Update no.673

Update from the Heartland

No.673

3.11.14 – 9.11.14

Blog version:  http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/

To all,

The follow-up news items:

-- The Putin-Novorossiya story has become much bigger than the travesty playing out in the provinces and cities of Eastern Ukraine [636, 640, 658, 665, 670].  The more we see, hear and learn the darker the picture becomes.  I suspected from Putin’s actions that he wanted to return Russia to the glory days of Josef Stalin, especially since he would be the contemporary Stalin; I have yet to believe it beyond a reasonable doubt, but we seem to move closer to that reality by the week.  The latest:

“Putin’s defence of Soviet-Nazi pact ramps up security tensions”

by Kathrin Hille – Moscow

Financial Times

Published: November 6, 2014; 6:13 pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/31b36724-65da-11e4-a454-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl - axzz3IKZQU8AD

Putin’s defense of the Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact [23.August.1939] defies logic, reason and history . . . yet, there we go!  In an odd juxtaposition, the “non-aggression” between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union was temporary for the convenience of Hitler [22.June.1941] as the two dictators carved up and consumed Poland and the Baltic States.  The tragedy in Eastern Ukraine continues.

“The Battle of Ilovaisk: Details of a Massacre Inside Rebel-Held Eastern Ukraine”

by Lucian Kim

Newsweek

Published: November 4, 2014; 11:42 AM EST

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/11/14/battle-ilovaisk-details-massacre-inside-rebel-held-eastern-ukraine-282003.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=%2ASituation Report&utm_campaign=SitRep Nov 5 2014

The question before the Allies is, how far are they willing to tolerate Putin’s juvenile revisionism and bully intimidation of his neighbors.  There will be blood . . . in this instance, more blood . . . before this is over.

-- The process of attaining equal protection under the law for all citizens [citations too many to list anymore] took a step back this week when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6^th Circuit issued its decision in the case of DeBoer v. Snyder [6CCA No. 14–1341 (2014)], which was actually a ruling for 16 same-gender couples in six appeals cases in four states.  I am halfway through reading the legal opinion, so I shall reserve my opinion for next week’s Update.  More to follow.

We have an update from Aslan Soobzokov [480, 496] in his continuing struggle to defend his assassinated father’s reputation.

“Brother Cap:

“May peace be upon you, your family and your readers. 

“Last week a book was published "The Nazi's Next Door".  The author is Eric Lichblau. In Jan/Feb he asked to meet with me about a book he was going to write about Nazis. I welcomed him so that he would be enlightened to not defame my father.  We ate and talked for hours, but when you read his book it is obvious now that he was looking for a smoking gun, he was not being able to understand that it does not exist.

“He is connected to the others for sure.  Do you think he taped our conversations?

“There are many adjectives to describe him. 

“May almighty God bless the righteous.”

My response to Aslan:

Salaam alikum, Akh Aslan,

            I received both your messages.

            I have not read the Lichblau book, as yet.  Unfortunately, Aslan, I think he was looking for more than a smoking gun; I suspect the publisher wanted sensationalism to sell books.  Lichblau is an educated, accomplished journalist, so I have to believe he knows that only the SS, SD, and NSDAP party members were actually Nazis.  After about 1943, even the Waffen-SS were not all Nazis.  It is a very sad abuse of history.  Equally, unfortunately, far too many people erroneously think all Germans and their allies were Nazis.  For publishers, it is all about selling books.

            Most contemporary journalists do record their interviews as it helps them go back to pick up subtleties like intonation.  My guess is, yes, he probably recorded your conversation.  Usually, professional journalists tell you, or ask you, or obviously display the device.  But, these days, a cell phone on the table would be capable.

            Have you read his book?

            We must keep the faith and trust the truth shall prevail.

Allahu Akbar,

Cap

The mid-term election results were disappointing on many levels.  First and foremost, the voter turnout remained typically low across the country.  If I was a conspiracist, I might suggest the Republican state legislatures and executives have been successful in stifling voter turn out.  I even had my brush with those changing election processes.  I asked for a mail-in ballot, just in case I could not vote in person on Election Day.  I took the blank ballot to the polling station as I had done of more than a few prior elections, to turn in my blank mail-in ballot so I could vote on a machine and have my vote counted that day.  Despite history and my arguments with the precinct captain, I could only vote by “provisional ballot,” which means my vote would only be counted if the election were close enough to make paper ballots relevant.  Kansas Secretary of State Kris W. Kobach ran four years ago and again this time on one issue – elimination of voter fraud.  I am an informed, concerned and engaged citizen.  I have not seen factual evidence presented by anyone, in any state (other than Cook County, Illinois) regarding actual voter fraud.  My voting experience this year has NOT improved my opinion of the election process as it is evolving in this Grand Republic.  Add on top of the consequences of tinkering with the election process, the persistent gerrymandering by state legislatures, the reinforcement by the Supremes of elitist power, and the outright deceitful communications (mailing, advertising, et cetera) by one political party does nothing but stoke my anger.  The political elitists count on citizens absorbing and believing their disinformation propaganda, and apparently a sufficient number of voters have done just that.  I cannot say, set aside prove, such broad political shenanigans discourages voter participation in a process that appears to be rigged against change or even engagement.  Yes, I am deeply disappointed in what I saw in this mid-term election; I expected more from the American People.  And so it goes!

A note from a classmate and contributor to this humble forum:

“There is a new book out about our classmate and my former roommate Dave McCampbell's dad.  It is ‘Fabled Fifteen’ by Thomas McKelvey Cleaver.  Dave's dad was the CO of the squadron that the book is about.  Thomas got Dave to write the book's foreword.  Dave's dad shot down 34 Japanese planes and was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor.

“I accused you of having copious spare time 2 years ago.  I figure now that you are retired, you have even more copious spare time.  So you might like reviewing this book.”

To which, I responded:

            Thanks for the heads up.  I’ve downloaded “Fabled Fifteen.”  I read the Intro, Preface & Foreword, and look forward to reading the book.  I’m familiar with the history.  I’m eager to read some of the details of CAG15’s accomplishments.

            Copious spare time . . . I wish!  For years, I held the fantasy that I would be able to write full-time upon retirement, i.e., trade the day job for my passion of writing.  I’ve been retired for six months, and life just seems to always get in the way.  My ambitious plan has yet to be executed.
Postscript: If any of our readers/contributors have read or will read “Fabled Fifteen,” please add your review for the Update readers.

News from the economic front:

-- The European Commission announced it now expects the 18-nation eurozone GDP to grow 0.8% this year, down from 1.2% growth it forecast last spring, and lowered the 2015 forecast to 1.1% growth, from the spring forecast of 1.7% growth.  The EC cited the tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East along with a lack of investment as rationale for their forecast reduction.  The EC now also expects eurozone inflation to remain below the 2% targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB) until at least 2016.  The forecast is likely to boost expectations for stronger stimulus measures by the ECB.

-- The U.S. Labor Department reported the nation’s nonfarm employment grew a seasonally adjusted 214,000 in October. Since the start of the year, employers have added more than 220,000 workers on average each month, a pace last consistently maintained nearly a decade ago.  The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% last month.  That's the lowest level since 2008, and further suggests the U.S. labor market is strengthening.

-- A federal judge approved Detroit's Chapter 9 bankruptcy emergence plan as the city moved closer to the end of the nation's largest municipal bankruptcy case.  The city has been dealing with population loss (less revenue), spiraling debt, and rising pension and health-care costs.

Comments and contributions from Update no.672:

“SpaceShipTwo 'Feather' Tail System Deployed Prematurely: NTSB - NBC News.com”

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/virgin-voyage/spaceshiptwo-feather-tail-system-deployed-prematurely-ntsb-n239721 

My reply:

            Now, the challenge is why?  I do not know enough about the mechanics of the system to even suggest an answer.

            We shall continue to watch and listen.

 . . . Round two:

“Yes, me too, I don't know that vehicle well at all.  I did not even know what the feather system was.  I only know how to feather propellers.

“I've not seen too much communication from you, but was wondering your thoughts on the King Air B200 that went down last week at Wichita and struck the FSI structure.  As it so happens, a close friend, and former flight instructor of mine, happened to have had flown that same aircraft much in the early 2000's for a charter-135 outfit.  Small world.”

 . . . my reply to round two:

            Re: Virgin Galactic.  I understand the macro scale and physics of the Space Ship 2 tail feathering system, but I can only guess at the internal mechanics of the system.  Based on what we know so far, I suspect the crew’s interaction with the system and exactly how it operates are going to be key elements in the investigation and root cause determination.

            Re: Wichita KingAir.  They had to demolish the simulator bay at FSI-ICT to recover the wreckage.  Based on the facts we know so far, my guess . . . the solo pilot got distracted by one or more factors.  There are several critical mechanical factors we do not know, most important among those, did auto-feather function fully?  Without it, his OEO Vmc would increase significantly and could have been the decider in that flight regime.  Also, he may have been tempted by the adjacent (across the field) 01L/19R runway to get on the ground quickly.  I suspect they will sort this one out in comparatively short order.

 . . . Round three:

“Thanks for the reply.  I think you are right-on regarding SpaceShip Two (SS2). 

“On the B200 crash, I think you answered my question initially to a friend which was did the a/c have auto-feathering?   My guesses on day of crash was wondering (speculating of course), if the pilot could not feather the failed engine prop, or did not.  Other thing of course is mistaking the engine out or feathering wrong engine.  It's not the first time something like that happened.  Then maybe like you suggest, a too tight of turn to make a runway and accelerated stall/G-loading.  Normally, I'd think with his weights/weather/elevation, he should have been able to bring her around with no problem.  The King Air design, and especially a B200, has plenty of power in excess for those conditions.  Now had it been a MU-2, I might say it was just those kinds of deal where if a pilot(s) is not on-top of it quickly with just the right technique/skill, he may end up in a VMC rollover crash in a MU-2.”

 . . . my reply to round three:

            Re: B200-ICT.  The aircraft had auto-feather.  The question is, was it functional and armed?  And, did it function properly and promptly?  If auto-feather did fully function at the critical moment, as you note, there are still other trip wires.  If he inadvertently slowed below OEO Vmc, he would have insufficient control margins.  As you say, approach turn stall has snatched up more than a few pilots, and OEO would have aggravated the potential.  Yes, unless he had some unspecified cargo, and/or the possible CG shift of loose cargo, he should have had plenty of power and control on one engine.  It should have been relatively easy to handle.  I don’t know if that a/c had an FDR installed; I suspect not as it is not standard.  But, if the a/c was in 135 operations, perhaps it did; it would be most helpful in root cause determination.

 . . . Round four:

“I suppose the pilot did his prop-checks and all that before takeoff (we hope).   As to date, it sounds like a VMC rollover, but that is pure guessing on my part.

“Good point about a cargo/CG shift.  Don't think any FDR but do know they recovered a CVR.  As far as I know on that category aircraft in 135, you only need the CVR.”

 . . . my reply to round four:

            If he did not do his prop checks or other pre-takeoff checks, he would not be the first or the last to make that mistake.  Yes, the available publicly available information sure looks like a Vmc rollover to me, as well.  My point on the CG shift comment was simply that we do not know enough to eliminate some of the potential causes.  The experts will sort it out in due course.

            I’ve heard no hint that an FDR was installed or even might be installed.  It is just that it would have made the investigation easier.

Comment to the Blog:

“The election is indeed tomorrow, although some of us voted weeks ago. I hope the extreme negativity and the money issues do not discourage too many voters. By the next issue, we shall know more about the future.

“We have had a terrible week for space exploration and exploitation. I will raise the question of whether the United States government's abandoning of our lead in scientific matters in general and space/astronomy in particular contributed to these disasters of privatized efforts.

“If I read your paragraph correctly, a colleague or former colleague of yours lost his wife in the Beechcraft-Cessna crash. He and you have my condolences.

“I found it difficult to understand your point in regard to counterintelligence, J. Edgar Hoover, et al. If I understand correctly, you have learned that Hoover derived his power from a Presidential order that essentially overrode a Supreme Court ruling. That Hoover abused his power is neither news nor surprising. Where did you mean to go from there? Where did your discussion lead? We already know that you and I disagree about FISA and more broadly about the powers granted to the spy community, but that seems not to be your issue.”

My response to the Blog:

            Re: mid-term elections.  Indeed!  I suspect there shall be some surprises.  We shall see.

            Re: privatization.  I suspect it is a contributor.  The profit motive occasionally drives folks to make the wrong decisions.  It also drives innovation.  So, the challenge is finding the proper balance.  I do not concur with the opinion the USG has abandoned scientific matters.

            Thank you for your condolences.

            Re: counterintelligence.  My point was warrantless surveillance is not a new issue.  Just as President Bush (43) authorized warrantless surveillance in wartime, so had President Roosevelt 65 years earlier.  Yes, we have consistently disagreed on surveillance.  The issue before us is how do we enable intelligence-collection surveillance without being excessively restrictive or exposed to public disclosure.  We are still searching for the solution.

Another contribution:

“Didn’t know you had a ‘vote’ this week. Our newspapers don’t cover activities all over the world just I suspect yours don’t.

“I didn’t know about your Cessna accident either. Sorry to hear that my friend.

“Very interested to read your comments about the early FBI and J Edgar Hoover feathering his own nest. Or did I get that wrong?

“Nothing new on the LOMAS front here. I said I would keep a look out but nothing.

“My God Cap, what a dreadful world we live in. I cannot believe the horrors we hear about with these ISIS butchers. Has humanity advanced at all?  I have a stone age axe head, manmade, possibly 8000 years old, was that too used to kill another human?  Have we progressed at all in our frail human persona that we can still just butcher others, men, women, and children alike.

“It raises a very important response, what should the rest of us be doing about it?

“Can we really sit back with the occasional air attack against these monsters or do we need to pick up the cudgel that has been thrown to us.

“Is it the next challenge to humanity?”

My reply:

            Yep, tomorrow, Tuesday, 4.November, is mid-term Election Day for us.

            The Wichita accident should not have happened from my perspective, which if so, makes it all the more tragic.

            Re: surveillance.  You read it correctly.  President Bush (43) authorized warrantless surveillance in wartime, as President Roosevelt did 65 years earlier.  The best the rest of us can do is to remain vigilant and assist law enforcement to the best of our ability. 

            Re: ISIL (ISIS).  Their brutality under the guise of a mutation of a noble religion is obscene as it is extreme.  As with all sociopathic killers, they are not redeemable and thus must be exterminated – sooner rather than later.

            There will always be new challenges.  I am not perceptive enough to see the next one.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.

Cheers,

Cap                        :-)