt has arisen about the origin of the virus. The story available in the media is that Italian investigators suspect that some of their cases may have originated in November. Let's remember that the facts we have heard endlessly in the media are largely educated guesses. Given that doctors often don't bother to pin down which virus cause a patient's symptoms, there's room for doubt.  By the way, Italy has the second-oldest population in the world, which may explain some of the severity there.

“I am complying with enforceable rules. I just don't have that buy-in that marketers seek. Frankly, the state of the economy seems more of a threat to me.”

 . . . my response:

            The RoK appears to be the most successful at literally turning (flattening) the infection rate curve.  The PRC has flattened their infection rate curve as well, and they had no choice but to increase treatment capacity, since they had exceeded local capacity early on in the crisis.  Singapore and Japan have kept their infection rate low, but still not turned the corner.  As a quasi-scientist, the key is testing, i.e., we must know the data as accurately as possible to understand and amplify the efficacy of intervention actions.

            My understanding of the COVID19 timeline and the infectious disease investigatory effort have not yet identified Patient Zero, but the current data indicate Patient Zero was in Wuhan, PRC, in early November 2019.  The PRC government recognized something was seriously different was occurring in Wuhan Province and deployed medical investigators.  Once they had confirmation of COVID19, they dutifully notified the WHO.  Until the investigative data are made public, many questions regarding the origin (Patient Zero) of COVID19 will remain.  I want to see peer-reviewed infectious disease investigatory information as soon as it is available.

            We are complying with USG & state guidance as closely as possible.  It is the correct thing to do at times like these.  Being in the high-risk cohort adds a degree of caution.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                  :-)