28 April 2014

Update no.645

Update from the Heartland
No.645
21.4.14 – 27.4.14
To all,

The big news this week, at least for lil’ol’ me out here on the Great Plains of this Grand Republic, I submitted my letter of resignation for retirement.  I will officially leave the corporate world on Friday, 2.May.2014.  Jeanne and I are both excited to move on to the next stage of our lives.  I will finally be able to write full time.  I will be working for myself from now on.  I am currently in the final editing process for my next book – The Clarity of Hindsight; The Words and Deeds of World War II – a history book decades in the making.  Following shortly behind Hindsight, Book III and Book IV of the To So Few series of historical novels are written and just need final editing.  Stay tuned, there is more to come.

A Putin affiliate evokes Hitler. The West should be worried”
Washington Post
Published: April 21 [2014]
While I agree with Cohen’s recitation of history in this instance, I believe he and most folks fail to recognize the overarching blueprint / playbook Hitler gave us in 1925 – Mein Kampf (My Fight).  Seven years before he became Deutsche Reichskanzler, Hitler told us in explicit detail exactly what he intended to do.  We had pretty good clues, validating his plan in progressively audacious actions from 1933 to the invasion of Poland in 1939.  While I may quibble a bit with the history, Cohen’s point is spot on!  The Migranyan position further fails prima facie in the light of Stalinist hegemony both prior to 1941 and certainly after 1945.  Arguably, Stalin killed more people than Hitler.  While Putin has not carried out (to public knowledge) the paranoid purges and pogroms of Josef Stalin, more than a few similarities persist in illuminating Putin’s actions.  Recent anti-Semitic papers add a very chilling punctuation to what is happening in Ukraine.  Migranyan’s attempt to rationalize Putin’s actions fails on numerous levels, not least of which is reflected in Cohen’s opinion.  What so many fail to acknowledge in these hegemonic rationalization debates is, if ethnic peoples are dissatisfied with the established government, they can and should immigrate to their affinity state rather than foment unrest or violence.  So, if ethnic Russians are unhappy in Ukraine, they should move to Russia, to live with others who think and act like them rather than encourage an aggressor to “defend” them.  That said, I hold no illusion as to who the instigator was in Crimea or in Eastern Ukraine.  The only question in my mind remains, where and when will the West draw the line to stop Putin’s hegemonic intimidation and intent?  I can appreciate the Russian apprehension regarding threats or enemies at its doorstep.  Russian history is replete with examples of misplaced trust and tragic suffering as a consequence of invasion.  Heck, the Soviet Union agreed to and signed pacts with the Germans on 23.August.1939 – the Treaty of Non-aggression between Germany and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that divided up Poland and green lighted Soviet domination of the Baltic states – and, on 11.February.1940, the German-Soviet Commercial Agreement.  The German deception was so thorough and convincing that Stalin disbelieved and ignored the mounting intelligence warning of German offensive intent, only to be confronted with the invasion on 22.June.1941 that came within a hair’s breadth of taking Moscow and Stalingrad. Even more amazing in that event, it took days for Stalin to believe his commanders at the dissolving front that Germany had actually attacked the Soviet Union.  I suppose we should recognize the societal paranoia of Russians.  We can only hope that someday a generation of Russians will grow up to accept their strength and not see enemies in every crack and crevice.

I choose to read judicial rulings, old and new, high and low, out of an integral curiosity about living, the law and governance in this Grand Republic.  I usually learn about our history and our laws from these judicial pronouncements.  The process helps me formulate opinions on a wide variety of topics.  It is not often I am depressed by my curiosity.  That said, I must confess one of those rare episodes upon reading McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission [570 U.S. ___ (2014); no. 12-536] – the Supremes’ latest decision regarding political donations.  The focused, singular question at issue in the McCutcheon case is the aggregate limit on donation imposed by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) {AKA McCain–Feingold Act, or Shays-Meehan}[PL 107-155; 116 Stat. 81; 27.3.2002], as an amended to Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) [PL 92–225; 86 Stat. 3; 7.2.1972].  Chief Justice Roberts wrote for the 5-4 majority, as he observed, “If the First Amendment protects flag burning, funeral protests, and Nazi parades--despite the profound offense such spectacles cause--it surely protects political campaign speech despite popular opposition.”  He added, “At that point, the limits deny the individual all ability to exercise his expressive and associational rights by contributing to someone who will advocate for his policy preferences. A donor must limit the number of candidates he supports, and may have to choose which of several policy concerns he will advance--clear First Amendment harms that the dissent never acknowledges.”  Roberts added, “Moreover, while preventing corruption or its appearance is a legitimate objective, Congress may target only a specific type of corruption – ‘quid pro quo’ corruption.  Spending large sums of money in connection with elections, but not in connection with an effort to control the exercise of an officeholder's official duties, does not give rise to such quid pro quo corruption. Nor does the possibility that an individual who spends large sums may garner ‘influence over or access to’ elected officials or political parties.”  The Chief Justice concluded, “For the reasons set forth, we conclude that the aggregate limits on contributions do not further the only governmental interest this Court accepted as legitimate in Buckley. They instead intrude without justification on a citizen's ability to exercise ‘the most fundamental First Amendment activities.’ {Buckley v. Valeo [424 U.S. 1 (1976)]}.”  Not surprisingly, the concurring opinion of Associate Justice Thomas supported the Court’s judgment, as he disagreed with the extent; he believed all restrictions on campaign donations should be removed.  Associate Justice Breyer wrote for the dissent and went directly to the point, “Taken together with Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission [558 U.S. 310 (2010)], today's decision eviscerates our Nation's campaign finance laws, leaving a remnant incapable of dealing with the grave problems of democratic legitimacy that those laws were intended to resolve.”   Justice Breyer concluded, “The result, as I said at the outset, is a decision that substitutes judges' understandings of how the political process works for the understanding of Congress; that fails to recognize the difference between influence resting upon public opinion and influence bought by money alone; that overturns key precedent; that creates huge loopholes in the law; and that undermines, perhaps devastates, what remains of campaign finance reform.”
            To be blunt and perhaps rather crass, Chief Justice Roberts’ majority opinion seems to discount, i.e., nearly ignore, the history and pervasive, corrupting influence of money, as if he is quite content existing in the crystal palace of purity, unencumbered by reality or practicality.  They see money and the process of donating money to political candidates in a rather sterile, naïve manner.  Soft money, hard money, who cares?  It is all potentially corrupting of the political process.  Citizens United brought to sharp focus numerous unsettling aspects of the thinking of the current bench of Supreme Court justices.  The majority of the Supremes have convinced themselves that corporations are citizens and money is speech, so we can only imagine what is next.
            As I read the ruling, the image that kept creeping into my consciousness is the game of whack-a-mole.  Chasing money is never easy.  What all of the vaunted Supremes missed here is the public versus private aspect of this issue.  Flag burning, protests & parades, and even speech itself are public events; giving money to a candidate is a very private & clandestine action.  Further, the collateral consequences of that “giving” sets up a quid pro quo that is likewise largely hidden from public scrutiny.  When private or perhaps clandestine intention is attached, the task becomes virtually impossible.  Congress has made numerous attempts to reduce the corruptibility of vast amounts of money from 1907 to 2002.
            What is the difference between a bribe and a donation?  I say, intention – a personal and private attribute.  The dissent offer three examples of grotesque circumvention of political campaign donation laws, albeit eviscerated by Citizens United and now McCutcheon.  Given the bent of the Roberts Court, perhaps the best we can possibly hope for is refinement and/or reform of the surviving laws.  My suggestion: repeal all existing, surviving, campaign finance or donation laws, so that there are no limits, caps, thresholds or other restrictions other than every contributor (individual, business or organization) publicly disclose ALL contributions in money or otherwise.  We should make it federal law, so that political donations of any form must be “cleared” by or through the Federal Election Commission (FEC), declared on federal tax returns, both individual and business, and excluded from business expenses of any form, so that political donations cannot be claimed as an expense against revenue, thus make all taxpayers cover his donations. The current FEC donor files are antiquated and of little value, as they are far too segmented and not linked; plus, they cover only individual donations.  I suggest we make a public, federal, searchable database that connects donations greater than a threshold, perhaps US$100 per donor, per candidate (or political entity), such that anyone can query the database by donor, by candidate, or any other relevant metric.  Further, political action committees in any form should be segregated and excluded from 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status and placed into a new category of political organization that must report all income and expenses to be correlated with the Internal Revenue Service and FEC databases.  At least in making political contributions public, we would stand some modicum of chance at illuminating conflict of interest as well as graft and other forms of corruption.  I think we can all recognize the difficulty for Congress to make donations public; they might want to make everyone else’s donations public but not theirs, but somehow we must demand they overcome their natural reticence with the objective of making corruption more difficult to attain.
            I absolutely agree that a wealthy citizen’s freedom of speech and political affiliation is protected by the Constitution, and that his freedom of speech must not be hampered or infringed upon more than a poor citizen – no more, no less.  Where I diverge from the Supremes’ reasoning hangs upon the “advantage” of wealth to amplify any particular citizen’s voice.  Ideally, our individual political voice is infused with our vote; thus, a rich man’s vote should be inherently equal to a poor man’s vote.  While the philosophical equality is explicit in the preamble of the Declaration of Independence and NOT in the Constitution, any historian can circumscribe an argument that Jefferson’s words of equality did NOT truly mean equality, i.e., “. . . all men are created equal . . .” did not mean all human beings or even all citizens; since at those days, only landed, educated, free males were considered “men.”  We have taken a far more broad, inclusive interpretation of those immortal words, and thus the meaning of the Declaration and implicitly the Constitution.
            Just a personal footnote: technology has enabled and strengthened our capacity as citizens.  Just a decade or two ago, citizens did not have access to legislation in progress or the laws as enacted or modified.  We would have to have some form of knowledge of legislation and request a copy from our representative; and even then, if we received a response at all, it would take weeks or months to fulfill.  Even our public libraries did not have law books.  Today, we can read and assess for legislation and laws ourselves.  Openness and access has enhanced our citizenship.  The same openness can reduce the likelihood of corruption.  As Justice Brandeis so succinctly said, “sunlight is the best disinfectant.”  So, let us shine a very bright light on the money and remain vigilant for laws that favor big donors.  Equal is equal in my mind.

News from the economic front:
-- According to the Wall Street Journal, Amazon is reportedly testing its own delivery network to cover the final leg of a package's journey to consumers' doorsteps – “the last mile,” the holy grail of e-commerce: same-day shipping.
-- Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered Russia’s credit rating one level from BBB to BBB-minus – one level above junk status – and kept its outlook on the country negative.  S&P cited heightened tensions with Ukraine and the prospect of economic sanctions. In their public statement, S&P said, “In our view, the tense geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine could see additional significant outflows of both foreign and domestic capital from the Russian economy and hence further undermine already weakening growth prospects.”

Comments and contributions from Update no.644:
Comment to the Blog:
“Even as the Russian government looks more and more as if it follows the usual strongman strategy of growing by taking over the neighbors, you throw a monkey wrench into that picture by mentioning “embarrassing defections of troops to the rebel cause.” Once again, this seems a bit more complex than the usual domination by the strong. The refusal of the pro-Russian rebels to abide by Russia's truce agreement adds to the weirdness.
“Incidentally, the concept “hell bent upon creating enemies to focus and amplify nationalist juices among believers and suppress voices of dissent” also fits the US government for most of this century.
“I agree with Mr. Pitts' analysis. The flow of huge amounts of money into political parties and campaigns has come very close to eliminating the representative republic designed in the Constitution. Let's hope it's not too late.
“The immediate cause of the Korean ferry disaster is known. The real question is how that came about.”
My response to the Blog:
            Re: Ukraine.  I do not see the incongruity.  I imagine the defectors are ethnic Russians and most likely recognize Russia as the stronger nation as well as most likely to succeed . . . not particularly different from the loyalist colonists during the American Revolution . . . except the stronger nation lost.
            Re: “hell bent.”  My apologies, I do not and cannot think of any instances the U.S. responded or acted in such a manner.  An example or two would be quite helpful.
            Re: Pitts’ opinion.  Indeed!  I share your hope.
            Re: Korean ferry disaster.  OK.  What is the root cause?  My observation was supposition based on public information that has not been validated or verified.  I am not confident we have sufficient information to determine root cause.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

21 April 2014

Update no.644

Update from the Heartland
No.644
14.4.14 – 20.4.14
To all,

The follow-up news items:
-- I will not be among those congratulating the Washington Post and The Guardian for their joint Pulitzer Prize (Public Service) for their respective reporting on the betrayal by that fugitive in Russia [599 & sub].
-- It seem Uncle Vlad has continued his retrogression with his use of the term Novorossiya, which means New Russia.  The term has its origins centuries ago, and appears to reflect his intension to occupy and annex the eastern and southern provinces of Ukraine, removing all of Ukraine’s Black Sea access.  Further complicating the situation, Ukrainian military forces sent in to reclaim government facilities and regain control of the provincial governments suffered embarrassing defections of troops to the rebel cause [640 & sub].  We also learned that a week ago Saturday, the USS Donald Cook (DDG-75) on patrol in the Black Sea was buzzed at least 12 times by a Russian Su-24 Fencer attack aircraft.  The Russian aircraft appeared to be unarmed.  Another jet loitered far enough away to prevent identification.  The Cook is an Arliegh Burke class, guided missile destroyer equipped with the AN/SPY-1D 3D RADAR system, and is configured as part of the national ballistic missile defense system.  I hope the ship’s Rules of Engagement (RoE) allowed the crew to light-up the intruder with the RADAR, so that he knew he was being targeted.  Further, I hope the RoE allowed the captain to spin-up several, SM-3 Standard Missiles and go “weapons free” to respond immediately, if the intruder had made even the slightest offensive move beyond his already provocative low-altitude, high-speed approach to the American warship on patrol in international waters.  Like so many dictators before him, Putin seems to be hell-bent upon creating enemies to focus and amplify nationalistic juices among the believers and suppress the voices of dissent.  In the Putin instance, I suspect he trying to resurrect the heyday glory of the Stalinist Soviet Union.  Former occupied dominions of the Soviet Union are rightly apprehensive and attentive to Russian actions in Ukraine.

Leonard Pitts gives us another insightful opinion:
“Money in politics undermining nation”
by Leonard Pitts Jr. – Miami Herald
Wichita Eagle
Published: Monday, April 14, 2014, at 12 a.m.
I am into my reading of the Supremes’ McCutcheon decision [642], but not yet finished.  Pitts certainly expresses my views of the controversial ruling, based on Press reports so far.  I suppose the Supremes are telling us that money is the new royalty, and we should accept it like happy, little, ignorant campers.

The ferry disaster playing out in the southwest seas of the Republic of Korea reminds us that physics is physics.  Based on Press reports so far, this appears to be a load shift, center of gravity accident similar to the National Air Cargo Flight NCR-102 accident at Bagram air base, Kabul, Afghanistan [594, 29.4.2013].  Buoyancy and trim for a ship are quite similar to lift and trim for an aircraft.  The publicly available information indicates the ferry was in the designated channel and made a sharp turn, which most likely shifted the automobiles and/or cargo to a point beyond the trim capacity of the ship.  The real tragedy in this accident is not the loss of the ship, rather the terrible loss of life as the crew misjudged the seriousness of their situation, when they advised passengers to stay put, instead of moving to their evacuation stations. 

News from the economic front:
-- The National Bureau of Statistics for the People’s Republic of China reported the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 7.4% in 1Q2014, down from 7.7% in 4Q2013 – still, better than the western economies including the United States.

Comments and contributions from Update no.643:
Comment to the Blog:
“The Asiana crash is much more your bailiwick than mine, but I agree that humans bear final responsibility for any given flight. That said, responsibility is not an either/or issue very often. If the automation was in fact flawed in ways the pilots could not have noted and corrected, there may well be some share of responsibility for the manufacturer.
“The saga of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 continues. As an outsider with no aviation background I will await further evidence and expert opinion before coming to any conclusion. The obvious question at present is the lack of surface debris assuming the search location is indeed appropriate, but any real evidence will come if and when some wreckage is recovered. Eventually we may know more.
“The Ukraine versus Russia situation is indeed showing a pattern, as you stated. We shall see where this leads.
“Senator Feinstein shows considerable courage in taking on the CIA. I think we may expect a scandal, real or manufactured, to erupt around her soon. It may not be handled well on the CIA end; they have a track record back through the Cold War of fumbling. Her response to that scandal and that of the voters will determine the outcome of this conflict. In the meantime, the incident supports my contention that secrecy has become essentially impossible, whether or not ethics and other considerations make one wish for it. That will drive some sort of changes in society that I cannot predict.”
My response to the Blog:
            Re: Asiana OZ-214.  All pilots are taught to disconnect the autopilot and fly by hand, if the autopilot is doing something unexpected.  In the OZ-214 case, they disconnected the autopilot, but allowed the autothrottle system to remain engaged, expecting it to maintain speed.  Airspeed and altitude are two of the most basic, primary instruments in every pilots scan.  Plus, on a B777, there are numerous other physical, visual and audible cues regarding especially airspeed and altitude.  Those pilots got way behind the airplane, which is a position no pilot can afford to be.  As I recalled the initial investigation, no anomalies, abnormalities or malfunctions of any part of the supporting systems could be identified.
            Re: Malaysian MH-370.  There are several scenarios that could eliminate surface debris; I offered one last week.  Until there is more evidence, it is all speculation.
            Re: Ukraine v. Russia.  Indeed!
            Re: Feinstein v. CIA.  Yes, I would agree in part.  However, both sides appear to have some culpability in this dust-up.  Citizens have betrayed this Grand Republic since the Revolution from Benedict Arnold to that fugitive in Russia.  In 1940, a young cipher clerk in the U.S. Embassy in London named Tyler Kent, stole deciphered messages between Churchill & Roosevelt (among other important documents) and gave them to the Germans in a misguided & naïve effort to prevent what he perceived as the U.S. entry into the war. 

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

14 April 2014

Update no.643

Update from the Heartland
No.643
7.4.14 – 13.4.14
To all,

The follow-up news items:
-- Dutifully reporting the information they are given . . .
“Asiana And Boeing Spar Over Flight 214 Crash Cause”
by John Croft
Aviation Week & Space Technology
Published: April 07, 2014
As I suppose must be expected, Asiana Airlines is trying to foist some of the culpability for the Flight 214 accident [604] at San Francisco International Airport last year, onto Boeing, the designer and manufacturer of the aircraft involved.  The problem I have with Asiana’s claim rests with their apparent insistence upon abdication of the pilot’s paramount responsibility – fly the airplane, first, foremost and ultimately.  Automation is provided to assist the pilot, not supersede him.  It does not matter what autopilot or autothrottle mode they were in or they selected, the pilot must continuously insure the automation he has chosen to utilize for any particular flight segment is in fact performing as intended.  Clearly, without a smidgen of doubt, the OZ-214 pilots failed to perform their most basic and fundamental duties.  That said, we may have an ancillary factor involved with respect to Asiana management setting up their pilots for this kind of accident with particular instructions or guidance to their cockpit crews regarding how they were to fly a visual approach; if so, Asiana’s continued tussle with the NTSB will not serve them well.  Me thinkst thou does protest too much!
-- The search for Malaysian Flight 370 [638 & sub] continues with some apparent progress by more detection events of the distinct, underwater locator beacon signal, a 10ms pulse every second at a 37.5 kHz pulse frequency.  The last detection was nearly a week ago.  I suspect this is the best they are going to get, as the expected beacon battery life has expired.  The next step should be a painstakingly slow bottom search of the suspected area.  Yet, among the many persistent questions, why is there no surface debris field?  Usually, aircraft that crash into water break-up upon impact, which allows the floaty stuff to stay or reach the surface.  Well, there could be several potential answers.  Given other data regarding the flight of MH370, I suspect the most likely is a controlled ditching.  Open ocean ditching is not a simple or easy task, but it is possible for a skilled pilot.  In a controlled ditching, especially with no attempt at egress, the aircraft would have a high likelihood of remaining essentially intact, thus no surface debris.  I believe they will eventually find the aircraft.  However, the process could take several years, as it did with Air France 447 [391, 493].
-- The situation in the eastern provinces of Ukraine continue to deteriorate [640 & sub], as Russian special forces in unmarked uniforms press their attacks on Ukrainian government facilities.  Gunfire has been reported in numerous eastern cities.  Russian main assault forces remain staged at the border.  Now, the Ukrainians have ordered their mobilization of their military, which suggests they are heading to war.
            The unfolding events indicate Putin intends to utilize the successful tactics of Crimea, with an objective of annexing the eastern provinces of the Ukraine, under the same guise of “protecting” ethnic Russian inhabitants in those areas.  The Russians have a long history of successful subterfuge operations to achieve or maintain their objectives.  Putin certainly recognizes the West is virtually impotent to stop him.  I’m afraid Putin’s megalomania will spread until he is satisfied or stopped.  None of us have any inkling of where that boundary may lay.
-- Senator Feinstein takes her case to the public domain.
“Why the Senate report on the CIA’s interrogation program should be made public”
by Dianne Feinstein and Jay Rockefeller
Washington Post
Published: April 10 [2014]
The report at issue here is the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report on the CIA Detention and Interrogation Program [642], specifically regarding the CIA’s use of secret detention centers, the rendition process, and Enhanced Interrogation Techniques (EIT) [381, 416, 548] in support of waging war successfully during the War on Islamic Fascism..  The senators said, “We believe that public release is the best way to ensure that this program of secret detention and coercive interrogation never happens again.”  I shall respectfully disagree, and I trust the President will see the larger picture.  The declassification request might have carried a little more weight if Committee Vice Chairman Senator Clarence Saxby Chambliss of Georgia co-authored the opinion column.  Regardless of the apparent, political, partisanship underpinnings of this effort, there can be no justification for the apparent CIA penetration of the Committee’s computers [639].  I guess public disclosure of classified material is OK for that fugitive in Russia, then what the hell, why not for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence!  Screw it!  Let us make everything public that way we lessen this damnable political posturing and haggling over leverage for the next election.  After all, political domination of one party or the other is far more important than waging war successfully.

Continuation from Update no.641:
“I do not understand your use of the term “generous” in my seeking to attribute rational motives to President Putin's Crimean actions. I seek accuracy in my understanding, not a source for a blame game. We cannot read minds but we can look for logical reasons someone would commit one action rather than another. Replacing logic with emotion just leads to trouble.
“There is an implicit threat to Russia's Black Sea access in a Ukrainian turn to the West. The Russians have no reason to expect that Ukraine would not treat them unfairly if Russia becomes less important to their economy. Leases and “other legal documents” such as treaties are often invalidated when times change. That is history, not speculation. Americans should know that based on our own history with Native Americans. We continue in that pattern, freezing assets of entire nations, using blockades and otherwise deciding that past commitments no longer apply. Other nations use the same tools.
“The change of Crimean official status in 1954 was, at that time, rather like a decision that counties in the US belong in one State rather than another. It might have been a nuisance, but Moscow ruled the entire USSR. When the USSR broke up, that quickly became a different issue. The comparison to South Texas makes a very poor analogy for reasons I already gave. The Crimean attachment to Russia cannot be considered “long dormant,” any more than the rest of the Ukrainian nation's distaste for Russia can be seen that way.”
My reply:
            Re: Putin.  Rationale depends directly upon perspective.  I have no doubt Adolf Hitler truly believed his decisions were very rational.  I can understand Putin’s motives.  I simply believe they are megalomaniacal, egocentric, and otherwise destabilizing to world peace.  Hey, other than that, I suspect he is convinced he is doing what is best for Russia; screw everyone else.
            Re: implicit threat.  I imagine Putin does think like that, as a product of Soviet KGB indoctrination.  I would agree with his perception, if this was 1950; but, it is not.  The West had the perfect time to strike Russia in the post-collapse, early 90’s.  Yet, we did not strike; we extended our hand to help Russia recover and transform.  That is hardly threatening.  The Russian military is far stronger than it was in 1992.  They do not need to occupy their neighbors to protect their security . . . any more than we would need to occupy Mexico or Canada for our security.  The sanctions so far imposed upon Russia were against individuals, not against the nation, contrary to what was done against the IRI.
            Re: Crimea.  True.  Further, when the USSR broke up in 1991, Crimea was part of Ukraine SSR, and thus became part of the Republic of Ukraine.  It was not part of Russia.  My analogy is a comparative tool, not a reflection of pending action; it is purely hypothetical for discussion purposes.  Bottom line: the Russian occupation and annexation of Crimea is not justifiable, except in Putin’s mind.

Comments and contributions from Update no.642:
Comment to the Blog:
“I heartily agree on the worthiness of Beethoven. His work has proven worthy of any audience.
“In reference to your statement on Flight MH 370, the phrase “highly evolved monkeys” is usually used to apply to human beings generally, not to single out any particular group. I believe the point of the comment Mr. Wise made is that perfect aviation accident prevention is beyond the capacity of any human. He phrased it poorly, both because he was certain to offend people in aviation and because it misinterprets evolution.
“You focus on the source of that report on the CIA; I focus on the content. Apparently the CIA has consistently lied to Congress in order to protect its brutal low-yield methodology. Perhaps they do this for fun. If so, only a skilled psychologist is qualified to discuss this. I am more interested in reports that former Vice President Richard Chaney says he has no objection to water boarding. However, he turned down the chance to experience it. If that method produces high value information, I would like to see it used on him. We could then prosecute him.
“Cal Thomas has once again distorted both religion and morality. When he began with the quote, “Give to Caesar what is Caesar's,” I fully and reasonably expected him to advocate that Hobby Lobby follow the law in anything that did not affect their own practice of their religion. He disappointed me yet again. Mr. Thomas courts the wrath of his God by misusing his religion this way.
“I believe the current Supreme Court took leave of its senses by the time it made the Citizens United decision. The McCutcheon ruling supports that conclusion.
“General Motors might be about to pay a high and appropriate price for its delays and secrecy regarding the ignition switch issue. While I understand the malfunction in not assigning a new part number to the revised part in question, the phrase “configuration management” carries no meaning to me. Please advise. Incidentally, I might not be the only one wondering whether the timing of Mary Barra's promotion allowed someone else to escape scrutiny.
My response to the Blog:
           Re: “highly evolved monkeys.”  At best, Wise’s comment was ill-advised and displayed a profound ignorance regarding the work of pilots.  He offered no solution.  Automation is NOT the answer, either.  Until HAL 9000 or his brethren become reality, no set of computers can outperform a well-trained, human pilot . . . and even HAL made a mistake.  That said, I was involved in developing specific automation software in the 1980’s for recovery of a single-seat aircraft in the event of pilot incapacitation (for any reason); we demonstrated that it worked.  I will freely admit there is more we can do to protect the aircraft in the event of pilot compromise, or better track the aircraft even in a major malfunction.  If there is anything good that comes from MH370, perhaps it will be better tracking systems to at least locate a crashed aircraft quickly.
            Re: Senate CIA EIT report.  I believe you misunderstood my comments.  Likewise, I am focused on the contents . . . if we ever get to see the contents.  We should not continue our previous, fruitless debate.  Your perspective is hardened, as apparently mine is as well.
            Re: Cal Thomas.  Good point.  He implied that God commands voters elect a Republican president and congress in 2016.  His reasoning is PRECISELY why religion must be removed from secular governance and political debate.  Agreed; God is not on his side.
            Re: McCutcheon.  I shall withhold by opinion until I have read the decision.  Based on the Press reporting on McCutcheon, I suspect you are correct.
            Re: General Motors.  High price, indeed! 
            Re: Configuration Management is a process by which we maintain a clear definition of the detailed design of anything . . . in my profession, aircraft.  It entails strict approval and identification of the original design as well as EVERY subsequent change to include the reason for the change, so that an affected, suspect lot can be readily and clearly established when something goes wrong.
            Re: Barra promotion.  Interesting question.  I had not thought of that aspect, but it does make sense, actually.
. . . follow-up comment:
“Thank you for the clear definition of configuration management. What I know from news reports suggests that configuration management works well in aircraft but less so in automotive design. For current examples, contrast the general industry information regarding the precise design and capacity of the aircraft used for Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 to GM's difficulties over what should have been a minor change to a small part of the ignition system. In fairness to them, they are not alone (see Toyata's current massive recall) nor are they the first. We can go back at least to the Ford Pinto fuel tank for precedents. Perhaps regulation could have prevented or mitigated this.”
 . . . my follow-up response:
            As always, you are most welcome.  Configuration Management principles apply to any object from a child’s toy to a space vehicle.  I do not know about the inner workings of the automotive industry, but their failure to apply good configuration management principles is their choice, not some endemic process.  We argue that configuration management is an essential discipline for safety of flight of passengers and crew.  That same argument can and should be made for any vehicle or device that affects public safety.  The GM ignition switch would apply.  Conversely, such regulation for the automotive industry would add cost.  I imagine they have and will continue to argue the cost-benefit ratio is too small to justify the expense.  We shall see.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

07 April 2014

Update no.642

Update from the Heartland
No.642
31.3.14 – 6.4.14
To all,

Life is good!  Sunday, Jeanne and I enjoyed a matinee performance by the Wichita Symphony Orchestra and Choir, followed by a delightful supper.  No matter how many times I listen to Ludwig van Beethoven’s Symphony No.9, I am awestruck by the magnificence of what I believe is the greatest piece of music ever written.  First performed in 1824 Vienna, Austria, the music evokes the glory of life itself.  Regardless of whether anyone enjoys classical music, Beethoven’s epic 9th Symphony should be a wonder of the world like the Grand Canyon, or the Great Wall of China, to be experienced by everyone, as part of our short stay on God’s little green earth.

The follow-up news items:
-- The Flight MH370 [638-41] investigation gets curious’er and curious’er.  Late last week, a PRC coastal patrol ship reported detecting the 31.5 KHz “ping,” presumably from the aircraft Flight Data Recorder (FDR) at an Indian Ocean location north of the recent search areas west of Perth, Australia.  Various precision search ships have been dispatched to the Chinese location of the detected signal.  The conditions reported by the Chinese are suspect . . . sorta like wishful thinking to me.  Until the pinger signal is confirmed by independent sources, I doubt the Chinese report.  Yet, as we aviators say, better lucky than good.  Then, I heard CNN Aviation Analyst Jeff Wise say that if we want to get to zero accidents, we must go beyond a “highly evolved monkey” in the cockpit.  It is quite understandable why professional pilots take offense at such a narrow, shallow view of what the guys who wiggle the sticks do on every flight they fly.  Yes, pilots have been known to make mistakes.  I can cite more than a few examples, not least of which I would note Continental 3407 [374], Air France 447 [391], and Asiana 214 [604].  I can also point to many lives saved by the extraordinary skill and ingenuity of pilots –United 232 [19.7.1989] and USAirways 1549 [370]; I do not know of any machine that could have handled those events and saved all those lives.  A highly evolved monkey . . . really?

Here is a rich one!
“CIA misled on interrogation program, Senate report says”
by Greg Miller, Adam Goldman and Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post
Published: March 31 [2014]
The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence voted 11-3 to declassify and make public the Committee’s five-year study of the CIA Detention and Interrogation Program, or perhaps the 400-page executive summary of the 6,000-page report.  The Committee’s recommendation has gone to the President, who ultimately must order declassification the source data utilized by the committee.  Press reports like this one drive me simple bat sh*t crazy.  I assume from their words that one or more of these “reporters” have actually seen the report or portions of it.  Anything else is rumor and hearsay no matter the source.  Regardless, just discussing classified material with the Press is a federal felony.  In the contemporary vernacular, WTF!  I am outraged that “current and former U.S. officials” would betray their country.  Just like that fugitive in Russia, these “officials” chose to go public by going to the Press with sensitive classified material.  I expect the President to withhold his approval or to order serious redaction of the documents to be made public.  If any portion of the report is eventually made public, I will do my best to digest the contents, as enhanced interrogation techniques have been a major topic of debate in this humble forum.  Lastly, perhaps “they” were the Greatest Generation because those who were even remotely aware of Unit P.O. Box 1138 did not disclose the existence of the specialized interrogation unit or its products until they were declassified and made public 50 years hence.  There is a lesson in that history.

Another trigger for me . . . this one . . . an opinion column.
 “Government has crossed the church-state line”
by Cal Thomas
Tribune Content Agency
Wichita Eagle
Published Wednesday, April 2, 2014, at 12 a.m.
Cal opens his opinion by quoting Mark 12:17 – my words: “Render unto Caesar that which belongs to Caesar, and render unto God that which belongs to God.”  In quoting scripture, dear ol’ Cal is arguing the Hobby Lobby case that before the Supreme Court, specifically regarding Freedom of Religion; in this instance, whether the chief executive of Hobby Lobby can deny employee medical insurance coverage for processes he objects to on religious grounds.  Cal concluded, “Caesar needs to get back on his side of the church-state line.”  Therein lies the rub; where is that line?  As I started Cal’s opinion, I imagined he was going to argue that everything belongs to God, meaning there is no line as the state is subservient to God.  This is usually the argument offered by devoutly, fundamentalist, religious people.  Then, he got to his real point.  “That’s going to take a Republican Congress and a Republican president with courage and a new health insurance plan to repeal Obamacare [PPACA] and start over with real reforms that protect religious believers and enhance health care.”  To say the least, I fundamentally disagree with Cal Thomas.  Concomitantly, I will repeat my acknowledgment of the difficulty in establishing the church-state line.  To me, the operation of a business is a public process, as it affects other citizens in one form or another.  Yet, as has been argued in this humble forum, the Freedom of Religion can be and has been argued on an expansive as opposed to a narrow perspective.  I will continue to argue the “wall of separation” exists at the individual consciousness level.  The domain of religion is the individual soul – the choices made to live their lives.  The domain of the state is the public environment.  Further, the owner of a business is operating as an officer of the business, not as an individual; there is a distinct difference.  Thus, the decision to use any medical process rests at the private individual level, not the corporate level.  I expect the Supremes to reject the appeal of Hobby Lobby, and, we may have to wait until June to hear their judgment in this case.

The Supremes did it, again.  They issued their ruling in the case of McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission [570 U.S. ___ (2014); no. 12-536].  Press reports suggest the Supreme Court decision further removes restraints on donations for political purposes – corruption from my perspective.  Apparently, the Court sustained its premise established in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission [558 U.S. 310 (2010); 21.1.2010] [424].  I have several book projects that I must get done, so my reading of McCutcheon will have to wait.  I think the Press observations on the ruling are probably correct, and this does not bode well for the common citizen.  More to follow . . .

News from the economic front:
-- General Motors felt the heat for a decade delayed automotive recall for a defective ignition switch that would turn everything off while driving, with fatal results.  There are many lessons to be learned in this very costly debacle.  Not least of which is this may be the perfect example of why configuration management is so bloody critical, especially to manufacturers of human transportation vehicles like automobiles and aircraft.  The ignition switches involved have the same part number although the position plunger in the defective switch was 0.12mm shorter.  With the same part number, General Motors cannot isolate the suspect lot, which in turn means the cost of the recall will be substantially higher.  Further, I cannot imagine why General Motors’ executives justified such an extraordinary delay . . . other than perhaps they believed their advisors, who may have claimed no change in the ignition switch.  As a footnote, new General Motors CEO Mary Teresa Barra née Makela handled herself well in public testimony before a congressional inquiry.
-- The Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added a preliminary 192,000 jobs in March.  They also revised upward the January and February payrolls by a combined 37,000.  The revised February employment growth was 197,000.  The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 per centum.

Comments and contributions from Update no.641:
“The Russian Foreign Minister and Secretary Kerry have agreed that the Crimean situation requires diplomacy to resolve. President Putin agrees, he has 30,000 ‘diplomats’ assembled on the Ukrainian border.”
My reply:
            Diplomats . . . indeed!!

Comment to the Blog:
“I think your other commenter gave a sound history and analysis of Crimea and its surroundings. While I have not checked his or her facts, the outline works with what I know. My only real opinions are that the rest of the world should probably meddle only with extreme caution and that the United Nations is probably the best forum for debate. When I read in that comment about Crimea providing a warm-water port for the Russian Navy, the whole thing began to make sense. The Russian merchant marine might also benefit from that.
“As that comment pointed out, ethnicity plays as strong a part in the former USSR as it does in other troubled regions. His analysis of the ethnic Russian versus Tatar situation follows as night follows day, and his example of Chechnya works too. Does Putin really want two local wars to go with his international situation or has his foresight failed?
“As I recall it, the Baseline Scenario blog stated that only one bank had failed the stress test. You refer to plans rather than current holdings, so maybe that's the source of the difference. Citigroup and its too large to jail kind have little to no way to begin improving their images without real and deep changes in their business models.”
My response to the Blog:
            To my knowledge, those observations are accurate and apropos.  The warm water port is a big deal to the Russians, but that was not a reason for armed intervention and a façade referendum vote.
            Ethnicity of residents is not appropriate either.  I wonder how things would work out if the Mexican army removed their patches and identifying markings from their uniforms, entered South Texas, held a referendum, and then claimed that South Texas was finally reunited with Mother Mexico?
            I think Putin would love a good war to stir up the nationalistic juices and of course rely on him to defend Rodina, and he could demonstrate what a powerful leader he is.  Bullies think like that.
            Yes, Zion Bancorp failed the stress test as reported in Update no.640.  The capital plans are different from but related to the stress test.  Zion also had their capital plan rejected.  As I understand things, Citigroup passed the stress test (perhaps not by much), but the Fed rejected their capital plan, which probably dealt with other specific elements.  The Press reports did not offer details, so it is impossible for us to judge.
 . . . follow-up comment:
“I do not understand how you support attributing primarily personal motivation to Putin. Putin's publicity stunts satisfy a taste for macho leaders in much the same way as Reagan's or LBJ's carefully staged ranch events. If Putin's performances tend toward the crude and clumsy, that still works in Russia. Such marketing leaves him no more prone to pointless wars than those US Presidents. In fact, I would think him less so based on his record compared to theirs.
“Putin is already firmly in control in Russia, other than Chechnya. This will do nothing for that situation. However, if Ukraine were to focus its economy toward the West, that would endanger Russia's hold on the year-round port and oil pipelines terminating on the Black Sea. Losing the use of that port or facing increased costs poses serious dangers for both Russia's Navy and her economy. Ukraine was in fact close to an alliance with the EU when this crisis began. The question of working more closely with the EU versus with Russia precipitated the unrest and leadership change that kicked off this whole adventure. The initial Ukrainean leader chose to work with Russia and most of Ukraine revolted. Crimea did not follow suit and here we are.
“Your comparison of Crimea to South Texas does not hold up. Russia's loss of Crimea is far more recent than Texan statehood. The fall of the USSR, which removed Crimea from Russian control, is living memory, whereas Texas achieved independence and then Statehood in the 1840s. Perhaps more important, Russia is more prosperous than Ukraine and that will support any ethnic unrest among the Russians in Crimea. All of those facts support the statement that Crimeans of Russian descent might prefer to reunite with Russia. It's a good bet the referendum was rigged, but nevertheless a majority of Crimeans may very well support Russia. Nobody has made that contention about those of Mexican descent living in South Texas. Mexico, while it is gaining on the US, remains a much poorer nation. Also, many of those Mexican-descended families preceded the Anglo settlers by a century or more. They may feel their home was invaded a couple of centuries ago, but they do not feel they belong in Mexico. Any Mexican descent is a distant memory or less than that for many who are ethnically Latino. Also, "Mexican" does not include all Latinos by any means. The comparison does not hold up.
“Thank you for the clarity on the banking situation. That gives us the different levels of actual regulation that different banks are finally facing.”
 . . . my follow-up comments:
            Re: Putin.  Perhaps so.  I am not so generous.
            Re: Russian Black Sea access.  I respectfully disagree.  The Russian naval base and pipeline terminals were never threatened, to my knowledge . . . other than in “Soviet” perception.  Bases in foreign countries are nothing new.  Even if the Ukraine was firmly and functionally in the EU and NATO, the Russians could still have long-term leases or other legal documents to protect their local interests; if those agreements were violated, then the Russians might have a cause de guerre. 
            Re: Crimea.  You are slightly off in your history.  Premier Khrushchev “gifted” Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954.  Back then, Ukraine was still an SSR state, so perhaps back then the property transfer could be considered internal or irrelevant.  My use of South Texas was an analogous imagining, illustrating potentially how we might feel in comparison to the Ukraine.  The Russians violated Ukrainian sovereignty with intention; it was not a mistake or error by some local commander.  Using force of arms is not how these issues should be resolved.  The United States would not take kindly to an armed secession of South Texas with Mexican troops in unmarked uniforms and military equipment, stirring up long dormant affiliation with Mexico or the Spanish Empire.  Let us not sugar coat what the Russians have done in Crimea.
            Re: banking.  Yes, and I hope there are many more culprits who will eventually lose their freedom for a long time.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)