31 March 2014

Update no.641

Update from the Heartland
No.641
24.3.14 – 30.3.14
To all,

The follow-up news items:
-- The search for Flight MH370 [638-40] appears to be narrowing.  Until we have the download from the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), we will probably have no definitive indication of cause.  The authorities have stated there are no markers for terrorism . . . unspoken we might add . . . from outside the cockpit.  I might even rationalize a hypoxia event similar to the Payne Stewart accident [25.10.1999] or the Helios Airlines Flight ZU522 accident [14.8.2005], except for the MH370 aircraft course changes picked up by military RADAR in vicinity of the Malacca Straights.  I hope they find otherwise, but this looks like more and more to be a pilot-induced suicide or terrorism event. 
-- The G-7 (-1) disinvited Russia from the group of leading economies as a consequence of the Crimea situation [637-40].  President Obama flew to Brussels to reinforce NATO’s position in support of the Ukraine.  Then surprisingly, President Putin called President Obama while the latter was on the road so to speak, to discuss the Crimea and Ukraine situation – content undisclosed.  Perhaps Putin is attempting to defuse the tensions over the Ukraine, but the serious troop build up on the eastern Ukraine-Russia border suggest otherwise.  We can only hope this does not come to blows.

News from the economic front:
-- In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s banking stress test [640], the central bankers disapproved the capital plans of five large banks and approved 25 as part of its annual “stress tests” measuring a firm's ability to survive a severe economic downturn.  The five rejected institutions – Citigroup, Zions Bancorp, and the U.S. units of HSBC Holdings PLC, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Banco Santander – now must submit revised capital plans.  The Fed finding is a significant setback for Citigroup Chief Executive Michael Corbat, who sought to bolster the bank's reputation following a 2008 government rescue, and to reward investors with dividends and stock buybacks,
-- Bank of America agreed to a US$9.5B settlement with the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency over US$57.5B of mortgage-backed securities sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by Bank of America, Countrywide, and Merrill Lynch entities.  Bank of America will make a cash payment of US$6.3B to the two agencies and repurchase roughly US$3.2B of those securities at fair market value.
-- The Commerce Department revised the nation's 4Q2013 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upward to a 2.6% annual rate from the agency's previous calculation of 2.4% growth.   Consumer spending picked up late last year more than previously estimated, putting the economy on a stronger footing ahead of the recent disruptions caused by harsh weather.

L’Affaire Madoff [365]:
-- Jurors found five former employees of Bernie Madoff – two trading managers, two computer programmers and the firm's director of operations – guilty of conspiracy to defraud investors and securities fraud. The verdict shows Madoff got a wide range of support keeping afloat a scam that ran for decades and cost investors billions of dollars.

Comments and contributions from Update no.640:
“Re: the situation in the Crimea.   It may not be understood by many here, but Crimea was a part of Russia for about two centuries, after the Czar captured it.  It was ‘given’ to Ukraine, actually the Ukrainian SSR, in 1954 by Soviet head Nikita Khrushchev.  The real reason for this is unclear, as Khrushchev had recently taken over after Stalin’s death, and the party apparatchiks and other leaders were uncomfortable in challenging him.  He was from southern Russia, but spent most of his early Communist Party days in Ukraine and was there during part of the war.  Sympathy for Ukraine might be part of it- another version holds that he was drunk. No kidding.  At any rate, the reason for it isn’t clear in Soviet history.  It really meant nothing at the time, as it was within the Soviet Union.
“But with the large ethnic Russian population in Crimea, this was not an unforeseen move.  When I was posted in Moscow in the mid-90’s, my sons’ school trip to Crimea was cancelled due to a squabble over the division of the former Soviet Navy assets there.
“From the Russian view, particularly Putin’s, the West has gone back on a number of promises that were made to Gorbachev at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union- not to expand NATO into Soviet territory.  Bush I made some promises to Gorby that the Russians now are thinking have been broken.  This is part of their mind-set- we don’t have to agree with it but they- at least understand some of them feel threatened.   Also, the Russian Navy needs Crimea for a warm-water port.  The Russian Navy was begun by Peter the Great in the Sea of Azov, next to Crimea, and it has great nostalgia among Russian Naval people..a lot of retired Soviet/Russian naval officers live there.
“What Putin may have done, however, is ensure another Chechnya.  About 15% of the population is Crimean Tatar- the ethnic group that originally habited the area.  Most of them were expelled to Central Asia by Stalin after the war- hundreds of thousands died.  Gradually, a significant segment of the Tatar population returned, to where they now make up about 15% - significant, in that they are mostly Muslim.  They feel threatened, and there already have been actions against them.  This may eventually lead to problems and then violence.  Stay tuned.”
My reply:
Jan,
            Great insight.  Thank you, my friend.

Comment to the Blog:
“Russia seems to be doing its ‘loose cannon’ thing again. That goes back well before Stalin. Land-grabbing Russian leaders arguably go back to Ivan the Terrible in an almost unbroken line. Also worth noting, though, least one Ukrainian revolt against the West (in that case Poland-Lithuania) got under way in 1648. (Russian history per Wikipedia) Also note the Crimean War. While the referendum in Crimea is probably fishy, the issues there go deeper than the usual Russian desire to dominate. There are places in this world that will not be tamed by the USA's power or alleged benevolence, and this is one. In the meantime, we need to rebuild the nation we have. The European Union can take care of itself if we allow that. We also need to note that Russia has one of the larger economies in the world (6th or 8th depending on what one measures, per Wikipedia also). Regardless of Putin's personal crudeness, we need to consider the implications of that.
“Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 continues to fascinate the world. The families of those aboard need our sympathy, although I cannot imagine a material way to help them. This waiting seems to me much worse than mourning, and the spotlight makes it even worse.
“Historic change continues to favor marriage equality. While I have yet to study the specifics, I have seen a headline here in Ohio that the Michigan decision “endangers” Ohio's anti-gay-marriage statute. Good.
“I am glad the government has finally recognized 24 Latino and Jewish men who earned the Medal of Honor. That brings up the question of African-American, Native American, and other minority soldiers who might have been overlooked by the system as it was.
“You are so reticent to note your own struggle with the review process for combat awards that you did not mention your part in that. Feel free to give us more.
“I had forgotten or not realized that you had been involved with the spy community. You yourself called it the ‘dark side,’ appropriate either as an allusion to its secrecy or to its checkered history. Please understand that my attitudes about that field of endeavor are based on its history and not on anything personal. My assumption about you is that you served as honorably and capably as possible in whatever were the circumstances. The lesson of history is that a substantial number of spies and their superiors fail in one or both of those qualities. Given the importance of their responsibilities, that is a national issue everywhere, not just here.
“My reason for mistrusting Diane Feinstein may differ from your other correspondent's. Mine is her hypocrisy in supporting any level of surveillance of U.S. citizens right up until she realized she is subject to that same surveillance. That hypocrisy offends me and leads me to doubt her.
“We have had enough of winter here in Ohio, but it has not had enough of us. The projected high temperature for Columbus today is twenty degrees Fahrenheit below the average. We expect the same for tomorrow, with a little snow overnight. I want easier weather for my bicycle riding. I will ride all the same, though. Meanwhile, the world as a whole has had another warm winter season. Australia's corresponding summer re-wrote the record book for heat, and Alaska nearly failed to have snow for the Iditarod dog sled race. We live in interesting times. That will not change in my lifetime. I am 56 years old. Even if every national government took the strongest measures to stabilize the climate within a few years (not likely), the changes would continue for twenty five years before stasis or reversal began. By the time we reached 1990 levels, I would be extremely old.”
My response to the Blog:
            Re: Ukraine.  We seem to be on a Russian history journey these days.  Probably fishy . . . I’d say definitely fishy.  When do we feel compelled to intervene in the assault by a schoolyard bully?
            Re: MH370.  Yes, the uncertainty of such events, especially at this phase of the investigation, leaves the families in an obscene netherworld.  I think the experts will sort this out in time, but it may take a long time.
            Re: marriage equality.  Marriage is simply the cause de jure.  The issue at stake is much larger than marriage.  It is equal protection under the law, as guaranteed by the Constitution, for all citizens regardless of the social factors.  The journey continues . . . one small step at a time.  Kansas said the same thing with the judges’ decisions in Utah and Oklahoma.
            Re: my struggle.  What would you like to know?  How I finally figured it out?
            Re: IC.  There are bad men in all walks of life including the IC.  The public may know a few of the bad things perpetrated by bad men, but they do not know the thousands upon thousands of good things performed by good men, which is why I urge balance in leveling our criticism at the entire IC.
            Re: Feinstein.  As noted above, I give her more credit for what I surmise she knows or is aware of in her position.  The perception of hypocrisy may well be the price of secrecy in all this.
            Re: climate.  The Earth is a living organism.  It cycles; it ebbs and flows.  The Earth experienced a massive ice age of many millennia just a mere 13,000 years ago.  1816 is called the year without summer.  The Earth will continue to cycle.  Nonetheless, we must decrease our dependence on fossil fuels and other pollutants of the Earth’s air, water and land.  The only debate hangs upon what is reasonable and responsible.
 . . . follow-up comment:
“With respect to Ukraine, Russia is indeed a bully. It was ever thus, as I have pointed out. In terms of the EU, not so much. Russia's perennial expansionism has perpetually failed as it reached Western Europe. The last successful conquerors as far west as western Germany who came from that part of the world were the Mongols, and they could not or would not hold the territory. Indeed, the recent Russians, when they were called the USSR, lost much of Eastern Europe due to their own internal issues.
“I agree that marriage equality is the immediate cause of a larger change. However, I see the change as far broader than the US and deeper than the Constitution. Social progress has become the most obvious indicator for the US having fallen behind the rest of the developed world. Whether it is the most important is probably a matter of perspective, but the underlying attitudes tie it to such economic issues as health care and crime.
“Cap, you mentioned struggling with the combat medal review process but then gave no further information about your part in the process. That kind of ‘teaser’ demands a follow-up or leaves your audience unsatisfied. Good writing cries for a middle and ending to go with the beginning of that story.
“I have not said the spy community was unalloyed evil or anything close to that. I have come to believe something my mother used to repeat, ‘There's good and bad in every one.’ Nobody has ever shown me a reason to doubt that many capable and morally sound people toil in the ‘intelligence’ field. What I have said, and what history supports, is that the secrecy inherent in spying fosters the incompetent and the corrupt by making it easy and functionally important to cover their tracks. As stated, the importance of their work makes that an issue worldwide.
“The examples of climate variability you give are essentially red herrings. This planet has indeed been both far colder and far hotter than it is today. I will add 1888 to the list of colder-than-normal events because others cite it as an example. That was caused by the eruption of Krakatoa, and has no more bearing than the others. The important fact here is the rate of change. If the changes we have experienced in the past twenty years had occurred over a millennium, which would be more typical, humans and other creatures would have adapted and barely noticed. Such a change even over a couple of centuries would be met with few serious losses. On the other hand, Krakatoa caused a dramatic changed, but that only lasted a few years. The current situation bears little resemblance to those historical events. People respond poorly to events as relatively slow as climate change, and we will pay a high price for that. That facts that the Chinese and others are choking themselves with air pollution and that the U.S. and others are ruining our own water supplies will in time pale before the changes in the climate of the entire Earth.”
 . . . my follow-up response:
            Re: Ukraine.  Bullies always have rationale for doing what they do; it is no different with Uncle Vlad.  To me, Russian historic schizophrenia seems to be the motivator; they lack confidence in their military to the extent they need land as a buffer for mobilization or deployment time.  The Ukraine does not belong to Russia – never has, never will, despite Russian occupation off & on over the years.  They use the “NATO threat” as their excuse, but I really think it is the simple megalomania of a bully.
            Re: marriage.  Agreed.  Spot on!
            Re: My struggle.  I just figured most folks don’t care about such things, thus my reticence.  However, I am happy to recount my journey.  Most Press references for that effort used the ambiguous “Congress directed” (if anything), which is virtually of no use.  The best I could get from any Press article on the process and the event was as noted “2002 National Defense Authorization Act.” “2002” could be the fiscal year, the calendar year, or the congressional designation.  “National Defense Authorization Act” could be a variety of different titles.  The only reference I had did not have quote marks or any other sign of precision.  As noted in last week’s Update, the precise title as enacted was “National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2002” and I add the bracket notation [PL 107–107; S. 1438; 115 Stat. 1012; 28.December.2001] – the public law number, legislative designation, statue notation, and please note the date the President signed the bill into law . . . not 2002.  Contemporary statute files do not have an index or table of contents as most of the early versions do, so searching has to be more precise.  So, there you have it.  Do you want anymore detail?
            Re: “the secrecy inherent in spying fosters the incompetent and the corrupt . . .”  I simply cannot agree.  Secrecy is not the root cause.  The majority of folks are good, diligent, patriotic citizens who do great things for this Grand Republic under that secrecy.  It is a few individuals (comparatively) who exceed their authority largely out of overzealousness or political partisanship, in my opinion.  Also, they inherently take risks; sometimes those risks work, sometimes not.
            Re: climate.  Many argue the eruption of Volcano Toba 75,000 years ago caused the Ice Age that lasted for 60,000 years.  There are many forces that affect our climate.  In our lifetimes, scientists thought we faced another ice age just 50 years ago.  Other scientists predicted an apocalyptic population “bomb” would explode 30 years ago.  Like you, I am concerned about the effects of climate change on our way of life, but I truly struggle with the inflation of man’s effect on that climate change.  I want social and economic reforms to reduce or eliminate our reliance on fossil fuels, but too radical of a change could easily be far more injurious.  The doomsday’ists do not impress me.  Someday one will be correct, but until then all have been wrong.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

24 March 2014

Update no.640

Update from the Heartland
No.640
17.3.14 – 23.3.14
To all,

Erratum:
In last week’s Update, I reported the Crimean vote in favor of secession from the Ukraine was 89.5%, which was a premature result.  Monday morning, the Crimean Referendum Commission Chairman Mikhail Malyshev reported the final vote count excluding Sevastopol was 96.77% in favor of rejoining Russia, and in Sevastopol, the tally was 95.6% for rejoining Russia.

The follow-up news items:
-- We had Uncle Joe 70 years ago.  Now, we have Uncle Vlad.  Putin wasted no time in having the upper chamber of the Russian Parliament endorse the Crimean vote and absorb Crimea [637-9].  Russian armed forces moved quickly to take control of Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea.  Gunfire and explosions have been reported.  NATO responses have been subdued if not tepid.  It seems the EU and U.S. are attempting to sanction the perpetrators rather than punish the Russian people broadly, which is probably a wise choice, although Putin’s propagandists will work relentlessly to froth up Russian fervor for renewed confrontation with the West, turning the clock back 70 years to Stalin’s heyday.  This is a long way from being over, I suspect.
-- The search for Flight MH370 [638-9] continues with the primary focus on an area of the Indian Ocean 1,400 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, for reasons that have not been publicly made available, as yet.  Some retired general on Fox News claimed the aircraft landed somewhere in the tribal area of Pakistan.  In mathematical terms, we still have too many variables with not enough equations.  Further, the Malaysian government has attracted a fair amount of criticism for their rather herky-jerky handling of the investigation.  Unfortunately for Malaysia, they were ill-equipped to handle such a rare event of this magnitude.

At 04:00 [B], Monday, 17.March.2014 {22:00 [R] EST, 16.March}, U.S. Navy SEALs boarded and took control of the commercial tanker MV Morning Glory, a stateless vessel carrying Libyan oil and seized earlier this month by three armed Libyans. The boarding took place in international waters off the southeast coast of Cyprus, and there were no injuries in the operation. The U.S. took action at the request of both the Libyan and Cypriot governments

Michigan has joined a growing number of other states to have the federal judiciary strike down state laws regarding marriage rights.  We are only halfway to equal protection under the law for all citizens regardless of the social factors.

President Obama awarded 24 Medals of Honor on Tuesday.  Only 3 of the 24 were still alive to receive their awards:
-- Staff Sergeant Melvin Morris of Cocoa, Florida, for courageous actions during combat operations in the vicinity of Chi Lang, South Vietnam, on 17.September.1969.
-- Specialist 4 Santiago J. Erevia of San Antonio, Texas, cited for courage during a search and clear mission near Tam Ky, South Vietnam, on 21.May.1969.
-- Sergeant First Class Jose Rodela of San Antonio, Texas, cited for courage during combat operations in Phuoc Long province, South Vietnam, on 1.September.1969.
The posthumous recipients were:
-- Specialist 4 Leonard L. Alvarado of Bakersfield, California, died during combat operations in Phuoc Long province, South Vietnam, on 12.August.1969.
-- Corporal Joe R. Baldonado, born in Colorado, killed during combat operations in Kangdong, North Korea, on 25.November.1950.
-- Private Pedro Cano of La Morita, Mexico, for courageous actions during combat operations in Schevenhutte, Germany, on 3.December.1944.
-- Staff Sergeant Felix M. Conde-Falcon of Juncos, Puerto Rico, killed during combat operations in Ap Tan Hoa, South Vietnam, on 4.April.1969.
-- Specialist 4 Ardie R. Copas of Fort Pierce, Florida, killed during combat operations near Ph Romeas Hek, Cambodia, on 12.May.1970.
-- Specialist. 4 Jesus S. Duran of San Bernardino, California, for courageous actions during combat operations in South Vietnam on 10.April.1969.
-- Corporal Victor H. Espinoza of El Paso, Texas, for courageous actions during combat operations in Chorwon, North Korea, on 1.August.1952.
-- Private Joe Gandara of Santa Monica, California, for courageous actions during combat operations in Amfreville, France, on 9.June.1944.
-- Sergeant Candelario Garcia of Corsicana, Texas, for courageous actions during combat operations in Lai Khe, South Vietnam, on 8.December.1968.
-- Sergeant Eduardo C. Gomez, of Los Angeles, for courageous actions during combat operations in Tabu-dong, South Korea, on 3.September.1950.
-- Private First Class Leonard M. Kravitz, born in New York City, killed during combat operations in Yangpyong, South Korea, on 6/7.March.1951.
-- Private First Class Salvador J. Lara of Riverside, California, for courageous actions during combat operations in Aprilia, Italy, 27/28.May.1944.
-- Sergeant William F. Leonard of Lockport, New Jersey, for courageous actions during combat operations near St. Die, France, on 7.November.1944.
-- Staff Sergeant Manuel V. Mendoza of Miami, Arizona, for courageous actions during combat operations on Mount Battaglia, Italy, on 4.October.1944.
-- Master Sergeant Juan E. Negron of Bayamon, Puerto Rico, for courageous actions during combat operations in Kalma-Eri, North Korea, on 28.April.1951.
-- Sergeant Alfred B. Nietzel of New York City, for courageous actions during combat operations in Heistern, Germany, on 18.November.1944.
-- Master Sergeant Mike C. Pena of Newgulf, Texas, killed in action during combat operations in Waegwan, South Korea, on 4.September.1950.
-- Private Demensio Rivera of Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico, for courageous actions during combat operations in Changyong-ni, South Korea, on 23.May.1951.
-- First Lieutenant Donald K. Schwab of Hooper, Nebraska, for courageous actions during combat operations near Lure, France, on 17.September.1944.
-- Private Miguel A. Vera born in Puerto Rico, killed during combat operations in Chorwon, North Korea, on 21.September.1952.
-- Sergeant Jack Weinstein of Saint Francis, Kansas, for courageous actions during combat operations in Kumsong, South Korea, on 19.October.1951.
I laud the government’s initiative to correct these mistakes and humbly thank these citizens and supporters for their extraordinary service to this Grand Republic and the cause of freedom.  May God rest their immortal souls.
            I am reticent to note my struggle with establishing the basis for the review of combat awards by the Army, reported by the Press.  Several Press articles cited the source law as the 2002 National Defense Authorization Act, which is not a precise notation.  The process of localization took an inordinate amount of time as a consequence.  For those who may be interested or curious and beyond my whining about time spent, I eventually found the applicable law – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2002  [PL 107–107; S. 1438; 115 Stat. 1012; 28.December.2001], and specifically Title V – Military Personnel Policy, Subtitle F – Decorations, Awards, and Posthumous Commissions, § 552 – Review regarding award of Medal of Honor to certain Jewish American and Hispanic American war veterans [115 Stat. 1115].  The law directed the secretaries of each of the military departments to review past awards for discrimination based on heritage.  This ceremony presumably completes the Department of the Army review directed by § 552 of PL 107-107, and the other departments have yet to complete their reviews.

Turkey reported the shoot down of a Syrian warplane on Sunday – a distinct escalation of tensions along the 565-mile border.  The conditions and circumstances of the encounter have not yet been disclosed.  This could easily explode into a far hotter war in the region.

News from the economic front:
-- The Federal Reserve indicated it would not consider raising interest rates from near zero until the jobless rate fell to 6.5%, provided inflation looks likely to remain below 2.5%.   The Fed dropped the reference to the 6.5% jobless rate, which officials have come to see as too limited an indicator of the labor market's health.  They are putting less weight on the unemployment rate as a signpost for when rate increases will start, while affirming its plan to keep borrowing costs low, far into the future.
-- The Federal Reserve announced their annual test of big banks’ financial health showed that 29 of the 30 largest institutions are strong enough to withstand a severe economic downturn, potentially clearing the way for banks to reward investors with dividends and stock buybacks.  Only one bank, Zions Bancorp, fell below required minimum capital levels.

Comments and contributions from Update no.639:
“Thanks Cap.  Good stuff with a little more detail than I get from most other 'open' sources as usual.
“Not a critique; just a comment.  Once we accept the fact that we all have limits on what we know, or think we know, and what we can know, then it's only a matter of recognizing the highest floor our elevator stops on.  We can move up a couple of floors through diligent, honest research - as you do, but there's still a limit.  You have said as much several times.
“After that, it's really a matter of who you trust - or trust least.  It's a balancing act.  The top of my un-trust list is obviously the media, followed closely by this president, his staff and his 'justice' department.  Nothing destroys trust like a known lie told on an inaccessible level but revealed at one of the floors your elevator does stops on.  I do not necessarily trust the intelligence community, but I trust Feinstein less and her staff's motives even less than that.
“As for the 'legal' ways the Intel community could have proceeded; only if the staffers were part of the white, male, 'privileged' class.  This 'justice' department has a dismal record of doing anything not directly connected with the furthering of a political agenda.  As Billy Jack would say: 'When lawmen break the law, there is no law.'
“Just my opinion.”
My reply:
            I try to be thorough and understand.  I rarely get it correct, but I still try.
            Having spent some time on the dark side decades ago, I have some appreciation for the contrast between intelligence data and public information.  While I would love to see the “real” data in this case and others, I acknowledge I cannot see it as a private citizen.  So, we absorb as much as we can, connect the dots, and see what image appears.
            In the intelligence world, corroboration and source trustworthiness are key elements of the analysis process.  That is one reason multiple, independent sources are so bloody important.
            I’m not sure what “known lie” you are referring to?
            Re: Feinstein.  I’m not sure what has led you to distrust Dianne Feinstein . . . other than she is a Democrat.  I am not to that level of distrust; skeptical or inquisitive, yes, but distrustful, not yet.
            Congressional staffers, or any citizen for that matter, have NO right whatsoever to violate the responsibility to protect classified material.  I suspect citizens in both branches of government have gotten so use to “stealing” stuff from the other that now anything is fair game . . . thus your Billy Jack quotation.  So, as I said earlier, I laud the referral to the Judiciary . . . that is what the 3rd branch is there for . . . to adjudicate spats between the other two branches.  So, let them lay out their respective arguments and let’s see what a judge has to say.  I suspect they both have a smattering of wrong-ness here, but the CIA went too far.

Comment to the Blog:
“In all the changes at Textron, I hope you fare well one way or another.
“The saga of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 370 continues. I agree with friends who say that the media and everyone else is just guessing now. The possibilities, based on the evidence and conjecture in TV and the Internet, are essentially endless.
“The Ukraine/Crimea event continues. I predict that the European nations will put their best efforts into preventing disruption of the Russian oil pipelines. Anything beyond that is anybody's guess.
“So now you and Diane Feinstein have decided the spy business has gone too far. What made either of you blind to the self-serving nature of spy organizations until now baffles me. It was ever thus.”
My response to the Blog:
            Re: Textron. Thank you. Time shall tell the tale.
            Re: MH370. There certainly is a plethora of hypothesizing going on, regarding the fate of the flight. Yet, there are unchallenged facts.
1. The flight took off from Kuala Lumpur at 00:41 [G].
2. The flight did not arrive at its scheduled and planned destination of Beijing, PRC.
3. Someone (qualified or very well trained) in the cockpit was in control of the aircraft.
4. The aircraft was not equipped with an in-flight refueling system.
Less assured:
5. The aircraft transponder stopped transmitting at 01:19 [G].
6. Geostationary Inmarsat satellite over Indian Ocean recorded a handshake ping from the a/c at 08:11 [G].
7. Estimated duration of loaded fuel supply – 08:40 [G].
There are a host of other public domain details that cannot be considered as facts since evidence has not been presented or corroborated. Given just the facts above, mechanical failure and “act of God” can be eliminated. I think it safe to say, whatever happened to MH370, it is not good.
            Re: Ukraine/Crimea. The EU / U.S. response so far has been rather tepid and meaningless.
            Re: spy business. I could not prove the Spitzer transgression, while I think the likelihood is strong. The Senate transgression was not passive listening and abusive use; it was a covert, intrusive, intentional, offensive act. So, whatever reason, yes, I am at that point – the USG is not worthy of such tools. Further, some supervisor or group of someones at CIA made the decision to break into the Senate Intell Cmte computers. Anyway, I am where I am.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,

Cap                        :-)

17 March 2014

Update no.639

Update from the Heartland
No.639
10.3.14 – 16.3.14
To all,

Well, now, the only constant in life is change, and life goes on.  On Friday, 14.March.2014, the sale of the venerable Beechcraft Corporation was completed and closed with Textron, Inc.  A new entity – Textron Aviation – was created to combine the three airplane brands – Beechcraft, Cessna & Hawker.  Back in the day, Walter Beech, Clyde Cessna, Lloyd Stearman and Glenn Curtis were all together in the Travel Air Company.  Over time, the pioneers split and each formed his namesake company.  With this sale, we are together again.
            Most of the Beechcraft executives were released, including CEO Bill Boisture, who led the company through the tortured waters of the Great Recession, major downsizing, bankruptcy and the eventual sale of the company.  There have been no further announcements regarding the integration of Textron Aviation other than to say they expect the process to take 6-12 months.  And so it goes!

The follow-up news items:
-- Based on the publicly available information and attempting to distill out the early conflicting information, the fate of Malaysian Airline Flight MH370 [638] cannot be good.  Without the Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder, even if they are eventually recovered, external, independent reconstruction of the flight will be more difficult as the recorded data has been overwritten.  Further, if the latest information is accurate, a specifically trained, knowledgeable, and experienced pilot must have been in control of the aircraft – a rogue pilot crewmember or a hijacker.  The aircraft does not have in-flight refueling equipment, and the aircraft has long passed its fuel capacity; thus, it must have landed somewhere (and potentially refueled) or it has crashed somewhere.  If it was a terrorist event, they accomplished their mission – induce public apprehension regarding airline travel.  If it was a pilot suicide event, it would not be the first.  To my knowledge, we have not seen an aviation event quite like this one in contemporary times.
-- The sad drama continues to play out in the Ukraine [637-8].  Uncle Joe Stalin said, “It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.”  Vladimir Putin has consistently demonstrated his favoring of Stalinist realpolitik.  The Crimea “vote” is done.  As of Sunday evening, “officials” reported 89.5% of Crimea provincial voters cast their votes in favor of cession from Ukraine and joining Russia.  So, Putin has what he wanted, “justification” for his armed seizure of Crimea . . . and probably, eventually, the eastern provinces of Ukraine.  Perhaps comparisons to Hitler are not appropriate, despite Putin’s use of precisely the same arguments for his offensive actions; then perhaps, the comparison to Stalin is more appropriate.  This tragedy is a long way from conclusion.

Since 9/11 and the subsequent combat operations, and especially since that fugitive in Russia stole a trove of classified material and publicly disclosed portions of his booty, I have striven mightily to defend the Intelligence Community (IC) to ensure they had the broadest kit bag of tools to assist the efforts of this Grand Republic to wage war successfully in the War on Islamic Fascism.  Then, on Tuesday, 11.March.2014, this little news tidbit came across my computer screen.
“Feinstein: CIA searched Intelligence Committee computers”
by Ed O’Keefe and Adam Goldman
Washington Post
Published: Tuesday, March 11, 9:14 AM
Other opinions of the same event:
“The Senate-CIA Blowup Threatens a Constitutional Crisis – The allegations of CIA snooping on congressional investigators isn't just a scandal—the whole premise of secret government is in question.”
Mother Jones
Published: Tue Mar. 11, 2014 10:01 AM GMT
and
White House told of CIA move against Senate aides
by David Espo and Julie Pace
Associated Press
Published: Mar 12, [2014]; 5:56 PM EDT
For those who may not readily know, Senator Dianne Emiel Feinstein of California is the chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence – the principal legislative oversight committee for the IC.
            To my understanding of this whole fracas, the Senate Intelligence Committee has been investigating the CIA’s use of Enhanced Interrogation Techniques (EIT) with captured battlefield combatants.  Apparently, as accusations have been made, the assigned congressional staffers exceeded their mandate and copied files they were not authorized to see, let alone take possession of in their investigation.  Then, the CIA presumably hacked into staffers’ computers to retrieve those documents.  Regardless, legal means exist for the CIA to seek return of the out-of-scope documents and prosecute the staffers for violation of their access authority.  Surreptitiously accessing the congressional computers is wrong in about every way imaginable.  According to the O’Keefe/Goldman article, Senator Feinstein intends to refer this case and her facts to the Justice Department for prosecution.  While Senator Feinstein’s accusations have not been proven beyond a reasonable doubt, I believe there is veracity to her words.  I hope all those involved in this information dispute are charged, tried, convicted and imprisoned.  This is the classic fear all of us should have in allowing the government the means intended for the prosecution of war to be turned on us, whether congressional staffer or private citizen.
            In an interesting and timely representation, CBS’s “The Good Wife” lawyer drama series has an interwoven sub-plot involving two young men portrayed as nerdy, carefree, computer-geeks working for the NSA and using powerful, clandestine, warrantless, electronic surveillance programs to hack into a wide variety of electronic communications at will.  The program they present appears to be similar to a Google Analytics application that enables them to watch and listen to complex communications, despite efforts to thwart their anonymous, clandestine activities.  The episode that aired Sunday night, 9.March.2014, had this NSA “group” turning over raw “terrorism” tapped transcripts to the DEA, AUSA, and the DoJ’s Office of Public Integrity, the “protected” legal communications that have absolutely nothing to do with or even remotely associated with any aspect of the War on Islamic Fascism.  The parallels to the current CIA-Feinstein conflict are striking and thought-provoking.  Further, the portrayed warrantless surveillance is precisely what I believe happened to Governor Elliott Spitzer of New York, which actually worse in that it was motivated by political vendetta.  We could also throw in the illegal IRS auditing kerfuffle. 
            The CIA-Feinstein tussle brings the fictional portrayal to real life and actualization.  The USG has proven to be unworthy of the powerful tools they have been provided for the security of this Grand Republic.  I am now of the opinion our expectation of national security cannot be maintained in the light of USG abuses of power.  We must begin the process of reigning in the IC, even if that means we must endure more injury at the hands of Islamo-fascists.  I am truly saddened and disappointed we have come to this state.

For those who have followed the TWA 800 incident and especially our hypothesis regarding the root cause, this new information should be intriguing.
“Lockerbie bombing 'was work of Iran, not Libya' says former spy – Iranian defector Abolghassem Mesbahi says Pan Am 103 attack was revenge for US Navy strike on Iranian passenger jet”
by Gordon Rayner, Chief Reporter
The Telegraph [UK]
Published: 10 Mar 2014; 11:00PM GMT
The in-flight break-up of Pan American Airlines Flight PA103 occurred on Wednesday, 21.December.1988, and was caused by an on-board explosive that ruptured the pressure vessel and compromised the structural integrity of the aircraft over Lockerbie, Dumfriesshire, Scotland.  The connection to TWA 800 [17.July.1996] is the Islamic Republic of Iran and the professed revenge for the destruction of Iran Air Flight 655, mistakenly shot down by the USS Vincennes (CG-49) on 3.July.1988, during the tensions in the Persian Gulf as a consequence of the Iran-Iraq War [began: 22.September.1980; ended: 20.August.1988].  What I find most interesting is the validation of the fundamental premise – state-sanctioned retribution.  We just moved another step closer to confirmation of our hypothesis.  Stay tuned!

Comments and contributions from Update no.638:
Comment to the Blog:
“The situation in Crimea and the balance of Ukraine continues to change. Few indeed are the takeovers where the conquered territory holds a referendum. The background of this event is interesting and appears to be derived from long-term conflicts within Ukraine as much as anything else. One of the more fascinating underlying questions that probably will only emerge when historians study this is whether Ukraine underwent a true revolution to rid itself of its former Chief Executive or whether it experienced the latest in a long line of US ‘regime changes’ (the US term for a takeover).
“I wish Mr. Soobzokov well. He takes on large and merciless forces.
“Any comment I could make about the Malaysia Airlines flight could easily be outdated by the time I sent it, so I will refrain.
“That the EU wants to make large loans to Ukraine with strings attached ought to surprise nobody. Their position in this event is primarily as consumers, and their energy supply is in question.”
My response to the Blog:
            Re: Ukraine/Crimea.  Indeed, time shall tell the tale.  If the U.S. had a hand in the “revolution,” I have not seen the signs.  Based on what I see so far, Russia (Putin) wants to protect their assets in Crimea.  Of course, the Stalin narrative of a buffer with Europe is not unreasonable either from a historic perspective.
            Re: Soobzokov.  Aslan has impressed me with his tenacity and fearlessness in trying to clear his father’s reputation.  It sure looks like the Press-induced frenzy stimulated a political vengeful attack.  Very sad; like mob justice.
            Re: Malaysia Airlines.  It is all speculation.  The public has insufficient facts to see through the haze.
            Re: Europe.  I think the EU motivation relative to Ukraine is more than economic.  Back in the day, there were a lot of folks who were convinced Stalin intended to march to the Atlantic, in a reverse conquest of Hitler’s march to the Urals and Caucasus.  Putin saber-rattling has not help soothe the apprehension or assuage the fears.  Putin has always struck me as a man who seeks and thrives upon inducing fear in others.

My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)