30 November 2015

Update no.728

Update from the Heartland
No.728
23.11.15 – 29.11.15
To all,

            I trust everyone so inclined enjoyed the Happiest Thanksgiving.  The holiday season has begun.  Enjoy every moment with family and friends.

            We have not seen the Sun in four days, and the forecast says another day of this weather.  We have also had to deal with a serious ice storm . . . well, not so much Jeanne and me, as we remained warm & comfy in the house and off the streets.  Thank goodness.  The winter season is not here astronomically, but it has certainly arrived meteorologically.

            The follow-up news items:
-- After the Russians deployed combat aircraft to Syria to support the Assad regime [718], I suppose we all knew an incident was verging on inevitable.  Although public information is contradictory, on Tuesday, it appears Turkish F-16 fighters shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer fighter-bomber that failed to respond to repeated warnings for violation of Turkish airspace.  The Russians claimed it was a ‘preplanned provocation.” And their response reminded me that is precisely what the Germans said when they claimed “Polish radicals” attacked the radio station in Gliwice, Germany.
            After the shootdown, the Russians announced the deployment of an advanced S-400 anti-aircraft missile system to Syria to “protect” their combat aircraft operations.  This is not a constructive or positive move and will not improve the situation in Syria.  I suspect the Russians will use the system and the proclaimed fighter escort for ground attack aircraft to control airspace and intimidate anyone and everyone operating in the region, which if realized, would present a threat to coalition air operations and thus become a target.

            What we witnessed in Colorado Springs, Colorado, is exactly what happens when folks use inflammatory rhetoric in public discourse.  Some lunatic individual will believe and actualize that mindless tripe of the radical fringe.  We simply must learn to engage in a vigorous public debate on important issues without disrespecting those who disagree with us.  Our objective should be finding a mutually acceptable compromise without resorting to the absurdity of binary absolutism – I’m right, you’re wrong, there is no compromise – not an intellectually sophisticated approach.
            Contrary to Carly Fiorina’s claim that my argument is some left-wing attempt to suppress anti-abortion voices, my advocacy for more respectful intercourse has utterly nothing to do with diminishing any argument in this or any other public debate.  The fiery rhetoric so common these days in emotional topics does NOT seek solutions, only domination and intimidation – precisely the absolutism noted above.  Let us find mutually compatible solutions to our societal problems rather than attempt to beat down one side or the other.

            The UN World Climate Summit 2015 begins next week in Paris, France.
            A contributor offered this perspective:
“I believe people can connect on the issue of global hope. This may be the hope I have been looking for.  I believe that we can unite to make a difference.  Please watch this video.  I believe we can educate and convince thinking people that scientists and scholars are right, and that there are changes that will save our planet, but that we are not demanding those changes. 
“I don’t know what to do, but now that I know there are people who are willing to get involved…people who never have before…smart people, caring people, thinking people, I finally have hope.
“Be curious. Don't stop learning. 
"Perhaps you will want to take a stand with these brave people.  I think this may be the ultimate cause.  Climate change is no longer a doom's day - hysterical reaction - it is now a given - but people have amazing strength when their backs are against the wall. 
 “Here's a link to a short film that quickly explains and gives you the true sense of hope.  When you get to the part about the mine in Germany, you'll see what I mean.”
 . . . to which I replied, after watching the linked video:
            The evidence that the planet is experiencing a warming phase seems pretty clear and indisputable to me.  The debate is and remains surrounding the root cause.  Yet, regardless of the cause, there is no doubt in my little pea brain that we must wean ourselves off of fossil fuels, especially high pollutant coal burning.  There are finite limits to the quantity of all fossil fuels.  Further, the byproducts of combustion of fossil fuels are not good for the planet, irrespective of whether they are related to climate change or not.
            My concern in this discussion rests with solutions, not protests and disruptions of life as we know it.  The XL pipeline is NOT the issue.  A coalmine in Germany is NOT the issue, either.  I would much rather than see our energies focused on solutions rather wasted on outrage and treating to symptoms rather than the root cause(s).
 . . . with this follow-up comment:
“Thank you so much for your great response.  I agree.  I am not interested in outrage. That is the reason I liked the idea of working together to get our leaders to listen and work toward a better way of doing things.  I think the people who tried to stop the machines in Germany were all saying the same thing you are saying - connect and stand united toward using better sources of energy.  My focus is really on population growth, but the thing that gives me hope is that intelligent people are finally agreeing and working together.  I am starting to believe that there ARE solutions but that big business has stopped many solutions from becoming viable.
I have often thought about the political differences that our grandparents had and that their children had, and yet they loved each other and respected each other.  It is interesting to see that the split in ideology has continued through the generations. I am very glad, though, that we all seem to be reasonable and rational and willing to learn more, and to modify our thinking.  I have been learning so much. It has been painful... filled me with a sense of hopelessness.  But now I am starting to find some reason for hope.  Here's hoping hope is real.”
 . . . along with my follow-up reply:
Paula,
            I appreciate your perspective, Cousin, but I shall respectfully disagree.  The people who were trying to stop the mining machines in Germany were protesting the symptoms, not seeking solutions.  Let’s take their argument to the end point.  Let us say they are successful and they stop all coal mining, all oil production, all shipments of all fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas, everything), where does that leave us?  No electricity (or at best rolling blackouts), no automobiles, no airplanes, no ships, no trains, no tractors or farm equipment . . . how does life as we know it look now?  My point is, instead of disrupting life as we know it, our energies should be focused on transitioning our way of life from fossil fuels to renewable energy without disrupting that way of life.  Shutting down coal mining is not a solution.
            Re: population growth.  Ah, yes, this is indeed a very real and bona fide problem.  The PRC made an attempt to curtail it, but they chose the wrong path.  “The Population Bomb” is very real indeed, but not approaching as rapidly as Paul Ehrlich predicted.  The population problem is far deeper and more complex than most folks recognize.
            Re: big business.  You are quite right in this aspect.  Business is only interested in one thing – shareholder return.  We must stimulate our governments to override the business motive; however, it must be done in a progressive, productive manner.  If it is not, it could have the same result, i.e., adversely and unnecessarily affected out way of life.
            Respectfully, the protesters in Germany did not offer solutions, only threatened our way of life.
            Vigorous public debate is essential to a healthy democracy.  That is my primary reason for continuing to write my Update from the Heartland blog – a vigorous public debate.  Yes, we can respectfully disagree.
            I share your perspective about learning.  I have long believed the day we stop learning is the day we die . . . and, I intend to push that day out as far as I possibly can.
            Hope is real and hope is alive and well.  There is always hope.  The human race has faced dark days before, and we shall overcome.

            No comments from Update no.727.

           My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

23 November 2015

Update no.727

Update from the Heartland
No.727
16.11.15 – 22.11.15
To all,

            The follow-up news items:
-- Director of the Federal'naya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti (FSB) Alexander Vasilyevich Bortnikov publicly claimed his agency has determined that MetroJet Flight 9268 [724] was brought down by a one-kilogram (2.2 pounds mass) on-board bomb made of TNT (TriNitroToluene).  I have seen no evidence to support such a claim, and while TNT would work quite well in this instance, it is not a contemporary explosive of choice as it is less stable and less malleable than many other forms of explosives readily available to those to kill in this manner.
            That’s nice, but I don’t much care what the FSB Director thinks happened.  All I care about is what the evidence says.
            The ISIL, jihadi, electronic magazine Dabiq released an image purportedly showing the soda can bomb smuggled onto the aircraft in the aft baggage compartment that they claim brought down MetroJet 9268.  Presuming the 12-ounce, aluminum, pineapple juice can was filled with a high-order explosive compound, it would be quite sufficient to break-up a pressurized, A-321 aircraft.  If they used a contemporary plastic explosive, the can bomb would be approximately 450 grams, rather than 1 kilogram.  Regardless, such a bomb, especially near a major structural component like the pressure bulkhead would be quite sufficient to compromise a passenger jet under 8 psi pressure differential.  ‘Officials’ are claiming they are convinced an improvised explosive device smuggled onto the aircraft by ISIL agents or supporters at Sharm al-Sheik airport destroyed the aircraft.  For the record at this moment, I have seen no evidence whatsoever the ISIL or ‘official’ claims are accurate.  Let us not jump to conclusions before we see the physical proof.

            To be frank and blunt, I am amazed and disappointed at the number of voices pressuring President Obama to commit ground troops back into Iraq and now Syria to root out ISIL operatives.   I remember the handwringing as President Bush approached his decision to commit U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.  I argued then as I do now that the commitment of military forces (land, air or sea) to combat operations should be the choice of last resort, and once that decision is made, the commitment should be overwhelming in operations, logistics, industrial and societal support.  We (and here I mean the United States of America) have made the mistake of war on the cheap, i.e. half-assed, ever since the extraordinary effort of World War II, e.g., Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.  The only exception was the Gulf War of 1991.  We can argue about the intelligence assessment or the decision process that led President Bush to pull the trigger on Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, but once that decision was made, his biggest mistake was listening to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld who bludgeoned the generals to fight the war on the cheap.  General Shinseki [227] did his best to speak truth to power, but it cost him his job.  Most of us should remember the rampant looting in the aftermath of the fall of the Hussein regime in Iraq; there were grossly insufficient troops on the ground to secure the country after Saddam was eliminated.  So, when we hear about committing U.S. ground forces to defeat ISIL in the Levant, that should be translated into 500,000 to 1,000,000 troops to include military government of the remnants and security for the country, meaning police, intelligence, border security, supply, support and reconstruction.  We should either be all-in or do our best to contain the threat.

           Why is it that Donald Trump is perpetually and persistently explaining, deflecting and obfuscating on his ill-chosen, emotional responses?  What is it that some people see than I am wholly unable to sense in any form?  He says idiotic things, and then comes up with any old lame reason to say in essence, “just kidding.”  Is this really what we want as our commander-in-chief?  I cannot imagine why anyone would even remotely consider him a viable candidate to be President of the United States of America.  I would rather have an ill-spoken, humble and well-intentioned president than a narcissistic, ego-centric, self-aggrandizing man who vilifies anyone and everyone who even hints at disagreement with him, and whose mantra is ‘I have a plan, trust me.’

            Continuing comment from Update no.702:
[NOTE: Yes, the Update number is correct . . . better late than never.]
 . .  a third party insertion:
“The whole ISIS crises has put WW III on hold, especially now that the Russians and the Chinese are beginning to look like the good guys while Uncle Sam is looking like as fool.”
 . . . to which the contributor responded:
“I don't know [anon.], I'm with you on this but it seems everything is a MATRIX and even though I turned on the fog lights, I am not seeing things as clearly as before.”
My reply:
            While I disagree with both the current Russian and PRC governments, the people are good people and do not deserve war.  Yet, both governments are acting in very offensive and aggressive ways with their neighbors as well as threatening NATO member states.
            I do not interpret the Obama administration’s timidity as weakness or foolish.  Diplomacy is better than combat.  He has pulled the trigger in the past, and I doubt he will failure to pull the trigger in the future, e.g., deployment of the USS Lassen and a section of B-52’s to challenge the PRC hegemony in the South China Sea.  Let’s not be so quick to spill American blood in some distant civil war.
 . . . Round two:
“True, diplomacy is always better route than battle/war.
“Let me ask you Cap, because you are a very well studied gent and I believe fair, what do you believe about the perceptions we are told Russian and China may have about our own expansion both as USA and through NATO?  One might say my assertion is just propaganda extended by the Russians, but if you look at the maps of our military extensions/footprint, it seems we are differing than what might have been promised to Russia as they fragmented/crumbled from the Soviet Union.

“I am trying to be open-minded:  While we might believe Russia or PRC is provocative, is there any chance we are too, which makes the game all that more dangerous?”
 . . . my reply to round two:
            Re: what do you believe about the perceptions we are told Russian and China may have about our own expansion both as USA and through NATO?”  Well, the immediate answer to your query depends directly and solely upon perspective.  I am certain our overtures to a free Ukraine are seen, perceived and propagandized as United States meddling in the internal affairs of Russia (AKA Soyuz Sovetskikh Sotsialisticheskikh Respublik).  I imagine Putin and his Politburo cronies still see Ukraine as Soviet, and thus the sole domain of Russia.  Ukraine is and of right should be a free and independent nation with sovereignty to decide the path they wish to take.  The Orange Revolution of 2004 and the ouster of Yanukovich were a freedom movement to the West and a rebellion to Russia.  I have seen no evidence whatsoever that the United States or NATO have made any attempt to make Ukraine a vassal state of the West, so where is the expansion of which you speak?  The same is true for the PRC in the South China Sea.  The sandbars, coral reefs and atolls of the region have been disputed and claimed by virtually all the neighboring countries.  What right does the PRC have in physically possessing anything?  History?  How far back in history do we go to establish ownership?
            Re: While we might believe Russia or PRC is provocative, is there any chance we are too, which makes the game all that more dangerous?  I fail to see the provocative actions by the United States to which you allude.  The PRC does not own Fiery Cross Reef [696] et al.  This situation is no different from someone claiming a public park was ancestral land from centuries ago and started building a fence around it, building a house on it, and warning everyone to not trespass under threat of being shot.  Are we simply just to say, oh well, throw up our hands in resignation, or do we defend our right of passage?  If anything, I believe we have acted with far too much timidity, and because of that paucity of response, we are moving toward greater risk of war.  I do not see a positive outcome from what is happening.  So, my answer, no, I do not see our actions as provocative.
 . . . Round three:
“Thank you as always Cap, for your analysis/opinion!  Some may suggest others are taking advantage of our lack of action/leadership??”
 . . . a different third-party contributor added:
“Amazing, actually incredibly mind boggling that your respondent sees no meddling or the serious subterfuge against Russia!!!!!!  Good grief, not only is it blatantly clear by US actions on Russia's borders, that only the wholly blind can not see, but its documented in thousands of publications, even by some honest analysts in influential US think-tanks, like Foreign Affairs and the National Interest, as well as by some non brainwashed UK counterparts in Chatham House and various European think-tanks.
“And at the very least, the US behaves in a provocative way in the South China Sea, even though I wholly agree China under international law has no right to hog almost that entire sea region.
“Whatever the case, this heavy handed, ugly, clumsy and dirty way the US tries to intimidate its competitors is NOTHING but symbolic to its increasing decline as the ‘sole’ superpower.  It's about time, and thank God bullies never last long as they serve only to endanger world peace, as we so clearly see in the last 20 some years.
“All the more good reason that great powers must have containing powers to balance them and neuter their hostile actions.  The world was a much safer place during the cold war.”
 . . . to which our contributor added:
“I have attached three maps found on Google, one is USA military bases worldwide, #2 is NATO bases, #3 is Russian bases and/or influence/relations.”
 . . . my reply to round three:
            As I said in my previous reply, the answers to your original queries depend directly upon perspective.  Ships and aircraft have every right of free transit in international waters and airspace.  What is provocative about exercising our right of free passage?  So, if the PRC has no right to sovereignty over Fiery Cross Reef or the other reclaimed islands, then what right do they have to deny safe transit to ships and aircraft in the vicinity of those disputed coral reefs?
            Further, is the Ukraine a sovereign nation?  Do the Ukrainian people have a right to determine who they wish to associate with?  Conversely, is the Ukraine just another disenfranchised republic of Russia?  The answers will largely establish perspective.
            The United States has not always acted with the most noble of intentions, but . . . “superpower bully” . . . really?  I respectfully suggest someone take a closer look at the facts and study up on international law.  We have one group accusing the United States of being dispassionate for refusing to be the international police, while at the very same time with the exact same situation another group accuses the United States of being a unilateral superpower bully.
            As the song phrase goes, “You have to stand for something, or you will fall for anything.”
 . . . Round four:
“You are referring to international rule of law, that nations can agree on, and operate within the agreements/treaties, I suppose.
“I was always amazed that Russia did not make a fuss when we went into Afghanistan and/or Iraq in 2001/2003, respectively.
“We shall see what interesting things come our way in this complicated world.”
 . . . my reply to round four:
            Yes, you are correct; that is precisely what I am referring to in this discussion.
            I’m not so surprised.  Perhaps, the Russians supported our efforts to deal with al-Qa’ida, Taliban and state sponsored terrorism, or they were happy to let us get mired down in Afghanistan, as they did 20 years earlier.  Who knows?  But, they did not react publicly.  After all, they sanctioned overflights of their country in support of those operations.
            We do indeed live in interesting times.

            Comments and contributions from Update no.726:
“Paris still figures heavily here with the BBC filling their news programmes from Paris.
“Putin and Cameron shaking hands today, neither looking especially vibrantly delighted. As I expect you know our parliament have not authorised the bombing of Isis, unlike Russia whose leaders probably do not need to ask. So are we doing our bit?  We are being questioned and will be found wanting.
“But is destroying this evil organisation over there the complete answer for these ‘operatives’ are leaking across Europe as migrants. A worrying scene indeed and one that needs our leaders including Mr. Putin to find some urgent answers.”
My response:
            Paris has dominated our Press coverage as well.
            Re: RAF bombing of ISIL.  I would not be so hard on Parliament, Her Majesty’s Government or Her Majesty’s Air Force.  Your countrymen are not wanting.  I would be willing to bet a dollar to donuts that MI6, MI5 and GCHQ are quite engaged in this process.
            Better to fight them over there than at home.  And yet, no, our engagement of ISIL cannot be confined to Syria & Iraq.  We must fight Islamo-fascism everywhere and most specifically in predominately Muslim neighborhoods and in mosques espousing radical conduct.  I am convinced the War on Islamo-fascism is not just against fighters & bombers, but more importantly against clerics and ideologues promoting jihad and violent action.
            I am in favor of helping the innocents among the refugees, but all freedom-loving countries and peoples must get serious about immigration control and enforcement.
            It is quite sad that Putin (and whatever the Politburo is called these days) have decided to adopt such aggressive and hegemonic conduct.  The Russians are actually far closer to the West than their current political leadership has allowed – very sad to me.  We could do so much more with Russia and NATO together than at arm’s length.

A different contribution:
“Why don't we quickly and compassionately temporarily suspend all entry into our country from Muslim countries (directly or indirectly) and offer to pay Saudi Arabia $10,000 each for every refugee they accept into their country from their neighbor fellow Muslims' countries?  As of now, it appears that would cost us nothing, but it would improve our security immensely.
“Surely our POTUS, in spite of his life-long sympathies for all things Muslim, knows that it is impossible to vet thousands of so-called and self-proclaimed refugees adequately.  To do what he proposes is evidence not so much of ignorance or prejudice based upon his upbringing and political leanings but of sinister intent on completing the destruction of the greatest nation on earth.”
My reply:
            A pretty good idea, actually . . . certainly better than bringing un-vet-able people into this Grand Republic, especially with a dysfunctional registration, tracking and immigration enforcement system.  I have always thought refugees are best supported and protected in the region, in an environment they are familiar with in life.
            I do not share you apparently pessimistic view of POTUS.  However, I do share your serious concern that the current administration may be weighting compassion heavier than should be in the risk equation.  We know POTUS wants to shelter refugees from ISIL, but we do not know the criteria they intend to use for admission to this country.  Let’s be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water.

Another contribution:
"Of note is that the Russians used about 23 long-range strategic bombers in a recent mission. These included Tu-160 Blackjacks, Tu-22M Backfires, and Tu-95M Bears – the latter being used in actual combat for the first time since they first appeared in the 1950's. They flew from Mozdok Air Base in North Ossetia, which could be interesting later.
25 Russian long-range strategic bombers in action over Syria for the very first time
Nov 17 2015
Russian Air Force heavy bombers made their first appearance over Syria yesterday night.
[The article referenced:]
“25 Russian long-range strategic bombers in action over Syria for the very first time – Russian Air Force heavy bombers made their first appearance over Syria yesterday night.”
by David Cenciotti
theaviationist.com
Published: Nov 17 2015
My response:
            Yeah, I’ve seen some of the released videos from their missions.  I wonder what flight path they used and whether they coordinated with the countries involved?
            Could get interesting . . . well, even more so.
 . . . a follow-up comment:
“I understand that they coordinated any overflights.
“And check this on the Kh-101, which was on the video.  Not sure whether it was actually used, but they seem to want us to think so.”
Putin Blasts Syria With New Stealth Missile—and Shows the World He Can Strike From 1,700 Miles Away
It wasn’t that long ago that the U.S. Air Force seemed to be the only one capable of attacking from half a continent away. Then came Russia’s ‘anti-ISIS’ strikes.
By David Axe
11.19.158:00 PM ET
[The referenced article:]
“Putin Blasts Syria With New Stealth Missile—and Shows the World He Can Strike From 1,700 Miles Away – It wasn’t that long ago that the U.S. Air Force seemed to be the only one capable of attacking from half a continent away. Then came Russia’s ‘anti-ISIS’ strikes.”
by David Axe
thedailybeast.com
Published: 11.19.15; 8:00 PM ET
. . . my follow-up response:
            Almost sounds like a perpetual motion machine.

One last thread contribution for this week:
“Yesterday I read in Breitbart news that on the Arizona/Mexico border, CBP took into custody some males who were from Pakistan and Afghanistan.  I told a friend that alarms me more than Syrians.  And the day before, it was on the wire services that some Syrians were taken into CBP detention on the Texas/Mexico border.
“And today we have the Raddison Hotel attack in Mali, the former French colony.  I read but have not confirmed, that a Belgium diplomat may be one of the deceased victims, from the Islamists that attacked.  The security along with what I read were USA special forces, quickly took control back at the hotel.  I suspect special forces may have been deployed/guarding, due to the meeting at the hotel amongst various country diplomats.”
My reply:
            I’ve heard similar reports.  This should be no surprise . . . disappointment, yes . . . but, no surprise.  The CBP has been under-resourced in perpetuity.  What is worse, the Federales have refused, failed or something equivalent to create a system in depth down to the local level for enforcement of immigration law.  Further, even with a ‘perfect’ system, trained operatives can penetrate any system, i.e., where there is a will there is a way.
            Re: Bamako attack.  An al-Qa’ida affiliate claimed responsibility for that one.  So, now, we have dueling terrorist attacks begging for attention.  I think the reaction was primarily Malian units with French support.  All I’ve heard about American involvement was limited to two agents.  This one had shades of Mumbai [26.11.2008] [363/4].
            We live in a violent and brutal world.
 . . . Round two:
“True on the CBP and challenges they have with such porous borders.  And the perps who do human/drug smuggling keep innovating from complex tunnels to the guys who were smuggling drugs on jet skis, entering into the San Diego local waters from Mexico.  What will they think of next?
“Yes, you are correct on the Mali attack being an al-Qa'ida affiliate or 'franchise.'  I suspect al-Qa'ida feels like the child not paid attention to, as ISIS/ISIL/IS seems to get the headlines theses days.  And that presents a problem of competition between ISIS and al-Qa'ida.  Think you are also correct that most of the force protection were French troops/SF.
“Yes, our world has been violent and brutal and hopefully this will not trend-up.  Let's hope Belgium is calm on Sunday, as is Paris, NYC, Atlanta, Washington, D.C., and Rome.  Those were all locations named that are to be attacked.”
 . . . my reply to round two:
            Re: CBP.  We have never been serious about controlling our borders, or regulating immigration for that matter.  In this context, I use the word ‘immigration’ in the broader, more inclusive sense, including visitors with visas and those under the visa waiver program.  Once people enter for any reason by any means, we have been and remain virtually impotent to know where they are and enforce limitations.  The borders are important, but they are just symptomatic for the much larger problem; and, I do hear any of our politicos, current or wannabe, talking about solving the internal tracking issue.
            Re: Bamako attack.  That is my understanding as well.
            Re: Belgium.  It is truly sad to see Brussels streets virtually devoid of people and transport.  To me, this is the wrong reaction, in that the Islamo-fascist terrorists have achieved their aims – disrupt our lives and make us fearful.  Hopefully, the Belgians will quickly follow Parisians.
 . . . to which a third-party added:
“1.  There are plenty of pilots on this blog, but the aeronautical engineers (plane designers and structural engineers) haves so far failed to identify themselves.  WHERE you place that 2 lbs (apparent from the size of a 12 oz soda can) of plastic explosive is extremely crucial.
“2.  ‘Special forces’ is undefined.  There is a HELL of a lot of difference between the Green Berets, Rangers, Seals, and Delta (or the – civilian - FBI Hostage Team, for that matter). Not that the SAF (Brit) and other may have been there instead.
“3.  What the heck was so important going on in that hotel in Mali that was important enough to attract an el-Qaeda attack in the first place?”
 . . . Round three:
“[o]n Item #1, my take is, if in fact plastics were used by a suicide bomber/passenger, he was seated near the aft pressure bulkhead/tail control surfaces.  If true, I would guess this was a strategic plan on best possible location in the cabin.
“My understanding about the Raddison Hotel Blu in Bamako, was some diplomats from various countries were meeting there (which may explain upgraded/enhanced force protection that was able to rescue the 100+ hostages and hopefully terminate the actors who were waiting for virgins).
“Sourcing Wikipedia, it appears two groups carried out the attack: Al-Mourabitoun, in cooperation with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.  I heard on NPR that one set of attackers may have been driving a vehicle with diplomatic plates, confusing security.   Again from Wikipedia's latest update:
A delegation of the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie was in the hotel at the time of the attack.[5] Ten Chinese citizens; twenty Indian citizens;[20] about a dozen American citizens, including personnel from the US Embassy;[21] seven Algerian citizens, including six diplomats; two Russian citizens; two Moroccan citizens; seven Turkish Airlines staff; and an unknown number of French citizens were reported to have been among those taken hostage.[11] Twelve crew from Air France, who were also in the hotel, were extracted and safely released.[22] Three United Nations staff were safely removed from the hotel, but it remains unknown how many were caught inside. Several delegates from MINUSMA were present at the hotel attending a meeting on the peace process in the country.[23] More than 100 hostages were freed.[24]’
“6 Russians were killed in the attack.  I suspect Putin and Russians are feeling a desire to do something soon.”
 . . . my reply to round three:
            Since [anon.] may be concerned about qualifications, I am a former experimental test pilot, or engineering test pilot, if you will, and as such have been deeply involved in aircraft design from structures to systems.  My degrees are in engineering.
            Re: placing explosives.   The effectiveness of a small explosive charge increases rapidly as the fuselage pressurizes.  Whether 450gm or 1 kg of contemporary explosive, at 8 psi delta P, the aircraft structure can be seriously compromised, i.e., less turbulence tolerance, ‘g’ tolerance, et cetera.  There are notable examples of survival, e.g., Aloha Airlines Flight 243 [28.4.1988] and United Airlines flight 811 [24.2.1989].  In this instance, I urge caution.  All we have so far is ISIL’s claim and alleged bomb image, and the FSB Director’s public statement.  We have no proper investigative evidence.  If it was a bomb, the evidence should be readily discernible and documented.   There have been some ‘rumor’ leaks (if we give them even that rudimentary level of credibility) that the soda can bomb was placed at the aft end of the aft baggage compartment, which would in turn be at or very close to the aft pressure bulkhead (a major structural assembly).  I have confidence, if the investigation is done properly, they will determine exactly what happened, if the quality of investigation is comparable to the OVV investigation of the MH17 shootdown.  Regardless, whether a suicide bomber or a planted explosive, they should be able to sort it out.
            Re: Bamako attack.  Quite so, there are indeed significant differences between special operations units in this country and others.  Each group seems to have unique specialty operational capabilities as well.  I have not seen any definitive reason for the attack beyond the obvious, i.e., western hotel with western guests.  The attack appears to have been a smaller scale version of the Mumbai attack [26.11.2008] – a reused template.

A submission by a contributor of an unknown author:
“Recently received third party briefing document on Syria.
[from an unknown third-party author:]
‘President Assad (who is bad) is a nasty guy who got so nasty his people rebelled and the Rebels (who are good) started winning.
‘But then some of the rebels turned a bit nasty and are now called Islamic State (who are definitely bad) and some continued to support democracy (who are still good).
‘So the Americans (who are good) started bombing Islamic State (who are bad) and giving arms to the Syrian Rebels (who are good) so they could fight Assad (who is still bad) which was good.
'By the way, there is a breakaway state in the north run by the Kurds who want to fight IS (which is a good thing) but the Turkish authorities think they are bad, so we have to say they are bad whilst secretly thinking they're good and giving them guns to fight IS (which is good) but that is another matter.
'Getting back to Syria. President Putin (bad, as he invaded Crimea and the Ukraine and killed lots of folks including that nice Russian man in London with polonium) has decided to back Assad (who is still bad) by attacking IS (who are also bad) which is sort of a good thing?
‘But Putin (still bad) thinks the Syrian Rebels (who are good) are also bad, and so he bombs them too, much to the annoyance of the Americans (who are good) who are busy backing and arming the rebels (who are also good).
‘Now Iran (who used to be bad, but now they have agreed not to build any nuclear weapons and bomb Israel are now good) are going to provide ground troops to support Assad (still bad) as are the Russians (bad) who now have ground troops and aircraft in Syria.
‘So a Coalition of Assad (still bad) Putin (extra bad) and the Iranians (good, but in a bad sort of way) are going to attack IS (who are bad) which is a good thing, but also the Syrian Rebels (who are good) which is bad.
‘Now the British (obviously good, except Corbyn who is probably bad) and the Americans (also good) cannot attack Assad (still bad) for fear of upsetting Putin (bad) and Iran (good / bad) and now they have to accept that Assad might not be that bad after all compared to IS (who are super bad).
‘So Assad (bad) is now probably good, being better than IS (no real choice there) and since Putin and Iran are also fighting IS that may now make them good. America (still good) will find it hard to arm a group of rebels being attacked by the Russians for fear of upsetting Mr Putin (now good) and that mad ayatollah in Iran (also good) and so they may be forced to say that the Rebels are now bad, or at the very least abandon them to their fate. This will lead most of them to flee to Turkey and on to Europe or join IS (still the only constantly bad group).
'To Sunni Muslims, an attack by Shia Muslims (Assad and Iran) backed by Russians will be seen as something of a Holy War, and the ranks of IS will now be seen by the Sunnis as the only Jihadis fighting in the Holy War and hence many Muslims will now see IS as good (doh!).
‘Sunni Muslims will also see the lack of action by Britain and America in support of their Sunni rebel brothers as something of a betrayal (might have a point) and hence we will be seen as bad.
‘So now we have America (now bad) and Britain (also bad) providing limited support to Sunni Rebels (bad) many of whom are looking to IS (good / bad) for support against Assad (now good) who, along with Iran (also good) and Putin (also, now, unbelievably, good) are attempting to retake the country Assad used to run before all this started?’

“I hope that this clears it all up for you, I know that I am ready to debate any of the above on either/any side.”
My response:
           Seems like a fairly good, light-hearted description of a difficult, complex, geo-political situation.

           My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)

16 November 2015

Update no.726

Update from the Heartland
No.726
9.11.15 – 15.11.15
To all,

            The follow-up news items:
-- The MetroJet Flight 9268 investigation [724] has been overshadowed.  Numerous press opinions reflect concerns about the ambiguity surrounding exactly what happened, and potentially who caused it, if it was a criminal act.  The answers to what happened lay in the wreckage of the aircraft.  We can only hope the investigation team performs a methodical, careful, deliberate examination of the debris field before they moved parts, and then complete a thorough, detail, forensic examination of the wreckage to determine precisely what happened.  From that point and if appropriate, we can identify the perpetrators and seek remedy.  Until that time, we should not jump to conclusions as some have done in attributing culpability to ISIL (the group has publicly claimed responsibility, but the evidence must validate that claim before it is real).

            Friday the 13th, Paris suffered a heinous coordinated attack by what appears so far to be Islamo-fascist operatives, or at least sympathizers.  A lot of disassociated information makes correlation more difficult; however, it appears at least three (3) teams attacked six (6) sites in Paris across a 33-minute span of time – clearly coordinated and well-planned.  ISIL has again claimed responsibility, however, to date, I am not aware of any direct connections to establish that linkage.  Président de la République Française François Gérard Georges Nicolas Hollande proclaimed ISIL was the perpetrator and initiated military action against ISIL sites in Syria, with the assistance of U.S. intelligence.  The linkage information has not been made public as yet, although at least one of the attackers was a migrant from Syria through Greece.
            I suspect the ISIL linkage will be definitively established.  The Schengen Agreement of 1985, which established open borders among member states, has been drawn into serious question.  I truly hope the European Union does not step back from the Schengen Agreement, but rather reinforce it with a serious effort to enforce immigration controls at the periphery of the member states.
            Citizens of this Grand Republic should not and must not be tisk-tisk’ing our European cousins.  We have had blatantly porous borders for decades.  Further, we have presidential candidates beating on their chest like some, silver back, mountain gorilla about massive, deportation raids to compensate for the failure of the federal government to enforce immigration law.  There are lessons to be learned in this tragedy for all freedom-loving people.
            More opinions are offered in the Comment Section below.

            News from the economic front:
-- EuroStat reported the European Union's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% in 3Q2015, and rose 1.6% from 3Q2014. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate was down from 0.4% in 2Q2015, and translates into an annualized growth rate of 1.2%, the weakest since 3Q2014.  The eurozone economy slowed in the third quarter as exports to large developing economies weakened. The third quarter performance makes it more likely the European Central Bank will expand its stimulus programs in December.
-- Japan's GDP contracted 0.8% on an annualized basis in 3Q2015 – the second consecutive quarterly decline, as consumer spending remained soft and businesses cut back on investment amid jitters over the economic slowdown in the PRC.

           Continuing comments from Update no.724:
“Well said on Metrojet #9268.  I was never too happy that the FBI seemed to displace the NTSB in TWA#800. 
“It was interesting I provided a lift for one of the Solar Turbine domestic/international techs on Sunday, and he said he was advised by their travel agency to expect flight delays ‘due to the Lufthansa strike.’  I thought that was interesting since he was flying from San Diego to Denver on this sortie, whereas usually he is going overseas.  I wonder if the ‘travel delay’ may have something to do with beefed-up security in USA, due to Metrojet #9268.  What is interesting in watching various 'expert witnesses' on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, are how many of them say how even in America, we still have big gaps in security with airport/airliner security.  Since 9/11, I've heard various accounts about how TSA is not vetting their own people too well.
“On Carson:  I agree with exactly what you opine.  One of the things that has caused me to place my own red flag up on Carson, is his flip-flop of a passive kind of persona, folksy, super calm, then he quickly transitioned into a much more aggressive man, with the press, when the heat got turned on.  Whether this is a passive-aggressive personality, or Carson unable to handle the heat, or if his handlers are telling him to come across as more aggressive, I do not know.  If his reaction is natural, I have issues with that.  If some of the things he said he did when he was younger, that are unable to be substantiated by the press or witnesses, like stabbing a guy in the gut only to have a belt buckle deflect it, due to sudden anger, well I do not see that behavior no matter how long ago, as being presidential.  In fact, I would not hire someone like that if I had my own company like once before.  Sorry.  I do not care if you say you've been redeemed or that was a past anger management issue, I find that troubling.  I find it troubling Carson may have made-up fiction for his book calling it the truth.  I am sorry, but I am starting to become very concerned about Carson, as much as I have liked the guy.  At least with Trump we sort of have a loose lips WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get) kind of persona.  Trump is more the Billy Carter but with enough sensibility not to go urinate on the side of a building with the Press Corps watching him.
“On the HS student, you might have read my sentence incorrectly or I wrote it without clarification.  I was suggesting that I almost think in this day and age, Deputy Fields would have been better in the eye of public opinion, to Tase the student rather than tossing her upside down in her student desk, then dragging her on the floor.  We've been accustomed to seeing people Tased for minor offenses, including the guy that was asking Kerry if he was in Skull & Bones, at University of Florida, 17-September 2007.  It became known as the "Don't Tase Me Bro!" incident with viral video.  While some cops might be too quick to Tase people (including old people, disabled folks, and kids), I do assert that the Taser has probably helped reduce many injuries to combatants because it use to be batons, carotid artery chokeholds, and more.  It has perhaps, made it safer for the perps but definitely much safer for law enforcement to deploy a Taser.  On the young woman in the classroom that Deputy Fields arrested, the flipping her in her student chair could have actually broken her neck, which then he'd be dealing with a much different situation than just being out of a job.  I suspect what will happen is after another 300 news cycles (which there are many per day), Deputy Fields will be hired by another agency, and will get a job back in L.E.  I agree with you Cap that parenting was missing with that young student.  Of course it does not help that CNN and the racial dividers like Al Sharpton (and many more I will leave out at this point) program into that young student, the anger and anti-police attitudes and behavior, not to mention she lacked any respect for the teacher, the fellow students, and even the principal who had come into the class asking her to please leave the class, which she failed to comply with any of them.
“It should be noted, that other students in the school where Deputy Fields once was a school resource officer, including African-Americans, worked to save his job after the incident.  Some wrote he was the coolest cop in the world, and always treated them well.  Too bad the alphabet news agencies and other sinister elements trying to race bait our country, turned it into a white vs. black kind of deal, once again.”
My response:
            Re: TWA 800.  Likewise.  I always did and still do think the FBI reacted emotionally to a sensational and equally unusual event.  I will also say their overly aggressive actions compromised the safety investigation.  We are verging on similar compromise on Metrojet 9268.
            Re: TSA.  One thing I learned many years ago . . . there is no such thing as perfect security.  Where there is a will there is a way.  That said, “60 Minutes” had a segment last Sunday about deficiencies on OPM’s contracting and review of background security investigations.  One the agencies of concern was TSA.  If there are holes / gaps, they will be exploited by our enemies.
            Re: Carson.  I share your concerns.  I have no idea whether his claims are true or not, but I do know he has NOT handled this situation well.  In fact, I am tempted to call it inept.  For him to claim no other political candidate has been subjected to such Press scrutiny (or abuse, depending upon perspective) defies logic, reason and even just a modicum of knowledge of the political process.  I have not been a fan of his politics; I am even less of a fan now.
            Re: HS student.  I cannot see how a TASER would have been a better or even more tolerable approach – an unarmed, young female versus a trained, fit, male police officer – I don’t think so.  Yes, I do agree, Deputy Fields takedown of the female student was risky and more emotional than good police work.  Yes, TASERs have saved lives, but a simple wrist or forearm lock probably would have done the trick.
            Re: Deputy Fields.  Yes, I had heard of the local support as well.  Yes, the way that incident was spun was most unfortunate and not helpful for our peace and safety.

           Comments and contributions from Update no.725:
“Just returning to the surface after a fairly intense spell of ‘Remembrance  services, concerts and Parades’.
“We now have our school briefings to complete during this week- we will address something like 2500 pupils this year at primary and high school levels. This work we feel is so utterly important, the younger generations must learn of the horrors of war, that it is not a computer game and soldiers do not rise from the dead. As a child myself I can recall German air raids and at four years a vivid memory of a V1 buzzing across our house in Kent with mother frantically dragging us in from the garden. The noise alone made by that ‘cruise missile’ stays entrenched deeply in my memory.
“The youngsters of today, thank God, know nothing of the futility of war and need to be told of its consequences.  
“Today I took two veterans with me today, both in their nineties. I took the youngsters back in a time machine to 1941 when my veterans were their age and off to war. It seemed to work.
“On another subject if I may. I remember your update some years since talking about assisted dying and how it can be obtained in some states in your homeland but not others. Was it your mother’s condition that brought this subject to the fore? Please forgive me if that is wrong Cap.
“My reason for resurrecting this matter with you is truly sad. We lost our standard bearer in August, a retired Welsh Guardsman and whose long and splendid service involved guarding Rudolf Hess at Spandau. What a story of service life he had to tell that I regret I never recorded.
“However Cap, he died an unfitting and distressing death at the hands of cancer. We visited most days and his deteriorating condition made us squirm and treble in revulsion. No human being should be allowed to suffer as he did. Unable to speak and thrashing about in his bed making noises that only spoke of death. It was a most dreadful end for an old soldier. I asked for something to ease his suffering but nothing of any real effect could be done. It was a most tragic end for a brave and determined old soldier. Under this circumstance if they had given me the needle I would have asked him for forgiveness and administered whatever it took. This experience was tragedy beyond any other I have witnessed and distressing in the extreme. In such circumstances I would most certainly support a voluntary end of life agreement with my carers. Regrettably illegal in this part of the world.”
My reply:
            Well done with your annual work on behalf of veterans, and especially with informing our younger generations.  That is one of many reasons I work so hard to make sure the history is correct in my novels; it might be the only ‘touch’ readers have with those events.  So nice, generous and necessary to make sure the children remember.
            Absolutely amazing and we learn more everyday.  It had not dawned on me that you might have experienced the sounds of V1 attacks.  Kent was under the primary path for V1’s heading to London.  That had to be frightening . . . a very distinctive sound.  Do you have any awareness of V2 attacks?
            Re: death with dignity.  Your memory is excellent.  Yes, my mother’s passing affected me and inspired my evangelism with respect to death with dignity.  My efforts in Kansas continue without much progress.  Just an FYI: my father passed suddenly without the protracted suffering my Mother experienced.  Your description of your veteran’s passing sounds distinctly similar to my Mother – a very undignified passing.  As I recall, at least the law in the UK means the Crown Prosecution Service will not criminalize those who seek their right in Switzerland or other countries in Europe.  We must continue to press for the law to respect our rights and our dignity.  The laws in states where legal in this Grand Republic require the individual be lucid and must be capable of the final decision.
            Re: Hess at Spandau.  Oh my, quite a story . . . and now that story is lost.
 . . . round two:
“That’s another school done…only 159 students this time. Tomorrow we have a high school and then two minutes silence with our bugler at the village memorial.
“I knew you’d be interested in my encounter with the suffering of our fine friend. It was a dreadful experience and one I may never delete from my memory. Our brains don’t work like our computers, there is no delete button. But one must try to recall the better times-the happy memories and try to push the worst into the darker corners. Where hopefully they will remain.
“V1 [sic, meant V2], no thank God. They must have soared over the top of us out of sight and sound. What weapons they both were, especially for the period. It’s a good job our forefathers stopped them.”
 . . . my reply to round two:
            Remembrance / Veterans Day.  God bless those who have served.
            Hope everything goes well at the high school tomorrow.
            Living through a protracted, lingering death cannot be forgotten.  I have never been a fan of funerals; I favor celebration of a life well lived.
            Yes, quite so, the V2 had a near vertical, supersonic descent, so whatever sound came was after impact.  Especially with respect to the advanced weapons like the V1 & V2, imagine what might have been if Hitler had support the vengeance weapons earlier in the war?  Thank goodness things played out the way they did.
 . . . Round three:
“Thanks again for your best wishes. Two more high school visits and then we can relax a little.
“Although I can’t recall the name of the village in France we visited a massive Nazi bunker where these weapons were assembled for firing. This entire construction consisting of a massive underground dome was built by slaves who died in their dozens. An extraordinary desperate experience, I’m not certain but I believe it was a target for our Tallboys. (when I was on training we used to sit on one of those having our tea break!)
Indeed Cap, it was a damned good piece of work that our boys together won the day.”
 . . . my reply to round three:
            From your description, I suspect you are referring to La Coupole d'Helfaut-Wizernes, which was hit many times during construction.  The sight was hit more than once by Lancaster bombers, dropping the 6T Tallboy bombs, also used to finally sink DKM Tirpitz, among other German targets of the day.  I’ve not yet visited the site, but I’m sure it had to be impressive.
            Damned good piece of work indeed and not the last time we have collaborated against a common foe.
 . . . Round four:
“I’m at a loss to describe my feelings this evening after the atrocities in Paris. Maybe tomorrow my friend.  Je suis Charlie.”
 . . . my reply to round four:
           While the scale of the Paris attacks is not to 9/11 attacks, the consequences are the same.  The details of who and why are still emerging as I write, but it surely looks like violent, radical fundamentalism of al-Qa’ida has metastasized into the new form of ISIL.  The uncontrolled influx of “refugees” to the European Union has to be of enormous concern, as our collective enemy has found the means to utilize European generosity to bypass our security checks and thoroughly infiltrate our communities.
            I am fairly certain the security and intelligence services are in overdrive trying to assist the French in finding and prosecuting those who supported the killers, since they are dead.
            Je suis Français, en effet!  Vive la France!
 . . . Round five:
“It’s odd isn’t it, there must be something in our thought processes that puts a constraint on finding the deepest terms of disgust and horror when communicating on such an appalling act of brutality as in Paris Friday evening.
“I still find it damned difficult to conjure up the right prose and synonyms to express the way we all feel about yet another barbaric act of senseless savagery and hatred.
“What is to be done? And yes we have long been aware that there will be unwanted individuals slipping into Europe as refugees. We have an undisputed problem my friend but one that must be solved. We wish no more 9/11’s, London bus, Paris attacks, Beirut and others. Is the cause merely the suspect integration of the Muslim people in our cities or is it something deeper and sinister? I believe we know the answer to that Cap. If that is the answer then it will have to be destroyed and sent into the darkest pages of human history.”
 . . . my reply to round five:
            One thing is quite certain, ISIL (and al-Qa’ida et al) have been consistent – they want to return to the 7th Century, at least socially, since they are comfortable using 21st Century weapons to achieve their aims.  Further, they want everyone to take that journey with them.  Their ruthlessness and brutality are consistent with their aims, e.g., destroying any artifact in existence prior to 632 AD.
            I do not think the issue is Islam, Muslims or the integration of Muslims.  The majority of Muslims do NOT embrace the radical fundamentalism of ISIL, al-Qa’ida, or any of the other myriad radical manifestations.  I know more than a few Muslims who have assimilated quite well in western societies.  Some may still teach their children fundamentalist principles, but then again, there are Christians who teach their children in the same manner.  The issue for all us is the identification and interdiction of the radical, fundamentalist, Islamo-fascists, who seek world domination through violence.  In this sense, there is not much difference between Islamo-fascism and National Socialism of the last century.
            Yes, I’m afraid, radicalism of any kind must be eradicated.  I do not see much hope of redemption.  Thus, let us recognize reality and get on with the task at hand.  The German people survived the eradication process and are stronger today for the experience.

A different contribution:
“Note on the USS Lassen – one of my check hops at Saufley was by the late Commander Clyde Lassen.  I recall he was a low-key instructor.
“Regarding Carson, he had built himself up via his feel-good story, which was impressive.  But he also embellished it along the way, and maybe now really believes some of it.  Some it is demonstrably false, and he isn’t helped by his goofy statements on the pyramids.  Also his story on fronting for a health nostrum also damaged his credibility.  The West Point story was emblematic.  Remember that this was written about twenty years ago- so it was fresher in his mind.  And while he could be given some slack for the ‘scholarship’ part- he was also telling and writing that Gen Westmoreland was there and ‘offered’ him the scholarship.  Westmoreland’s  personal itinerary says that he was actually in Washington DC and playing tennis on that date.”
My response:
            Re: Lassen.  You have had some interesting characters in your life.
            Re: Carson.  Good comments.  He lost any remaining credibility he might have commanded.  This should be the death knell, but it will likely take a long time to play out.  I have fundamentally disagreed with his positions on virtually all social issues.

Another contribution:
“I noticed this past week had little coverage of Metrojet #9268.  It seemed the week's news cycles covered mostly presidential politics, especially the dual between Trump vs. Carson.  Then it was the twin bombings in Beirut.  Then the following day it was the tragic attacks in Paris.
“In the South China Sea, I understand a couple of our USAF B-52's flew through the contested territory, and while China issued warnings to our B-52's, thankfully no incident occurred.
“We live in interesting times Cap, as Trump proposes a ‘deportation force’ in America, as we see what happened in Paris (and all over Europe) with the bulk of refugees coming from Syria (and then the continent of Africa), and the reportage some of the Syrians flooding into Europe are being recruited into ISIS.  Will France have a deportation police?  Those crossing borders should be vetted with every database possible, but the problem for both Europe and America (etc.) is how to handle the enormous population of those already inside, who may have not been vetted properly, or are upstanding with no criminal/terrorist tendencies, and how do they get removed, or vetted.  We were told Friday that thousands of ISIS sympathizers posted Tweets applauding the Paris terrorist attacks.  Those account holders in my opinion, would be a great place to start to vet and/or deport immediately, or detain until further investigation can conclude such perps are not a threat.
“Sadly as much as I wanted to avoid the PRE-CRIME scenario (as mentioned previously and highlighted in the movie Minority Report), I think we are advancing that way and soon.”
My reply:
            Modern news cycles are like that . . . these are the times in which we live.
            What the PRC is doing in the South China Sea is wrong.  I hope, no I expect, the U.S. and other freedom-loving countries to continue challenging the PRC’s hegemonic actions in the area.
            The refugee situation in Europe has been a serious concern from the get-go.  Uncontrolled entry into any country is a definite risk and threat.  Any country should only allow individuals to enter who wish to adopt the culture of the host country, assimilate into society, and respect the governing principles of public conduct, and we must add, they have some skill or capability to enhance productivity, i.e., contribute to society.  I lived and worked in numerous foreign countries during my military service; I respected local culture, but we were there under a different aegis and for a specific mission.  I also lived and worked as a civilian in England and Italy for several years each.  I must say, both countries have far more controlled work permit and visa controls than this country has ever had.  While the entry constraints are comparable, keeping track of visitors once inside the country are dramatically different between the U.S. and at least what I experienced in England and Italy.  As I understand the statistics in this Grand Republic, the majority of people in the country illegally are visa-over-stay individuals.  I never over-stayed my visa.  I followed the constraints precisely.  I do not know what enforcement the British or Italians would have taken if I had violated my visa constraints, but I suspect it would have been progressively more aggressive.  I will also say, I did not feel the least bit burdens or diminished by the visa constraints.
            Re: “Minority Report” hypothesis.  I understand your concern, i.e., as portrayed in the movie.  However, as I have argued in the past, we need to get serious about domestic intelligence and predictive conduct.  The capability must be distinctly separate from law enforcement.  The closest contemporary structure I’ve seen is the relationship between MI5 and the Met in London.  We must find the means to regulate intelligence activities and avoid abuses reflected in the movie.  The over-looked “signs” of deviant behavior in serial or mass killers have long troubled me, and we must find the means to intercede before they harm other citizens.

            My very best wishes to all.  Take care of yourselves and each other.
Cheers,
Cap                        :-)