16 February 2009

Update no.374

Update from the Heartland
No.374
9.2.09 – 15.2.09
Blog version: http://heartlandupdate.blogspot.com/
To all,
The follow-up news items:
-- The National Transportation Safety Board confirmed that multiple samples of bird remains removed from both CFM56-5B/P turbofan engines recovered from US Airways Flight 1549 [370] have been identified by the Smithsonian Institution's Feather Identification Laboratory as Canada Goose (Branta Canadensis). Adult birds can be 2-3 times the size of bird ingestion test specimens used to design and qualify large engines. From the available evidence so far, the airplane appears to have struck more than a few birds that took out both engines at virtually the same instant.
-- The international, private, security firm Blackwater [305, et al] has changed its name to Xe (pronounced ‘z’) in an effort to re-brand itself and removed its tarnished professional image. Let’s see how this works for them.

Monday evening, President Obama held his first prime-time news conference after taking a day-trip to Elkhart, Indiana – a community enduring a reported 15.3% unemployment rate (double the national average). The President continues to press and make the case for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan. Regardless of our political affiliation or affinity, I think we can all appreciate the President’s confidence, communications style & ability, and his energy. Some talking-heads suggest he is risking over-exposure by his unprecedented string of public events; I find it reassuring and refreshing. President Bush did not do enough public contact, so President Obama is a welcome change. We can and will argue about the details of the recovery plan, but all that aside, I am impressed with his delivery, tone and genuine efforts to embrace all citizens. The President also said, “Only government can fix this problem (the recession).” Doing nothing is indeed a viable option. The marketplace will sort things out, revalue obscenely over-valued real estate, lop off the dead wood in the banking sector, ad infinitum. It is only a matter of time and pain – this is the point. Heck, even during the Great Depression, unemployment was only 25%, which means 75% were gainfully employed. Today, we have 7.6% unemployed nationally; 92% of us still have jobs. As long as each of us is in the latter group, I suppose we are OK, but if we find ourselves in the former group, I imagine we will have a hard time finding optimism and comfort in natural marketplace corrections. To be frank, I do not believe the free market is any better at running things than the lawless Wild, Wild West was at maintaining the safety of citizens. A laissez-faire approach to the marketplace will yield essentially the same results – survival of the fittest, death and destruction; if we are lucky enough to be ignored, we might come out unscathed, but if not, life will be short and violent. I agree with the President; “Tax cuts alone can't solve all of our economic problems.” Tax cuts have no value or meaning to those who are now without jobs or income. However, tax cuts are the quickest way to put money in the hands of citizens. Please recall how long it took the Federal government to issue rebate checks [322] – months, not weeks or days. For those of us who feel no risk to what the economic future holds, tax cuts make a great deal of sense. For those of us who are worried about our jobs, who carry more debt than we should, who see the value of our homes decreasing, any funds from the government will go to reducing the risk we feel. Sure, as we pay down debt or increase our savings, money will be available to banks and will eventually make its way back into lending for mortgages and business. The President has set the course; let’s help him make it work.

POLL QUESTION
Monday, on the Senate floor during debate on the their version of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan, Senator Charles Ellis ‘Chuck’ Schumer of New York proclaimed, “And let me say this to all of the chattering class that so much focuses on those little, tiny, yes, porky amendments, the American people really don't care.” Well now . . . Chuckie is a vaunted U.S. senator, so he must know more than I do. My curiosity is peaked. Let us take a little poll and ask each of you – at least the American readers, since the rest of the world probably could care less – do you care not about “those little, tiny, porky amendments?” A simple yes or no will suffice. Of course, if you wish to add your opinion, by all means, please do so.

SIDE NOTE 1: In all the gibberish surrounding the stimulus plan, I hear a lot of what could only be called partisan political posturing among member of Congress, and at least what appears to be a bona fide, sincere, and largely unprecedented effort by the President to find consensus. I hear the President saying a lot of the things I would expect our leader to say. The Democrats in Congress are just making me angry with all their whining about not getting all their goodies. But, quite frankly, it is the Republicans who are attracting the focus of my strongest ire. They have coaxed the President into large tax cuts, but they continue to carry on about infrastructure spending and such. The Republicans are teetering on the precipice of what is beginning to appear as obstruction for the sake of obstruction and political gain. And, for any Republican, who just a few years ago was a busy little beaver packing legislation with earmark, pork-barrel spending, to be casting aspersions upon their Democratic colleagues who today are doing exactly the same things is quite like the pot calling the kettle black. Hypocrisy in the extreme! For any Republican in Congress, serving (and I use that word loosely) longer than two years, they had better abandon this faux-holier-than-thou attitude because it is far more odiferous than feces from a bull.

SIDE NOTE 2: Barack Obama claimed to have set in place guidance to open the Executive Branch . . . transparency has been the term he used. At the moment, my rub with the White House staff performance is at the irritant level, but my irritation could blossom into full-blown opposition, if he does kick some tushy soon and get things working. How did I get a burr under my saddle, you may ask? I try to keep up on Executive Orders, after all that is how much of the Executive business is done. The White House staff has not kept the website up-to-date. They have not numbered Executive Orders and Memoranda (a means of precision in citation). And, they have not responded to my eMail query as they implicitly stated they would. This is not a good sign. I have been waiting for one recent Executive Order, reported in the Press, but not yet posted . . . three weeks hence. Not good!

I am not quite sure what to think about the abrupt withdrawal of Judd Gregg for Secretary of Commerce in the new cabinet [373]. Gregg cited “irresolvable conflicts” with the Obama administration. Is he kidding us? Was this just some obscene political stunt? Given the parochial, partisan politics of our time, my cynical sector suspects a stunt meant to embarrass the President. In Senator Gregg’s post-withdrawal news conference, he said it was his failure, not the President’s fault. Yea verily! Even deeper into the cynical sector, this sounds like Republican operatives read Judd the riot-act, and he got the message. If true, and I have no evidence to say that it is, my level of disgust, revulsion and down-right nausea would reach unprecedented depths. I remind myself that my suspicion is just a gut-check hunch. I truly hope I am wrong. Nonetheless, the Gregg withdrawal a week after his nomination is not what the President or We, the People, needed right now.

We have a new standard for parental misconduct and medical malpractice – Nadya Suleman. The unemployed, unmarried woman gave birth to octuplets (8) on top of six other adolescent children (3 of which have special needs), all by In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), and she lives with her parents in a small 3-bedroom house and has no visible means of support. She already receives state assistance for her existing children. Suleman exceeded the number of children brought into the world by my previous example – a New York mother (and I use that term very loosely), addict, welfare recipient, who had eight children by seven different “fathers” [161]. Heck, at least Suleman had all 14 of her IVF children reportedly by the same sperm donor. Suleman has done a number of interviews in a lame attempt to rationalize her decisions to have 14 IVF children and convince us that love will conquer all. I get a sick feeling when I think of what is ahead for those hapless children. On top of the insanity of what she has done, the paucity of any discernible ethical standards by the doctor who impregnated her – Dr. Michael M. Kamrava – is even scarier than a foolish, ego-centric woman. I think the 2.3 children rule for zero population growth offers wisdom, rationality and stability. Further, the ability to support and the willingness to nurture, educate and coach children into becoming productive members of society are added criteria for parenthood. The conduct of Suleman-Kamrava makes a great case for the necessity of licensing procreation. My disapproval of what Suleman-Kamrava have done is amplified by my opinion that criminals are created by negligent, complacent, and/or abusive parents. One day, we will mature as a society and recognize the vital importance of childhood.

A contributor offered this independent opinion:
“I've been waiting to comment on this story [Suleman], because I was afraid I'd vomit on my keyboard if I thought about it before now.
“Honestly, this woman Suleman seems to be some strange symbol of our country, of the incredible freak show we have.
“Who on earth would want to be so selfish to bring so many children into this world, with uncertain futures (likely very poor ones)?
“Who would want to intentionally bring a child into our world without both mother and father?
“Even if there had been dual parents, great household finances to continuously and for the long-term--shelter, feed, provide health and dental care, provide attention, time, instruction, good parenting, and hopefully a solid education with college so they can find what could me limited employment in our future, the odds are that they would still have a dysfunctional family.
“When I saw this mother Suleman being interviewed (she is a pretty woman), I saw the most narcissistic individual I believe possible, for a long time. It is not about "love" as she claims, but being selfish and stupid, which is a sad combination in our society. I'm sure there are a bunch of other stupid (and selfish) women wanting to mimic Nadya Suleman. And there is a fad I am told, or many women without fathers, having sex with multiple partners so they become pregnant, and can be a trendy "single-mom" and of course qualify for the social/welfare benefits thrown at them and each new kid popped out. It used to be an embarrassment to have bastard children, now it is chic.
“But, she will get the book deals, paid for interviews, and some clowns writing her to ask to marry. This is after all, our freak show.
“And yes, why would any so-called doctors have assisted her in this effort? My conspiratorial tendencies (just an acute sense of awareness) would almost cause me to think she is some Frankenstein mother popping artificial but real babies out of her, to be used for some strange media event. I've entertained maybe CPS will come in soon and remove her children from her, and that will be a big media event, a potential social divider starting massive fights in the blogs.
“What give me hope, is I know there are still youngsters out there, planning their futures, getting an education, and they look at Nadya Suleman and seek the same freak show.”
Other opinions . . . all are welcome.

After the Miracle on the Hudson [370], we have the first fatal aircraft accident since Delta Connection Flight 5191 (Comair 5191) [27.8.2006; 247/8]. Continental Express Flight 3407 (Colgan 3407) – a De Havilland Canada (Bombardier) Dash 8 (DHC-8-402 Q400), twin turbo-prop – crashed at about 22:20 EST, in Clarence Center, New York, five miles from Buffalo-Niagara International Airport – the flight’s destination. Reports indicated 48 on board and 1 man on the ground were killed. Snow and ice were also reported in the area. Things went south pronto when the crew reconfigured for landing, and they were not able to recover. I suspect tail plane icing.

News from the economic front:
-- The California Department of Financial Institutions closed the County Bank of Merced (California). The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) became the bank’s receiver. This is 9th bank failure this year – 1.5 months into the year. Oh boy, what lies ahead?
-- Amazon.com announced a new version of its Kindle e-book reader, and the acquisition of a new work by best-selling novelist Stephen King that is to be offered exclusively on Kindle. I have not yet tried application. Has anyone tried Kindle?
-- Wall Street was not impressed with the announcement by Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner that the department intends to set up a public-private fund for toxic bank assets that could produce up to US$1T in financing capacity. In addition, Treasury will support the Federal Reserve as it expands the size of a key lending program by another US$1T. Geithner referred to what he called a “comprehensive housing program” as part of the banking crisis recovery effort. With all these trillions floating around, pretty soon we will have some serious money . . . well, actually not, since it’s all borrowed and printed.
-- Surprisingly, retail sales rose 1% in January from the previous month. Yet, retail sales were 9.7% below the year-earlier levels.
-- Jobless claims fell in the latest week, but remained near quarter-century highs above 600,000. However, total jobless claims lasting more than one week hit a fresh record – near the five-million level.
-- A Wall Street Journal forecasting survey of economists suggests we may realize growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the 3rd Quarter, although recovery is less likely in the second-half and more likely pushing into next year.
-- Data from the European Union's Eurostat statistics agency showed euro-zone GDP contracted by 1.5% from last quarter and by 1.2% on an annual basis – the biggest declines of both metrics on record. The decline was led by the biggest quarterly fall in German GDP for more than two decades.
-- Textron CEO Lewis Campbell told an investment conference on Tuesday that the corporation may have to sell either Cessna or Bell Helicopter. Apparently, the company requires US$1B in the first half to cover losses by its financial arm.
-- Reports indicated Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase have agreed to weeks-long moratortia on foreclosures as the government works on a financial stabilization plan that may include substantial resources for the contracting real estate market.
-- Congress passed the US$787B, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 [PL 111-xxx; H.R. 1; Senate: 60-38-0-1(0); House: 246-183-1-3(2)], which the President is expected to sign into law at a ceremony in Denver, Colorado, next Tuesday. While the final bill is not pork free as I had hoped, a goodly chunk of those programs I called porky were removed. The whining at both ends of the political spectrum suggests the President came close to a balanced bill – not perfect, not the best, but adequate. Also, based on a variety of sources and indicators, I suspect this is not the last of the government’s spending for recovery. For better or worse, the ARRP is what we have; now, let’s make it work.

L’Affaire Madoff [365]:
-- The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reached a partial settlement with Bernie Madoff in a civil case intended to recover assets on behalf bilked investors in his collapsed Ponzi scheme. I do not know but I suspect the SEC’s civil case was intended to freeze Madoff’s assets until the criminal case against him can be concluded . . . at least I hope that is what is intended.
-- Apparently, the SEC was not quick enough. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts William Francis Galvin filed a complaint against Ruth Madoff, 67, wife of Bernie Madoff, for withdrawing US$5.5M on November 25 and US$10M on December 10 (the day before her husband was arrested for securities fraud), from Cohmad Securities – a company co-owned by her husband. Can you say conspiracy? Some journalist asked, “Does Ruth Madoff need her own lawyer?” I would advise her to get a really good lawyer, or admit her culpability and pay her debt to society.
-- Federal prosecutors have begun interviewing Madoff's employees as the criminal investigation ramped up into how Madoff pulled off an alleged massive US$50B Ponzi scheme and who else may have been involved. I suspect wifey Ruth might be on the list now.

Rarely does a Supreme Court decision come along that so clearly illustrates the fragility of interpretation of constitutional law. Fourth Amendment cases attract my attention because they often exhibit the tension between individual rights and the State. The 4th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states: “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.” The key word for interpretation is “unreasonable.” A few weeks ago, the Supremes rendered their judgment in a narrow 5-4 ruling in just such a case – Herring v. United States [555 U.S. ___ (2009); no. 07-513]. Prima facie, this case is not particularly interesting from a detail standpoint in that a citizen – Bennie Dean Herring – who was “no stranger to law enforcement,” was found in possession of controlled substances and a pistol during a warranted search of his property – a violation of his parole. Some, perhaps most, may stop reading here; yep, this was a no brainer. After all, a convicted felon violated the State’s terms for his freedom, so what. I urge you to read on. The bench warrant for Herring, used for the search in this case, was for a failure to appear, which as noted by the Court, had been issued in error. The adjacent county court clerk failed to update the court’s warrant database regarding that error. Four months later, the police, acting in good-faith, at the individual level, but not at the systemic level, arrested Herring, searched his property, and discovered the contraband material. In the written decision, we were treated to an exposé of the inner-workings and hidden mechanisms of the Dale County, Alabama, warrant maintenance system – not particularly impressive. Bottom line, the Dale County warrant error was a genuine oversight – neglect rather than intentional misconduct. Chief Justice John Glover Roberts, Jr., writing for the majority, noted, “When a probable-cause determination was based on reasonable but mistaken assumptions, the person subjected to a search or seizure has not necessarily been the victim of a constitutional violation. The very phrase ‘probable cause’ confirms that the Fourth Amendment does not demand all possible precision.” El Jefe goes on to illuminate the balance of risk and benefit, obviously judging the State’s interests exceeded the individual’s (Herring’s) right to be protected from “unreasonable” search & seizure. We could again stop here, and shout a resounding “You betcha, yea verily!” Au contraire, mon ami. As is so often the case, the dissent’s opinion gives clarity. Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, writing for the dissenters, observed, “Inaccuracies in expansive, interconnected collections of electronic information raise grave concerns for individual liberty. ‘The offense to the dignity of the citizen who is arrested, handcuffed, and searched on a public street simply because some bureaucrat has failed to maintain an accurate computer data base’ is evocative of the use of general warrants that so outraged the authors of our Bill of Rights” (citing: Arizona v. Evans [514 U.S. 1 (1995)]; Stevens, dissenting). The legal issue at question was the Exclusionary Rule largely defined by Weeks v. United States [232 U.S. 383 (1914)], which holds that evidence collected in violation of a person’s constitutional rights may be inadmissible in court. Justice Ginsburg noted, “The exclusionary rule provides redress for Fourth Amendment violations by placing the government in the position it would have been in had there been no unconstitutional arrest and search.” In today’s world, government enjoys extraordinary reach, amplified by technology from DNA typing to cellphone location and incredible forensic analytical capability & capacity. By Herring, the Supremes have essentially said, the speed of electronics are OK for the police but not necessary for protection of an individual citizen’s most fundamental rights. I think Justice Ginsburg got it right on this one. The Judicial Branch is part of the government. Negligence or complacency by any portion of the government that violates any citizen’s constitutional rights, including a convicted felon who has done his time, is wrong and a further constriction of our freedom and our rights codified by our Constitution and body of law. This case is not about Bennie Herring; it is about you and me.

No comments or contributions from Update no.373.

My very best wishes to all. Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap :-)

2 comments:

Calvin R said...

I'm very surprised that airplane engines are tested on birds half the size of Canada geese. Canada geese are so plentiful as to be a nuisance here in Ohio. Who decided that they were no danger to aircraft?

"A rose by any other name would still smell as sweet." Blackwater by some other name still smells.

I follow the RV industry in a small way. In these times, the RV industry has essentially crashed. That industry centers on Elkhart, Indiana; hence the very high unemployment rate there.

"The marketplace will sort things out" asks me to trust the bonus babies who got us into this. No thanks.

I do share your resistance to panic, though. A sound percentage of us do indeed still have jobs, at least for this day. Those who don't have become a large enough group to bring me concern, but not panic.

As you and I have discussed elsewhere, I believe tax cuts combined with a hatred of regulation have put us into this mess; further tax cuts amount to throwing good money after bad unless there's something very different about this round.

Poll question: Yes, I believe that the stimulus bill carries considerable pork. No, it doesn't bother me any more than the Republican pork did, so long as there's some chance of creating jobs building people's pet projects and working on them.

I share your distaste for the political posturing. However, I dislike the Republican Party enough that I won't miss them if they manage to eliminate themselves from the scene by hanging on to the attitudes that cost them the election.

Regardless of party or posture, I'll believe that Washington has achieved transparency when I see it make the party in power uncomfortable.

I do not know enough of Judd Gregg to know whether he acted under pressure from his party or carried out some grudge of his own

I cannot account for Nadya Suleman without bringing some form of mental illness into the picture. No sane person would do that to fourteen innocent children. Her doctor, on the other hand, is simply greedy and unethical. Whichever government agency is billed for his work could appropriately sue to recover the money from him on ethical grounds.

I have not used the Kindle myself. The reviews are mixed; "better but not near perfection" is the most common tone. I have read a few ebooks on my laptop and attempted such reading on a PDA. I suspect that eventually the portability factor of ebooks will drain some market share from paper publishing, but the details remain unpredictable.

Calvin from Ohio

Cap Parlier said...

Calvin,
Any bird, chunk of ice, or debris can damage a turbine engine, since there is no way to protect the fan face. The design requirement is containment of the damage, i.e., do no collateral damage as a consequence. In the case of Flt 1549, the design worked perfectly (to the best of my knowledge). We have always relied on the very low probability of birds taking out both engines. This is the first time I’m aware of that birds took out both engines – all thrust.
Blackwater is a product of necessity. W & Rummie failed to increase the size of the combat forces to fight the War on Islamic Fascism. We still have a seriously undersized military for the present war. And, I doubt very much that Barack has the cojones to double or more properly triple the number of infantry divisions. Thus, USG contracted with several companies including Xe to do what the military should and normally would have done in a combat zone.
Unchecked greed got us into this mess, so I’m with you; we cannot trust CEO’s to do the correct thing. Likewise, apparently, we cannot trust lenders and borrowers to do the correct thing either
Well said, pork is pork, regardless of what party does it. I railed against Republican pork the last eight years, and I shall rail some more against Democratic pork. I am not so generous with our tax dollars. If a project is important enough to Federal funds, then it is important enough for public scrutiny. We can create jobs that contribute to the common good, but local pet projects like a water park, birth control, a peanut museum, and such are quite hard to justify when there are so many other “more important” projects like maintenance of the Interstate highway system, bridges, dams, electric grid, etc.
Great perspective re: Nadya Suleman. Her emotional problems, whatever they may be, will not be improved by having a small army of children. She will have to resort to compromising the privacy and childhood of those children in order to find some support, and I dare say, the State will have to pony up as well. I really like your idea. The State should send the bill to Dr. Kamrava for his misconduct & malpractice. If it bankrupts him, so be it. He chose to ignore ethics and morality; he should pay the price. Now that I’m riled up, let’s throw his butt in prison and seize all his assets to provide for those hapless chidren.
Thank you for your experience with eBooks. If you ever hear of anyone using Kindle, I’d like to hear a critique.
Thank you for your comments.
Cheers,
Cap