10 April 2017

Update no.799


   News from the economic front:

Staples Explores Sale, Stock Jumps 13%

Tue, April 4, 2017 9:51 am
Staples is exploring a sale, less than a year after its effort to merge with rival retailer Office Depot failed on antitrust grounds. 
The Framingham, Mass., office-supplies seller is in talks with a small number of possible private-equity bidders, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks are early and it is possible they won't lead to a deal, the people cautioned. 
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Federal Reserve's Lacker Quits as He Acknowledges Role in Alleged Leak of Confidential Information

Tue, April 4, 2017 1:44 pm
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he was stepping down effective Tuesday in a letter that revealed his involvement in an alleged 2012 leak of confidential Fed information. 
Mr. Lacker said he had spoken with an analyst from Medley Global Advisors on Oct. 2, 2012. During the conversation, he learned the analyst knew confidential details about policy options that would be discussed at a coming Fed meeting, he wrote. By not refusing to comment during the conversation with the Medley analyst, Mr. Lacker said he may have given the impression he was confirming or acknowledging the information. The official said he didn't mention this during an internal 2012 investigation. 
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Fed Minutes Show Most Officials Saw Reduced Balance Sheet 'Later This Year'

Wed, April 5, 2017 2:12 pm
Federal Reserve officials agreed at their March policy meeting that they would likely begin shrinking a $4.5 trillion portfolio of Treasury and mortgage securities later this year, though they remained undecided on some important tactical questions, such as how quickly to reduce the holdings and to what level, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. 
The minutes of the March 14-15 meeting help to answer a question hanging over markets in recent months. The central bank has been telegraphing interest-rate increases for years but has been noncommittal on how it will handle the sizable securities holdings it acquired through asset-purchase programs during and after the 2007-09 recession. Those programs were meant to hold down long-term interest rates and boost economic growth. 
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Spotify Finally Readies an IPO...That's Not an IPO

Thu, April 6, 2017 7:12 am
Music-streaming service Spotify is readying an initial public offering that is expected by year-end. The rub is this: It may not really be an IPO. 
Spotify is seriously considering a direct listing, in which the company would simply register its shares on a public exchange and let them trade freely, according to people familiar with the matter. The company wouldn't raise any new money or use underwriters to place new blocks of stock. 
That would mark a departure from the typical IPO, in which new investors buy shares from the company or its early investors, or both, the night before they start trading. 
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YouTube Blocks Ads From Channels With Fewer Than 10,000 Views

Thu, April 6, 2017 4:05 pm
YouTube said video channels on its site must now have more than 10,000 total views before the company will place ads on their videos, a major shift in policy the company said is designed to punish rule breakers. 
The move by YouTube, owned by Alphabet's Google, comes amid a backlash from advertisers over the company's placement of ads on objectionable videos. The change is likely to reassure some advertisers, though it could also upset many of its millions of creators. 
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Oil Trader Gunvor Approached Competitors Over Possible Sale

Fri, April 7, 2017 6:25 am
Gunvor Group, one of the world's largest oil traders, has sounded out competitors over a possible sale, two people familiar with the matter said. 
A deal would further consolidate a sector that is already dominated by a small group of secretive giant trading firms. These companies buy and sell physical oil, shipping it around the world. 
Guvnor has discussed a possible sale of the entire company with at least two competitors, according to people familiar with the matter. It is unclear what stage those discussions have reached. 
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Correction to 'Oil Trader Gunvor Approached Competitors Over Possible Sale'

An earlier email alert about Gunvor approaching competitors over a possible sale misspelled the company's name as Guvnor. 
Following is the corrected WSJ email alert: 
Gunvor Group, one of the world's largest oil traders, has sounded out competitors over a possible sale, two people familiar with the matter said. 
A deal would further consolidate a sector that is already dominated by a small group of secretive giant trading firms. These companies buy and sell physical oil, shipping it around the world. 
Gunvor has discussed a possible sale of the entire company with at least two competitors, according to people familiar with the matter. It is unclear what stage those discussions have reached. 
See More Coverage »


U.S. Employers Added Disappointing 98,000 Jobs in March; Unemployment Rate Fell to 4.5%

Fri, April 7, 2017 8:47 am
Employers slowed their pace of hiring while the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in almost a decade in March, highlighting steady but sometimes mixed progress across the labor market. 
Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 98,000 in March from the prior month, the Labor Department said, a sharp slowdown from the prior two months. The unemployment rate dropped two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.5% even as more people joined the workforce, pushing the measure to the lowest level since May 2007. Economists expected 175,000 new jobs and a jobless rate of 4.7% in March. 
Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 2.7% in March compared with a year earlier. 
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Update from the Heartland
No.799
3.4.17 – 9.4.17
To all,

            The follow-up news items:
-- After embattled House Intelligence Committee Chairman Representative Devin Gerald Nunes of California (Republican) jumped into the cesspool of Trumpian politics [797], he recused himself from the committee’s possible probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election.  A triumvirate of Representative Kenneth Michael ‘Mike’ Conaway of Texas, Representative Harold Watson ‘Trey’ Gowdy III of South Carolina and Representative Thomas Joseph ‘Tom’ Rooney of Florida will replace Nunes for the Russia investigation.  The Office of Congressional Ethics (the same group the Republican majority tried to castrate at the current sessions opening) will look into what Nunes described as “entirely false and politically motivated” accusations lodged against him.  From my perspective, the accusations appear to be spot on.
-- The chemical attack on the village of Khan Sheikhoun, Idlib province, Syria, killed at least 85 people, including 27 children, and approximately 550 other people, including many children, were injured.  Autopsy results of three victims indicated the chemical agent sarin was the cause of death.  This particular attack was not as severe as the 21.August.2013, sarin [GB] gas attack on a suburban Damascus neighborhood, killing at least 1,429 people, including 426 children, and precipitated President Obama’s red line statement [611, 614].  As a related footnote, I happen to agree with President Trump on this one; President Obama’s failure to enforce this threat weakened the United States, especially in that part of the world.  An axiom of life: NEVER make a threat you are not fully prepared to enforce.  In reality, a threat is tantamount to pulling the trigger.  In the early morning hours of Friday, President Trump ordered an attack on the Shayrat Air Base in Homs province, reported the base from which the aircraft that executed the Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack took off.  Two destroyers, USS Porter and USS Ross, launched a total of 59 tomahawk cruise missiles from the Mediterranean Sea over a half-hour span beginning at 02:36 [C] EEST {19:36 [R] EDT} on Friday.  The Defense Department reported that 58 of the 59 missiles struck their targets.  For reasons I know not, they did not crater the runways, leaving the runways immediately usable (very strange).

            We have a local special election for our district representative next Tuesday to replace Mike Pompeo [789], who became Director of Central Intelligence.  The Republican glitterati started showing up this week to bolster their candidate and maintain the seat for the majority.  The Republican candidate Ron Estes has carried out a particularly nasty advertisement campaign against his Democrat opponent James Thompson, who has not responded in kind.  Estes’ advertisements appeal to the basest thinking of evangelical Christians (numerous in these parts) and the more right wing among Republican believers.  Estes is also a disciple of Governor Sam Brownback.  Given his performance as state treasurer, his professed political positions, and this damnable and disgusting advertisement campaign, I can assure you who I will not be voting for in this special election.

            In the wake of last week’s WSJ editorial “A President’s Credibility” [797], an interesting trio combination of disassociated perspectives offers us some intriguing contemplative material given our current predicament.
            First, I would like to illuminate the current season of Showtime’s “Homeland” series program that portrays the fictional ‘Deep State’ reaction to a president not of their liking.  This particular season seems to be even more prophetic than previous seasons.
            Second, Leonard Pitts offered yet another spot-on opinion piece with “Journalists did lousy job covering 2016 campaign” that pegged it exactly.  The Press spent 18 months dancing to the tune played by the Donald.  He told his myriad untruths and got away with it, every time . . . well, except his lame apology for being a rather disgusting misogynistic creep.
            Third, the March 23, 2017 issue of Time magazine with its stark red on black cover titled: “Is Truth Dead?
The title pretty much says it all.
            These are the times in which we live.  And, the President wonders why we do not believe him . . . well actually, he may not care a hoot whether we believe him or not.  After all, he is the president and we are not!

            This was a rough week with the bad guys being particularly active.  First, at least 10 innocent people were killed in St. Petersburg, Russia, as a consequence of a terrorist bomb explosion aboard a subway train.  The train driver had the presence of mind to press on to the next station, which undoubtedly saved lives.  The security services also discovered another backpack bomb that did not explode and was disarmed.  Second, another truck terrorist attack this time in Stockholm, Sweden.  A large truck plowed into pedestrians in a popular, central city, shopping area, killing at least five innocent people and injuring scores of others.  The truck reportedly had a powerful bomb on board that failed to detonate.  It could have been much worse.  Third, on Palm Sunday, near simultaneous bombs exploded at two Coptic churches in Egypt, as worshipers gathered for religious services, killing at least 43 innocent people and wounding many others.  Our hearts and prayers go out to the families of the lost and those struggling to survive of our Russian, Swedish and Egyptian brothers and sisters.  These attacks demand that all of us get involved in security matters.  Our police need our help.  Let us all stand up to the mark.

            The Senate voted 55-45-0-0(0) to invoke cloture on the Democrat filibuster, falling five votes short of the super majority necessary to end debate on the nomination of Judge Neil McGill Gorsuch of the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals [790] to fill the seat on the Supreme Court vacated by the passing of Associate Justice Antonin Scalia.  Then, they voted 52-48-0-0(0), along strict party lines, to abandon the long standing rule of a super majority to confirm Supreme Court nominations, followed by a 54-45-0-1(0) vote to confirm the nomination of Judge Gorsuch.   The Republican majority appears to have also abandoned any hope of compromise.  Gorsuch impressed me as an intelligent, contemplative jurist, who even if he is as conservative as Scalia would not alter the balance of the Court.  The next appointment, should it come during the Trump administration, may well become a blood bath.

            The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration hinted at what it means by “extreme vetting” President Donald Trump has promised.  They want to subject more visa applicants to intense security reviews and have embassies spend more time interviewing each applicant.  The measures have not yet been publicly announced and may well subject foreigners who want to visit the United States, even for a short trip, to being forced to disclose contacts on their mobile phones, social-media passwords and financial records, and to answer probing questions about their political beliefs or religious ideology. The changes could apply to people from all over the world, including allies such as France and Germany.  Such extreme measures would surely generate significant controversy, both at home and abroad, and become a major irritant among our allies.  Does “America First” in Trump parlance means pissing off the entire rest of the world?  Where is that damn decoder ring?

            The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Director of the White House National Economic Council Gary D. Cohn told the Senate Banking Committee he could support legislation breaking up the largest U.S. banks, a development that might bolster congressional efforts to reinstate the Depression-era Glass-Steagall law.  Cohn is a former Goldman Sachs executive and the top White House economic adviser.  This is a very interesting twist and perhaps a forecast of what is to come.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.798:
“What?
“No comment on the miracle from the heartland, my alma mater MSU's noble conquering of the unconquerable CT girl's b.b. team?  No acknowledgment of the domination of both Carolinas in the sport?  what is this... a geopolitical exchange of insults between the left coast(s) , of which the Carolinas are exceptions, and the heartland (of which MS is spiritual leader) without recognition of what really matters to most citizens in our society?
“Come on, lighten up.  Trump, like fine whiskey, will get better with age, unlike the wine preferred by the elite.”
My response:
            Well, my oh my, you called me out and rightly so.  The accomplishment of the Mississippi State women over UConn was indeed monumental.  Yes, also, the Carolinas have done well in college sports.  Game on tonight.  Mississippi being the spiritual leader . . . oh wait . . . my omission cannot induce my contrition on that one.
            Re: Trump . . . a fine whiskey.  Whoa!  Now, actually, that does explain his intoxicating influence on so many citizens.  I never thought of myself as a member of the elite, but I actually prefer wine.  Does that qualify me as a member of the elite?
            Hearty congratulations to the Mississippi State Women’s Basketball team on their extraordinary accomplishment.

Comment to the Blog:
“The only thing we know with certainty about Brexit is that it will be long and strange.
“Thanks for the reminder of Spiro Agnew (‘nattering nabobs of negativism’).  I needed a good chuckle.  The U.S.A. is taking a deep dive into bizarre events.  At this point, ‘thou dost protest too much’ is about all we have confirmed (to the level of legal proof) about the Trump campaign and administration other than the obvious corruption.
“The comparison to the Nixon White House yields another thought. According to historical sources, Nixon did not descend to the level of wandering around trying to find reality until very late in his impeachment process.  Trump seems to have begun at that level.  What lies lower?
“I agree that the ‘new’ North Carolina bathroom bill does no good.  Incidentally, the phrase ‘business and sports organizations’ is a bit redundant. North Carolina is discovering that sports are very much a business.
“While I doubt the ‘deep state’ conspiracy, I will give the Democrats responsibility for being so smug, spineless and insider-based that they lost the election to the orange-haired wacko despite nearly bottomless funding.”
My reply to the Blog:
            Re: Brexit.  I hope not, but I am inclined to agree . . . long and strange . . . and most likely messy.
            Re: Trump administration.  I do not think corruption is an appropriate word . . . at least to this point.  So much of what we face in the current administration is a direct and singular artifact of Trump’s gynormous personality flaws.  He alone has created this chaos.
            Re: “trying to find reality.”  Good observation.  I strongly suspect Trump’s persistent wiretapping conspiracy advocacy may well be his undoing.  The longer he presses, the more likely those conversations will be made public, and I also strongly suspect those conversations will NOT reflect well on Trump or his minions.
            Re: “sports is very much a business.”  Quite so.  I was only attempting to differentiate between manufacturing and entertainment.
            Re: Deep State conspiracy.  I cannot subscribe to the Deep State at this stage.  Unfortunately, I do not blame Democrats in the main for their election loss.  For me, that blame rests solely and completely upon Hillary Clinton; if I was going to add a supplemental, it would be Bill Clinton.  Hillary’s insistence on her private server for government communications, and then unilateral deleting her self-proclaimed “personal” messages, was the killer for me.  I never bought into the Benghazi accusations, the uranium transfer conspiracy, or any other of the myriad conservative condemnations.  Bill’s “social visit” to Attorney General Loretta Lynch on the tarmac in Phoenix was a very public and graphic demonstration of his royal prerogative, elitist mentality . . . not dramatically different from Trump’s obscene self-aggrandizement.
 . . . Round two:
“How is ‘corruption’ not an appropriate word for Trump's administration?  He has ongoing conflicts of interest, supposedly mitigated by making his sons, on paper, in charge of his businesses.  With his worldwide interests, that gesture would not suffice for a local city office, much less for the President of the United States.  Various sources make many additional claims, but just the conflicts of interest resulting from his known properties certainly justify ‘corruption.’  I believe, very much, that you need a broader view of the Democratic National Committee.  You have focused only on a few headlines about the Clintons, but there's much more well-documented information.  Mrs. Clinton could not have achieved nomination on her own.  Not even close.”
 . . . my reply to round two:
            Once again, we bear down on definitions.  In the context of the Trump administration and from my perspective, corruption is bribery, money for political actions – quid pro quo.  I have not seen the profiteering, as yet, although the clear conflict of interest potential articulated long before his inauguration remains valid.
            That said, the textbook definition includes other alternative definitions: moral perversion, depravity, and perversion of integrity that would also be applicable to this individual, in the broader, general sense.
            Re: “conflict of interest” is potential, not realization.  The criminal aspect is realization, not potential.  The potential is quite similar to morality, what one does when no one is watching.  If his continued conflict of interests are documented and realized, then it becomes a felony and impeachable.
            Re: “a broader view of the Democratic National Committee.  I take your counsel seriously and I remain vigilant.  In this context, the DNC is the same as the RNC . . . establishment politics.
 . . . Round three:
“Well, okay. I can do definitions. From Merriam Webster, definition of corruption: ‘1. a:  dishonest or illegal behavior especially by powerful people (as government officials or police officers): depravity’. Found at
“How is continuing to profit from one's office not corruption?  It's not the least bit secret that Trump is profiting from his hotel in DC and from the Mar-A-Lago resort by hosting foreign agents of all sorts who believe they will be seen more favorably if they use his commercial enterprises?  That's not potential.”
 . . . my reply to round three:
            I acknowledged the alternative definitions.  I provided my reasoning.
            “How is continuing to profit from one's office not corruption?”  The problem is, proving it beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.  The morality implications are judged in the court of public opinion.  “Trump is profiting from his hotel in DC” you (we) do not know that.  Like we demand of him with his wild accusations, show us the proof (evidence).  The same is required of our accusations.  He has artfully configured his companies as private endeavors, which makes our insight into their operations far more difficult.  It will take probable cause, warrant(s), and considerable investigation to establish factual evidence sufficient to meet evidentiary standards in a criminal court.
            What is worse, his daughter and son-in-law have or will soon have substantial security clearances with access to extraordinary state information, and we have virtually no way to determine what they pass along to their other family members not in the government.  This is a rat’s nest of the worst sort; yet, we elected him, knowing this was the kind of man he is.  He has been very plain, and we elected him anyway.  We get what we elected.
            At the end of the day, my opinion of the man has not changed; if anything, he has reinforced my opinion.  However, I urge caution in stooping to his level . . . accusations without evidence.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

2 comments:

Calvin R said...

The sarin gas attack on the village of Khan Sheikhoun, Idlib Province, Syria, had yet to be investigated before US missiles destroyed the evidence. Hence, most of the details of tate attack remain unknown. Mainstream discussions are now dominated by conspiracy theories, so this ought to be interesting.

Your and some other Congressional special elections may demonstrate the current political direction of this country. As I write this, Kansas awaits vote counting. People predicting anything further ignore the pace of events.

Those who seek to kill large numbers of people, regardless of motivation, have found a new weapon that will not be banned. The entire world in this century depends on motor vehicles. Turning them against one’s perceived enemies or random targets makes a whole new danger for everyone. If such perpetrators die, any supporters or helpers may become impossible to track. Vehicle thefts make a blind alley for investigators. This also makes claims of responsibility dubious. Explosions continue to have the same trademarks and/or traceable residues as before.

We may well mourn the end of bipartisanship in Washington, DC, but it comes as no surprise. The US Federal government has that way since the Reagan Administration.

As far as Mr. Justice Gorsuch, we shall see. Jurists who refuse to state positions prior to being seated cannot be tied to them later.

I believe the Donald has no clear clue that he annoys and/or amuses the rest of the planet. His self-involved and arguably insane viewpoint does not seek accurate outside information.

Cap Parlier said...

Calvin,
Re: “destroyed the evidence.” The evidence was not collectible at either end per se. This is where we must trust the Intelligence Community and the President. It is quite plausible and well within the capabilities of the allied powers to have seen the Syrian attack mission unfold from takeoff to consequence. On this one, I must give the President the benefit of the doubt. Despite the naysayers, I think he took the correct action in this instance.

Re: Kansas 4th District special election. The results have been counted and reported. The Republican candidate, who stooped to rather vile, personal, advertisement attacks, was elected.

Re: terrorist weapons of choice. The bad guys will use anything they believe undermines the resolve of freedom-loving people and raises doubt in our governments.

Re: “end of bipartisanship.” Quite so. I will disagree only in the genesis. I will argue the source was prior to the Reagan administration and most likely the Johnson administration and the broad distrust of government, in general, born in the societal consequences of the Vietnam War, and specifically how it was conducted by the Johnson administration. Nixon’s paranoia did not help and most likely amplified that blossoming distrust of government.

Re: “Gorsuch.” Indeed, we shall see. Just a tangential comment, the only proper “stated position” for a judge should be, must be, the law. Personal opinions have no place in judicial pronouncements.

Re: “the Donald.” I think you have seriously understated the negative consequences of his pervasive, personality flaws . . . but that is not news.

“That’s just my opinion, but I could be wrong.”
Cheers,
Cap